CT Rain Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Seems like the pattern over NOAM will change pretty drastically in about a week's time. The question is will the cold spill east or remain over the GLakes and plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 My guess cold is over the Plains and Lakes with ocnl spillage into the northeast. In fact it will spill in, but we will be in a yo-yo pattern I feel. I think November may start out chilly and then we perhaps warm up after forst or second week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I'd watch out tomorrow from about ORH west of these low clouds getting trapped under the inversion and it ends up cloudier and cooler than these mid 60's and sun prancing forecast we're seeing. Low clouds this time of year love to hang tight. Coast might be the best tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I'd watch out tomorrow from about ORH west of these low clouds getting trapped under the inversion and it ends up cloudier and cooler than these mid 60's and sun prancing forecast we're seeing. Low clouds this time of year love to hang tight. Coast might be the best tomorrow I hope so. Sun FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 My guess cold is over the Plains and Lakes with ocnl spillage into the northeast. In fact it will spill in, but we will be in a yo-yo pattern I feel. I think November may start out chilly and then we perhaps warm up after forst or second week? Lovely...that's what I'd like to avoid. Getting those teaser air masses in here late-October to early November only to warm back up so its 55F on Thanksgiving haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Lovely...that's what I'd like to avoid. Getting those teaser air masses in here late-October to early November only to warm back up so its 55F on Thanksgiving haha. Who knows. We always have a warm period in November at some point, Right? I'm just not sold on this patern holding for the moment. Maybe it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 What I meant from before was that the GEFS breaks the EPO ridging fast. Do the EC ens do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I'd watch out tomorrow from about ORH west of these low clouds getting trapped under the inversion and it ends up cloudier and cooler than these mid 60's and sun prancing forecast we're seeing. Low clouds this time of year love to hang tight. Coast might be the best tomorrow Why would it be ORH west? I'd think ORH east, no? Anyway, yesterday and today turned out not too far from those NAM 2-m temps from the other day...ECM will be hard to trust as this summer and fall it seems to have lost a little of its magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Why would it be ORH west? I'd think ORH east, no? Anyway, yesterday and today turned out not too far from those NAM 2-m temps from the other day...ECM will be hard to trust as this summer and fall it seems to have lost a little of its magic. Because drier air is advecting in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Who knows. We always have a warm period in November at some point, Right? I'm just not sold on this patern holding for the moment. Maybe it will. Yep, we almost always do and if not in Nov, then early Dec like last year. Very hard for cold to set in late Oct or early Nov and just hold that way deep into winter. I know the old-timers will hang their hats on a few of the great winters that did so, but hopefully we don't jump In too early only to be kicked out of the party down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Because drier air is advecting in from the east. avn_950_rh_27.gif Yeah and this time of year with low sun angle and inversion those clouds love to get trapped from ORH hills west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Because drier air is advecting in from the east. avn_950_rh_27.gif Ahh nice, was thinking marine layer climo. But yeah inversions are tough to pop this time of year...but I bet it can clear up a bit everywhere tomorrow afternoon. At least partly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Winds blowing in good at Fenway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 I'd watch out tomorrow from about ORH west of these low clouds getting trapped under the inversion and it ends up cloudier and cooler than these mid 60's and sun prancing forecast we're seeing. Low clouds this time of year love to hang tight. Coast might be the best tomorrow I could see some morning clouds but I think it will clear out quickly - there's plenty of dry air advecting in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 I could see some morning clouds but I think it will clear out quickly - there's plenty of dry air advecting in from the east.zzzzzzzzz continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 zzzzzzzzz continues Yeah it really is brutal. I mean there's not even anything to look forward to through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Yeah it really is brutal. I mean there's not even anything to look forward to through the end of the month. I'll look forward to my cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Yeah it really is brutal. I mean there's not even anything to look forward to through the end of the month. Maybe a screaming sou easter with all the cutters you're touting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 Maybe a screaming sou easter with all the cutters you're touting Screaming Sou'Easters - disappointing weather weenies every time since November 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Screaming Sou'Easters - disappointing weather weenies every time since November 1950. Huh? I can think of many good ones in the mid 90's..With gusts 65-70 mph. There are at least 3 I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Do the euro ensembles still keep the EPO ridging in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Do the euro ensembles still keep the EPO ridging in place? Yes along with the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Yes along with the SE ridge.So basically its like a gradient pattern with a storm track through the lakes. Not complaining if that's the pattern that develops through the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 So basically its like a gradient pattern with a storm track through the lakes. Not complaining if that's the pattern that develops through the winter Yeah more or less. I surely would not bet the farm on the storm track yet, but definitely gradient-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Yeah more or less. I surely would not bet the farm on the storm track yet, but definitely gradient-like.So do the EC ENS look more like GGEM ensembles in the 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 So do the EC ENS look more like GGEM ensembles in the 11-15? Well a little I guess. Not as robust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 So basically its like a gradient pattern with a storm track through the lakes. Not complaining if that's the pattern that develops through the winter Yeah you would clean up in that sort of pattern in the winter...what is good for you is usually a toaster bath for most of this forum, or maybe SWFE with redeveloping secondary near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 As boring as it is here the rest of the globe is crazy, snow in Europe next week and of course this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 As boring as it is here the rest of the globe is crazy, snow in Europe next week and of course this. That's an awesome image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Do the euro ensembles still keep the EPO ridging in place? You asked me that same question yesterday.That kind of stuff doesn't flip overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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