hm8 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Over on the tiebreaker #6 is a bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Worst tiebreaker ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 With the 7.7" today at DTW that puts us at 9.0" on the month, which is .8" away from the over for tiebreaker 1. I think I can definitively say that the over is a winner there. Stupid me going under for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Worst tiebreaker ever. sup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CMH 'unders' in a bit of trouble. We had the highest 'under' percentage and here we sit at 60% only half way thru Dec. I would bet IND isn't that far off either. Ironic if the city with the most 'unders' hits their seasonal snowfall amount first. p.s. full disclosure I would have put CMH under as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CMH 'unders' in a bit of trouble. We had the highest 'under' percentage and here we sit at 60% only half way thru Dec. I would bet IND isn't that far off either. Ironic if the city with the most 'unders' hits their seasonal snowfall amount first. p.s. full disclosure I would have put CMH under as well. IND is at 7.9" for the season, which puts them at 31% of normal NDJFM snowfall. Last storm was kind of a bust for them. The Kentucky sites are doing well like CMH. Louisville (SDF) is at 5.8", or 47% of normal snowfall. Paducah (PAH) is at 5.2", or 58% of normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 IND is at 7.9" for the season, which puts them at 31% of normal NDJFM snowfall. Last storm was kind of a bust for them. The Kentucky sites are doing well like CMH. Louisville (SDF) is at 5.8", or 47% of normal snowfall. Paducah (PAH) is at 5.2", or 58% of normal snowfall. Surprised about IND, but not so much about the southern flanks. Wasn't aware that yesterdays was a bust for IND, although that warm air really bullied it's way north. If I was to see CMH's numbers without knowledge of the season so far, I would assume it was one biggie that skewed the number...ie 1950. Amazingly it's been consistent small to mod events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Surprised about IND, but not so much about the southern flanks. Wasn't aware that yesterdays was a bust for IND, although that warm air really bullied it's way north. If I was to see CMH's numbers without knowledge of the season so far, I would assume it was one biggie that skewed the number...ie 1950. Amazingly it's been consistent small to mod events. Just 2.6" at IND with the last storm. They even flipped to rain for a time. And they were on the northern fringes of the Dec 5-6 storm, though still got 4.5" from that one. Yeah, you guys in OH have done really well so far. Like you said, and not from just one big event. Very cool for early in the season. Glad to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the 7.7" today at DTW that puts us at 9.0" on the month, which is .8" away from the over for tiebreaker 1. I think I can definitively say that the over is a winner there. Stupid me going under for that one. Make that 9.7" on the month as of 4PM today, it is safe to say the Over is a bingo for tiebreaker 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Liking my chances with all this cold air around ... if it does anything, it has to be snow. (my chances = all stations above) One thing about an over forecast, suspense ends when you make it across the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Had a look at the contest sites and this is what I found (snowfalls from Nov 1 to last known daily total) with a commentary about likely outcomes: (colour codes will probably be fairly obvious) Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 34.5" so far ... not quite 50% of normal ... one of the less likely "overs"Chicago IL (ORD): 35.2" 35.1" so far ... can't miss being OVERCleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 33.1" so far ... odds are maybe about 50-50 given the 16-day guidanceColumbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 22.3" so far ... very likely to finish OVERDetroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 39.2" so far ... can't miss being OVERDubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 24.1" so far ... odds seem pretty close to 50-50Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 28.4" so far ... heading OVERGreen Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 35.1" so far ... betting this will be OVER before end of JANIndianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 27.1" so far ... OVER alreadyLa Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 21.1" so far ... struggling and could stay UNDERLouisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 6.3" so far ... will require maybe one or two events to get OVERMarquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 78.4" so far ... never say never for this site, but 43% to date? tough callMilwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 31.2" so far ... seems to be on track to edge OVER but not a done dealMuskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 63.4" so far ... probably heading OVER looking at the model outputPaducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... Not much to ask, is it? But a subtropical location near sea level is a challengeSt. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 20.5" so far ... OVER alreadySpringfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 22.5" so far ... OVER alreadyToronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" I will edit this if somebody knows the exact number, 15" ??? chances meh I think the current odds considering the model output would say all but 3-4 will likely finish OVER and just about all of them could, although Toronto will need an attitude adjustment and Alpena is on life support at the wrong end of the lake effect climo signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Had a look at the contest sites and this is what I found (snowfalls from Nov 1 to last known daily total) with a commentary about likely outcomes: (colour codes will probably be fairly obvious) Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 34.5" so far ... not quite 50% of normal ... one of the less likely "overs" Chicago IL (ORD): 35.2" 35.1" so far ... can't miss being OVER Cleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 33.1" so far ... odds are maybe about 50-50 given the 16-day guidance Columbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 22.3" so far ... very likely to finish OVER Detroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 39.2" so far ... can't miss being OVER Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 24.1" so far ... odds seem pretty close to 50-50 Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 28.4" so far ... heading OVER Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 35.1" so far ... betting this will be OVER before end of JAN Indianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 27.1" so far ... OVER already La Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 21.1" so far ... struggling and could stay UNDER Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 6.3" so far ... will require maybe one or two events to get OVER Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 78.4" so far ... never say never for this site, but 43% to date? tough call Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 31.2" so far ... seems to be on track to edge OVER but not a done deal Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 63.4" so far ... probably heading OVER looking at the model output Paducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... Not much to ask, is it? But a subtropical location near sea level St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 20.5" so far ... OVER already Springfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 22.5" so far ... OVER already Toronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" I will edit this if somebody knows the exact number, 15" ??? chances meh I think the current odds considering the model output would say all but 3-4 will likely finish OVER and just about all of them could, although Toronto will need an attitude adjustment and Alpena is on life support at the wrong end of the lake effect climo signal. Excellent first half of winter for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Roger, thanks for the update. I'm too lazy/busy (fill in the blank) to check my results. This is shaping up to be yet another banner winter for most in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Had a look at the contest sites and this is what I found (snowfalls from Nov 1 to last known daily total) with a commentary about likely outcomes: (colour codes will probably be fairly obvious) Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 34.5" so far ... not quite 50% of normal ... one of the less likely "overs" Chicago IL (ORD): 35.2" 35.1" so far ... can't miss being OVER Cleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 33.1" so far ... odds are maybe about 50-50 given the 16-day guidance Columbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 22.3" so far ... very likely to finish OVER Detroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 39.2" so far ... can't miss being OVER Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 24.1" so far ... odds seem pretty close to 50-50 Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 28.4" so far ... heading OVER Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 35.1" so far ... betting this will be OVER before end of JAN Indianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 27.1" so far ... OVER already La Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 21.1" so far ... struggling and could stay UNDER Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 6.3" so far ... will require maybe one or two events to get OVER Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 78.4" so far ... never say never for this site, but 43% to date? tough call Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 31.2" so far ... seems to be on track to edge OVER but not a done deal Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 63.4" so far ... probably heading OVER looking at the model output Paducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... Not much to ask, is it? But a subtropical location near sea level St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 20.5" so far ... OVER already Springfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 22.5" so far ... OVER already Toronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" I will edit this if somebody knows the exact number, 15" ??? chances meh I think the current odds considering the model output would say all but 3-4 will likely finish OVER and just about all of them could, although Toronto will need an attitude adjustment and Alpena is on life support at the wrong end of the lake effect climo signal. YYZ = 19.8". Chances are meh. The rest of January is a writeoff but February has tended to be our snowiest month the last several years. 2'+ in February 2013. There's a chance but less than 50/50 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 YYZ = 19.8". Chances are meh. The rest of January is a writeoff but February has tended to be our snowiest month the last several years. 2'+ in February 2013. There's a chance but less than 50/50 for sure. We"ll probably end the month off with around 10" at YYZ and plus the 34.1cm from Nov/Dec. We've missed out on many storms this season but that seems to be a reoccurring theme in the GTA. -_-. Hopefully February and March provide. Would be nice to get a April Blizzard as its been a while since we've seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We"ll probably end the month off with around 10" at YYZ and plus the 34.1cm from Nov/Dec. We've missed out on many storms this season but that seems to be a reoccurring theme in the GTA. -_-. Hopefully February and March provide. Would be nice to get a April Blizzard as its been a while since we've seen that. No thank you! Once we change the clocks again I'm ready for summer. The seasons according to me: November to February: PLEASE SNOW March to June: PLEASE BE WARM July and August: PLEASE BE STORMY September and October: PLEASE BE SUNNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man, I blow at these prediction games. I picked under for ORD and DTW. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Update through Jan 27 ... Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 41.5" so far ... not quite 55% of normal ... one of the less likely "overs"Chicago IL (ORD): 48.2" so far ... OVER alreadyCleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 44.6" so far ... odds are still about 50-50 given the 16-day guidanceColumbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 35.0" so far ... OVER alreadyDetroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 55.0" so far ... OVER already Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 35.3" so far ... looks to be heading OVER Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 40.5" so far ... OVER already Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 42.0" so far ... now betting this will be OVER before Feb 7thIndianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 35.6" so far ... OVER alreadyLa Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 27.7" so far ... still struggling and could stay UNDER, 50-50 at this point?Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 14.3" so far ... OVER already Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 101.3" so far ... still touch and go running a bit behind Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 40.6" so far ... seems very likely now to reach OVER Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 85.0" so far ... probably heading OVER Paducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... nothing new since last update St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 21.4" so far ... OVER alreadySpringfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 24.8" so far ... OVER alreadyToronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" The current number is 25.9" and chances remain uncertain, hopeful. Five new "OVERS" confirmed for a total of 8. Several more about to reach "OVER" status. Alpena, La Crosse, Paducah and Cleveland are the remaining credible UNDER candidates, any one of them could eventually end up OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Update through Jan 27 ... Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 41.5" so far ... not quite 55% of normal ... one of the less likely "overs" Chicago IL (ORD): 48.2" so far ... OVER already Cleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 44.6" so far ... odds are still about 50-50 given the 16-day guidance Columbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 35.0" so far ... OVER already Detroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 55.0" so far ... OVER already Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 35.3" so far ... looks to be heading OVER Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 40.5" so far ... OVER already Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 42.0" so far ... now betting this will be OVER before Feb 7th Indianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 35.6" so far ... OVER already La Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 27.7" so far ... still struggling and could stay UNDER, 50-50 at this point? Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 14.3" so far ... OVER already Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 101.3" so far ... still touch and go running a bit behind Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 40.6" so far ... seems very likely now to reach OVER Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 85.0" so far ... probably heading OVER Paducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... nothing new since last update St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 21.4" so far ... OVER already Springfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 24.8" so far ... OVER already Toronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" The current number is about 24" and chances remain uncertain, hopeful. Five new "OVERS" confirmed for a total of 8. Several more about to reach "OVER" status. Alpena, La Crosse, Paducah and Cleveland are the remaining credible UNDER candidates, any one of them could eventually end up OVER. YYZ = 25.9" with nipher controversy as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Maybe they should tilt the Nipher towards the west then. Anyway, if it's always a problem, it's built into the normals. One big storm and YYZ could be knocking on the door too. Should have added them to the list of maybes, but I see the potential for reaching OVER status by mid-February on the current model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Update through Feb 1st ... Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" 45.1" so far ... now up to 60% of normal ... will be a struggle to get OVERChicago IL (ORD): 35.2" 52.6" so far ... OVER alreadyCleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" 46.0" so far ... by no means a done deal for OVERColumbus OH (CMH): 26.2" 35.1" so far ... OVER alreadyDetroit MI (DTW): 40.9" 59.9" so far ... OVER already Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" 38.4" so far ... next event probably puts it OVER Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" 41.4" so far ... OVER already Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" 44.9" so far ... still betting this will be OVER before Feb 7th or soon afterIndianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" 35.8" so far ... OVER alreadyLa Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" 29.4" so far ... still struggling and could stay UNDER, 50-50 at this point?Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3" 14.3" so far ... OVER already Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" 105.2" so far ... still touch and go running a bit behind Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" 43.3" so far ... just 1.3" away from reaching OVER Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" 98.9" so far ... OVER alreadyPaducah KY (PAH): 9.0" 6.3" so far ... nothing new since last update St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" 21.4" so far ... OVER alreadySpringfield IL (SPI): 20.6" 27.4" so far ... OVER alreadyToronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" The current number is 30.4" and chances looking rather good now. Now at 9 OVER, with at least three likely to join in the next week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I won't update the whole list above, but the following are new "OVERS" Dubuque IA now at 40.1" Milwaukee WI now at 45.7" Paducah KY now at 12.5" (after doubling down on Groundhog Day) -------------- meanwhile Green Bay stuck at 44.9" through yesterday, Toronto made up over half of what's required to reach normal despite Nipher problems. These two are almost certain to reach "OVER" status which would make 14. That leaves Alpena, Marquette, Cleveland and La Crosse in the undecided column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That leaves Alpena, Marquette, Cleveland and La Crosse in the undecided column. Marquette is going to have a hard time with Superior nearly frozen over. That's a lot of system snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That leaves Alpena, Marquette, Cleveland and La Crosse in the undecided column. I'm betting CLE will squeak by sometime in mid March. But it would be kind of neat if we end up 'under' for the contest, but get a big April snow to push us over in the seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GRB has snuck into the OVERS at 48.8" -- 13/18 now OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 CLE, LSE and YYZ all very close now, CLE has steadily built up to almost 62 inches, LSE added 4 yesterday to reach 38 and YYZ must be closing in on their normal of 43 (was at 38 before this 2-5 inch storm began). Will confirm when these three have made "OVER" officially, will make it 16/18 with Alpena (50.6" needing 26.2) and Marquette (117.8" needing 64.4") the long shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 CLE, LSE and YYZ all very close now, CLE has steadily built up to almost 62 inches, LSE added 4 yesterday to reach 38 and YYZ must be closing in on their normal of 43 (was at 38 before this 2-5 inch storm began). Will confirm when these three have made "OVER" officially, will make it 16/18 with Alpena (50.6" needing 26.2) and Marquette (117.8" needing 64.4") the long shots. CLE is now over for the year with 64.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LSE only managed 1.5" snow from the deep low and are stuck at 38.7" (2.7" to go), and thanks to SSC I see that YYZ is at 41.5" which is a mere 1.5" to go. Think these two are 99% likely to reach the OVER status. Alpena and Marquette are plodding along with about 4" added to my last reports, not on any sort of credible pace to reach OVER. So we are at 14/18 waiting a few days to reach 16. After that it may be pretty much a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Alpena has been a disaster for years now, they can't buy an above normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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