Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 below normal cold shot across the bow. As expected the models are trending deeper and further east with the cold shot. Step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 It's just as easily be sunny and 60F the same day. Nothing like hyping a day 8 snow storm on Oct 15th. As has been said here by others, I think a trend colder is in the cards next week and that the NNE area may see some wintry precip. so you are looking for uniformity in posting? Why is it wrong for some to express their own opinion. There was absolutely nothing wrong in his post. No statement of fact at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I don't think I hyped anything. I didn't even say who or where it would snow. All I said is potentially snowy and it gets twisted into me hyping a snowstorm for everyone. All it is now is a potential somewhere in NE. Some of you guys really need to back off. I mean in the old days this would be fun to discuss . Now tbh it sucks. I'm afraid to even post any conjecture or opinion for fear of suspension or getting attacked. Hopefully it's an early shot of winter for many of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 below normal cold shot across the bow. As expected the models are trending deeper and further east with the cold shot. Step 1 Ginx, what would stop the models from going back warmer? You seem to be expecting this to keep developing until we are in full winter. Why can't this go back the other way a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 so you are looking for uniformity in posting? Why is it wrong for some to express their own opinion. There was absolutely nothing wrong in his post. No statement of fact at all. The 1st sentence is pure weenie hype. It's 8-9 days out. If this was said at day 3, I would not have an issue. Pretty soon it's time to stop denying and start figuring out just how cold, potentially how snowy, and how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Columbus Condo Collapser on the GFS. Lets make it a sox stadium snowmaggeddon and then enjoy a above ave met winter snowfall season to put early snow fears to bed like we did the curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 The GFS would support an October snow event with that longwave pattern...but given the timeframe, all we can really say right now is that we will be pretty cold I think sometime in the October 24-31 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Ginx, what would stop the models from going back warmer? You seem to be expecting this to keep developing until we are in full winter. Why can't this go back the other way a bit?first I never ever posted that full winter was incoming. The model's have a terrible time resolving TC recurves and influences on down stream troughs. You yourself started out earlier this week thinking normal cold now today I see you are going below. Just something I have observed for the last two decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 A fine day today all around. Winter's on the way but understand it's 10/15 and for most of us outside of the mountains it won't be consistenty for another 6-8 weeks minimum. Mid December to mid March bellyring to bellyring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 10/24 sure is getting a lot of attention from long range guidance recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 first I never ever posted that full winter was incoming. The model's have a terrible time resolving TC recurves and influences on down stream troughs. You yourself started out earlier this week thinking normal cold now today I see you are going below. Just something I have observed for the last two decades. Fair enough... I am thinking below normal in the 24-27 time frame. Basically drop to near normal Sun-Thur and then below from then through that following weekend. I guess my skepticism for cold/snow keeps causing me to look at the negatives vs the positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 LOL then the GFS ends in a torch after mid winter comes. Kind of a purer example of an Indian Summer there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 A fine day today all around. Winter's on the way but understand it's 10/15 and for most of us outside of the mountains it won't be consistenty for another 6-8 weeks minimum. Mid December to mid March bellyring to bellyring? one can only hope. Its a fine day for sure, foliage touring today, beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Kind of a purer example of an Indian Summer there - let's try and be a little more PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 Talk about dropping the cold hammer D7-D10 in the midwest. Wow. Not sure how much it moderates coming east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Talk about dropping the cold hammer D7-D10 in the midwest. Wow. Not sure how much it moderates coming east though. The core of the cold will def be to our west I think, but it does look more and more likely that we could see at least a brief period of double digit negative departures amongst a longer period of generally below average starting sometime in the D7-8 range. I think a lot will depend on what that system does coming out of the OH Valley...whether its more of a St. Lawrence cutter or if it tracks south/over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 let's try and be a little more PC.Well this is one area I have lots of expertise. Indian summer comes from a term used to describe British Ships in the Indian Ocean. They had a line on their boats for loading lines during summer type weather, hence when observers saw the boats loaded to the India line they knew the captains were expecting Indian summer type voyage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Haha winter comes and goes in the entire run. Winter ends on Nov 1st It did in 11-12. After 11/1 it was an endless blowtorch except for one week in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 later in the DJF period friday's little wave would probably be a nice over-performer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 10/24 sure is getting a lot of attention from long range guidance recently. Agree with this point. Operational guidance all have a storm system near SNE. While the Ensemble guidance are bit north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 despite the below normal heights on the euro ens mean the temps don't get all that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I think a lot will depend on what that system does coming out of the OH Valley...whether its more of a St. Lawrence cutter or if it tracks south/over us. This. This is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 It did in 11-12. After 11/1 it was an endless blowtorch except for one week in JanuaryPTSD from that year clouds many rationale judgement toward wishing away oct snows.Im currently liking the initial indicators for a LP to traverse our area w a south enough track for some in new england to cash in. Last decade or so provided me enough storms that occured several standard deviations from normal climo not to take a model event off the table because the calendar says late October. Not saying anything is 50/50 or likely but we may at least be getting a legit pair of dice to roll, esp for elevated interior early, obviously this is still in its infancy but that recurving beast in the pacific is shaking the pattern up and we got potential. I would think since ensembles sort of smooth out more anomalous events they would be more nw at this point, but i would sort of expect them nw of op in this sort of anomalous set up at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 despite the below normal heights on the euro ens mean the temps don't get all that cold who cares this early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 who cares this early in the seasonNew England ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 who cares this early in the season My guess is u are trying to come off as having non interest in the upcoming pattern but in reality it is taking every fiber of ur being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 My guess is u are trying to come off as having non interest in the upcoming pattern but in reality it is taking every fiber of ur being Sure I do, but folks are getting obsessed about it getting cold and having winter come early...in 95% of years no one is seeing snow in SNE this early.....relax, let the pieces fall in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 despite the below normal heights on the euro ens mean the temps don't get all that cold It's probably because of the lack of NA Snowcover. These cool shots will moderate greatly if there isn't a healthy snowpack in Canada. The upcoming forecasted pattern looks to be a good pattern to build snowcover on our side of the Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 lol...it's 10/15. most places outside of the distant interior should be "content" with a day around 50F and a gusty NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 70ish on Friday? Bitter blast continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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