weathafella Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Euro Ens continue below normal days 11-15 and beyond. Gibbs sent me pic How's it beyond? I thought it only went out 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 How's it beyond? I thought it only went out 16 days. Euro Ens continue below normal days 11-15 and beyond. Gibbs sent me pic It starts to relax later in the period. Should be a nice cutter or two thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It starts to relax later in the period. Should be a nice cutter or two thrown in. We'll see. Pattern doesn't seem to support strong soueaster cutters..Suppressed seems more likely or waves running south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 We'll see. Pattern doesn't seem to support strong soueaster cutters..Suppressed seems more likely or waves running south of us Disagree. We'll have one next week possibly. But if I had to pick a date(s), it would be sometime from the 25-31 for an interesting threat somewhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 no shot at that rain to our southeast getting in here today ? gotta a noon tee time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The 2002 comparison continues with the change to cold maybe a week earlier in October in2002. The pattern relaxed and many were worried the previous winter was going to come back but the relaxation period was short and the pattern got established. We were in fairly deep winter by thanksgiving and off to the races thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The 2002 comparison continues with the change to cold maybe a week earlier in October in2002. The pattern relaxed and many were worried the previous winter was going to come back but the relaxation period was short and the pattern got established. We were in fairly deep winter by thanksgiving and off to the races thereafter. Don"t see a relaxation on the 6Z GEFS that is for sure. Damn Canada is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Don"t see a relaxation on the 6Z GEFS that is for sure. Damn Canada is cold It's not on any model verbatim except near AK. Thinking downstream sometime in early November...but you aren't going to hold this pattern forever. When the recurves go, so will this -EPO I think..but then we see if any SAI material shows up in December. Who knows...it's possible we may go back to blocking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Euro ens get the EPO impressively negative before starting to relax around Halloween. 10/24-10/31 should be pretty cold in the means. Hard to say anything on details yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Don"t see a relaxation on the 6Z GEFS that is for sure. Damn Canada is cold Pickles are tickled..Hopefully snowcover expands exponentially over the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It starts to relax later in the period. Should be a nice cutter or two thrown in.Do you think we torch once the pattern relaxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Do you think we torch once the pattern relaxes? Flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 We'll see. Pattern doesn't seem to support strong soueaster cutters..Suppressed seems more likely or waves running south of us What Scott is talking about is that lower heights are really consolidating around eastern canada/greenland/north pole. This is on both the GEFS and the Euro ens. It is not warm face value at the end of the run by any means and cold pattern is probably continuing for the time being with the pacific still favorable, but it is the hint of a +AO regime taking advance maybe (once that Pac breaks down, you know what happens). And yes, that could be a cutter pattern with +NAO and NE Pac ridge...but anyway, its gonna be a nice early cold pattern so lets enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The 2002 comparison continues with the change to cold maybe a week earlier in October in2002. The pattern relaxed and many were worried the previous winter was going to come back but the relaxation period was short and the pattern got established. We were in fairly deep winter by thanksgiving and off to the races thereafter. In 2002 we got locked into good cold for about 3 weeks in 2nd half of October and early November...I'm not sure that happens this time that long...but we'll see. In 2002, we torched in mid-November before the cold returned prior to Thanksgiving and then pretty much stayed for the winter with a couple brief torches in middle December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Not warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Not warm Looks like AWT. Coldest anomalies west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 In 2002 we got locked into good cold for about 3 weeks in 2nd half of October and early November...I'm not sure that happens this time that long...but we'll see. In 2002, we torched in mid-November before the cold returned prior to Thanksgiving and then pretty much stayed for the winter with a couple brief torches in middle December. Will, was 76 a warm first half of Oct then freefall in Nov, Dec if I remember correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 What Scott is talking about is that lower heights are really consolidating around eastern canada/greenland/north pole. This is on both the GEFS and the Euro ens. It is not warm face value at the end of the run by any means and cold pattern is probably continuing for the time being with the pacific still favorable, but it is the hint of a +AO regime taking advance maybe (once that Pac breaks down, you know what happens). And yes, that could be a cutter pattern with +NAO and NE Pac ridge...but anyway, its gonna be a nice early cold pattern so lets enjoy. I think in the heads of some, a pattern relaxation = torch. I'm not sure where all the passive aggressive posts of random tweet pics fit in. In any case, it should get more active and possibly white for some? Would think one of these storms gets someone in NNE or NY State at the very least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Looks like AWT. Coldest anomalies west. SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 SE Sorry, coldest air I meant. Our less - anomalies probably owed to storm track. Expect a lot of "whees" from up and down..although overall avg should be down I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Sorry, coldest air I meant. Our less - anomalies probably owed to storm track. Expect a lot of "whees" from up and down..although overall avg should be down I think. Yea 40s windy and cold are our lot, should be fun in the mtns though and thats a good thing. Its always good to lay down some carpet in Canada early too. Shaping up nicely. I am content to wait until Turkey day and after. I have to say this is a very encouraging month of evolution seasonal wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Yea 40s windy and cold are our lot, should be fun in the mtns though and thats a good thing. Its always good to lay down some carpet in Canada early too. Shaping up nicely. I am content to wait until Turkey day and after. I have to say this is a very encouraging month of evolution seasonal wise. Yeah it will definitely be a good start to Canada. Personally, I'm just not sure how November shakes out because I could see a warming trend for a time. However, there aren't really much in the way of forcing mechanisms to force a pattern one way or another other than the underlying base state. That's why I kind of think the atmosphere will try to go back to more of a low heights near AK deal, but I'm not confident on that. MJO looks to be fairly weak or at least not really in the warm wx stages for us. Some of Paul Roundy's experimental products do show heights lowering near AK, but also an Aleutian ridge and -NAO. If that happens....all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 NAM mos with a 76F at BDL tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 NAM mos with a 76F at BDL tomorrow. Looks like a great day to roll around with windows down and arms out the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Looks like a great day to roll around with windows down and arms out the windows.Who cares in Oct?enjoy burning oil next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 NAM mos with a 76F at BDL tomorrow. TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Will, was 76 a warm first half of Oct then freefall in Nov, Dec if I remember correct? More like the first 8-10 days of Oct 1976 were a furnace and then the bottom dropped out. Nov 1976 never recovered either, which is why that year was weird. We just basically stayed in the freezer for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 ENSO is frustrating. Just when you think warm anomalies will pop, another cold pocket develops just under the surface. The -PDO will not give up. Cannot rage against the machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 ENSO is frustrating. Just when you think warm anomalies will pop, another cold pocket develops just under the surface. The -PDO will not give up. Cannot rage against the machine. Neutral ENSO has been on the wall for a couple months now. Once we couldn't get it going in July/August, it was over for any meaningful type ENSO. Its still possible we get something weak later in the winter but by then, its really only influencing spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Neutral ENSO has been on the wall for a couple months now. Once we couldn't get it going in July/August, it was over for any meaningful type ENSO. Its still possible we get something weak later in the winter but by then, its really only influencing spring. Look at those SST anomaly products on the CPC page. All those nice warm anomalies develop and then poof...lol. Can't say it's a surprise like you said, well forecasted overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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