CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 70ish on Friday? Bitter blast continues! Good day to roll the sleaves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 decent cold shot there on the euro next week. would more than likely bring some snow to the lakes / NNE / Berks etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 decent cold shot there on the euro next week. would more than likely bring some snow to the lakes / NNE / Berks etc.only warmth Ryan made it sound like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 decent cold shot there on the euro next week. would more than likely bring some snow to the lakes / NNE / Berks etc. Yeah pretty impressive by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 only warmth Ryan made it sound like Was talking about Friday... but since you've asked... warmer than normal through Tuesday then we get cold Wednesday and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 decent cold shot there on the euro next week. would more than likely bring some snow to the lakes / NNE / Berks etc. Euro went the cutter route preceding the cold shot, which is what is favored IMHO given the pattern. It does help reinforce the cold air though behind it. Those are -10 to -12C 850mb temp anomalies at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 Euro went the cutter route preceding the cold shot, which is what is favored IMHO given the pattern. It does help reinforce the cold air though behind it. Those are -10 to -12C 850mb temp anomalies at the peak. Even last night's euro ensembles were bringing some -10c 850mb temp anomalies for the midwest/OH valley by D10 - so there's a pretty good signal of big chill to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Even last night's euro ensembles were bringing some -10c 850mb temp anomalies for the midwest/OH valley by D10 - so there's a pretty good signal of big chill to our west. Can we trust the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Can we trust the Euro? The Euro Ensm, sure. I see no reason to sway far from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Good day to roll the sleaves up. Today's +15 on the overnight low and +8 on the high make it a good day to roll em up. Quite the torch this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 Looks like above normal wx continues for the next 7 days here in SNE. Weekend cold push looks muted down this way so I'm keeping things above normal through Tuesday. Euro now forces a cutter west on Tuesday which is what many of us thought would happen. While the op Euro really brings the freezer east - the 00z ensembles held off on the cold and kept it anchored well west. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Today's +15 on the overnight low and +8 on the high make it a good day to roll em up. Quite the torch this month. Wow. Pretty cool here, looks like TAN will end up being at or close to the High & Low for MA today. Currently 71F off a low of 37F. Outside of winter weather, it does not get any better than this for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 May just be a cool snap with some real bona fide heavier freeze/frost nights. The kind where the remaining leaves rain down in the still, cold thick dawn air. By the way ... I was just looking at the - so far - October numbers and all major climo sites across SNE are running well above normal for October. Lots of positive days with just a couple off-sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Looks like above normal wx continues for the next 7 days here in SNE. Weekend cold push looks muted down this way so I'm keeping things above normal through Tuesday. Euro now forces a cutter west on Tuesday which is what many of us thought would happen. While the op Euro really brings the freezer east - the 00z ensembles held off on the cold and kept it anchored well west. We'll see what happens. the BC 12 gfs ens were actually pretty cold (in some areas -10C to -12C 850 anomalies) across most of the eastern 2/3 from about 10/24 thru the end of the run...but i wonder if it's more of a transient/glancing shot here on the eastern seaboard with the heart of the chill centered over the lakes and OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 the BC 12 gfs ens were actually pretty cold (in some areas -10C to -12C 850 anomalies) across most of the eastern 2/3 from about 10/24 thru the end of the run...but i wonder if it's more of a transient/glancing shot here on the eastern seaboard with the heart of the chill centered over the lakes and OV Yeah at least that's probably the best bet now but we're pretty close to closing the month with a real solid shot of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 May just be a cool snap with some real bona fide heavier freeze/frost nights. The kind where the remaining leaves rain down in the still, cold thick dawn air. By the way ... I was just looking at the - so far - October numbers and all major climo sites across SNE are running well above normal for October. Lots of positive days with just a couple off-sets. It looks like the speculation of warmth dominating October through about 10/20 and then a flip to cold is going to end up pretty close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Wow. Pretty cool here, looks like TAN will end up being at or close to the High & Low for MA today. Currently 71F off a low of 37F. Outside of winter weather, it does not get any better than this for me. Our min was 49F here last night, lol. Averages are low to mid 30s. We get absolutely hammered by mild nights this time of year with averages dropping like a rock. It's pretty much above normal at this point if I'm not getting a frost on a nightly basis, lol. We are at +4.8F with only one below normal day all month at MVL. However, that's as low as it is because we can radiate and some of those big 40F diurnal days were at least getting near freezing and near normal at night. BTV is sitting +6.6 on the month out in the Champlain Valley where they don't radiate nearly as well. But that's impressive to be almost +7 halfway through a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 It looks like the speculation of warmth dominating October through about 10/20 and then a flip to cold is going to end up pretty close to correct. Exactly. And it will be interesting to how well the last 10 days compensates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 The heart of the cold will definitely be west, but I think one of these shots over the next two weeks will probably be a potent one. I still think we yo-yo starting this week and through the next couple of weeks...but not sure how persistent the cold is. I think it averages below during that time, but I don't see a prolonged period of very cold double digit anomalies, at least heading towards Halloween. If we end up getting more SWFE that have secondary lows going over SE MA instead of lows moving west, then it becomes a different ball game. This is probably going to be one of those times where ensembles will have more of a smoothed out look with a lot of disagreement to storm track. In other words, it won't be fair weather with 546 thicknesses all the time with small variation. The devil is in the details and the op runs kind of telling the story I think with the variation. The ensembles are sort of the average if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 If you guys find and model center bugs/errors pass them along to me. I know there's already some with the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 The heart of the cold will definitely be west, but I think one of these shots over the next two weeks will probably be a potent one. I still think we yo-yo starting this week and through the next couple of weeks...but not sure how persistent the cold is. I think it averages below during that time, but I don't see a prolonged period of very cold double digit anomalies, at least heading towards Halloween. If we end up getting more SWFE that have secondary lows going over SE MA instead of lows moving west, then it becomes a different ball game. This is probably going to be one of those times where ensembles will have more of a smoothed out look with a lot of disagreement to storm track. In other words, it won't be fair weather with 546 thicknesses all the time with small variation. The devil is in the details and the op runs kind of telling the story I think with the variation. The ensembles are sort of the average if you will. This sounds about what everyone has been thinking... pretty good consensus among the regulars here. It is certainly a huge flip from what we have been seeing, but the details of how the days turn out will decide just how far from average it turns out to be. The numbers can be sneaky this time of year when averages usually lean more towards crisp nights and nice days...a SW flow and cloudy night can actually turn out above normal even with slightly below normal H85s. But hopefully those would be off-set by below normal days. A lot will come down to timing and FROPA's prior to midnight vs. after midnight and all that jazz from a daily departure point of view. Now we just sit here and twiddle our fingers for like a week. Seems like we've got a good grasp on what's about to happen, the part to watch will be that mid-week system coming out of the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Is this done trending colder would be my question. 12 hr changes have been very impressive. Obviously not winter but a cold snap reminder of the upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Now we just sit here and twiddle our fingers for like a week. Seems like we've got a good grasp on what's about to happen, the part to watch will be that mid-week system coming out of the OV. I was hoping first system can get more of a swfe look to it as we draw closer, then if the mean trough allignment is further east get a second to go under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Wow, 59/54 close to 10pm. Overcast. Warm night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Is this done trending colder would be my question. 12 hr changes have been very impressive. Obviously not winter but a cold snap reminder of the upcoming season. Yup, a nice cold blast will be refreshing regardless if we go above normal after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GEFS kind of mutes the first cool shot by the time it moves east, but the second one after midweek has nice coverage in anomalies. Looks like a pretty standard early season cold shot judging from these types of SAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Some signs the pattern will relax as we head into early November, but obviously this -EPO won't last forever anyways. Until then, should be a nice taste of November weather for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Some signs the pattern will relax as we head into early November, but obviously this -EPO won't last forever anyways. Until then, should be a nice taste of November weather for a time. Wake me up when it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Wake me up when it begins. I'm even throwing in a brief cutter warm-up or two. Should be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Euro Ens continue below normal days 11-15 and beyond. Gibbs sent me pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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