earthlight Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro is farther south with the entire ULL and has lost the big area of convective rain over our area..looks more like the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The Euro shows that classic "diamond" convective blob remaining offshore through hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 So far around 0.50" for NYC through 12z Friday. I-78 south 0.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Goes poof hr 18. Has really been struggling recently...something to keep in mind as we move towards winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The Euro keeps sending the heaviest rain well to our southwest. This run is going to have a really sharp SW to NE cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 so the euro caves to the gfs..lord help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 12z RGEM had an extremely sharp cutoff...around 3 inches for Long Beach Island and 0" measurable precipitation in Orange County NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Gfs seemed to have outperformed Euro as it never showed very heavy totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 so the euro caves to the gfs..lord help us wow-never thought I'd see the day,but you could tell it was heading that way today with the radar and other models moving away from the solution after intiially going towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I-80 south is still 1"+ through hr 36, congrats south Jersey this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro is pretty meh overall, slight differences in placement would be a big difference though. It keeps light rain/drizzle around till at least Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 .41" total rain for NYC on the euro through tomorrow afternoon. Based on radar and satellite, even that seems unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I wonder if that convective blob that the Euro has south of Long Island is causing some convective feedback issues. It shows a blob of very heavy rain and essentially completely disolves it in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Clouds are breaking up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 .41" total rain for NYC on the euro through tomorrow afternoon. Based on radar and satellite, even that seems unlikely at this point. ugly--went from 2-4 inches to less than a half inch in one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 wow-never thought I'd see the day,but you could tell it was heading that way today with the radar and other models moving away from the solution after intiially going towards it. lol. Is the event over yet? lol It was clear by this morning those totals where not going to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 ugly--went from 2-4 inches to less than a half inch in one run... Best part is that it had the same solution of 2-4 inches for at least 8-9 straight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Thank god this isnt winter, mass weenie sucide would be in full effect, but my god every model has been pretty horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I don't know what to think, that convection well offshore is really blowing up now, but it looks headed for southern New England or OTS. I think it's probably best to walk away for a few hours and then see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Best part is that it had the same solution of 2-4 inches for at least 8-9 straight runs. Not sure I've ever seen something like that from the Euro-once it locks in, it's usually right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Central PA looks to be getting crushed. All that moisture hitting the apps and dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I can certainly understand your reasoning, however I think we need to let this play out. I think this has just about played out now. The high pressure to the north was so dominant, that almost all of the moisture with the little low was supressed to our south, and only remnants at best will make it to Long Island and NYC in the form of drizzle, if it doesn't fizzle. Light showers are now lined up south of LI and weakening further as they move n-ward. Tomorrow should feature a few breaks of sunshine and an occasional spotty light shower or sprinkle. I think the next shot of meaningful rain around here would be an approaching cold front around the 20th or 21st. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 models pointing to a prolonged rain event especially NYC south and east...discuss here: It was a rainstorm bust. That's okay because it was not a snow forecast. Anyway, lesson learned is that we can not place all our bets on supercomputers and models. Weather forecasting remains very challenging at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Euro def was a huge bust on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I can tell you we are getting crushed in Hershey. Been POURING non stop since 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Today turned out to be a nice and cool day. What a bust of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Today turned out to be a nice and cool day. What a bust of a storm. You're in Brooklyn and I'm in interior NJ so it probably makes a difference here, but I gotta say, it wasn't exactly "cool." It's October so I'm speaking relatively but there was a distinct warm, moist sort of flow... it has been about 61 degrees for the last 12 hours. I am sure the wind and cloud cover helps with that. You know a lot of this weather today reminded me of (wait for it) Sandy. Besides the breezy grayness that was in place well before Sandy's arrival, most of Sandy's weather in our area was progressively higher winds with a sparse radar which, as I've understood it, was partially caused by the subsiding air from the high to the north. I feel stupid evoking Sandy for such a relative non-event, though. I guess as I follow more weather I'll be able to instead say "hey this reminds me of the 10/10/13 No'reaster." Also a No'reaster is my name for future busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 so the euro caves to the gfs..lord help us I think the gfs got some updates in July and August (like better satelite data) from the money from the Sandy bill, with more updates coming in 2014... something to watch this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Not sure I've ever seen something like that from the Euro-once it locks in, it's usually right This isn't first time Euro has shown too high qpf this close to an event. But I think all the models have struggled with this storm. Due to more subsidence and mishandling of the LLJ/shortwaves around the ULL. Also another low has developed well offshore, robbing us first low of some moisture and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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