IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z GGEM hasn't waivered - still crushes most of the area based on the black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 You are are hysterical, how about we wait until the event unfolds. It doesn't have to come together exactly as the models are showing it. Remember models are only a guide not a forecast. I am sure we will get our fair share of rain. However, nobody needs 4,5,6 inches of rain in a 2-3 span. A couple inches would help us out greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 looking at the visible and radar, there's a good area of higher cloud tops/storms out in the atlantic-guessing that's going to pinwheel WNW and get us later.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 While admiditly the radar still looks terrible, you can not ignore the fact that it's improving slightly. Also, most of the modeling yesterday didn't have the steady rain moving in until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Also, the radar has really never looked that great with this storm and yet plenty of DC area posters have reported > 3" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z GGEM valid 12z Friday. If we get less than an inch, just about every model will have busted badly inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If the models bust this bad within 24 hrs then I have little confidence in what they might show this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is plenty wet right through Saturday night. It has the heaviest rain from 00z Friday - 12z Friday. I think the slogan for this storm will be "Delayed but not denied" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If the models bust this bad within 24 hrs then I have little confidence in what they might show this winter. If you look objectively at the American models, they only showed the 2-3.5" rain amounts for two run cycles (not including 06Z & 18Z) and at 12Z today, both NAM and GFS cut down on amounts drastically from prior runs. The splitting of the energy and moisture with one area over Md, se Pa, and southern NJ, and another area moving out toward Cape Cod or even the open ocean waters, is characteristic of the weak and poorly organized low pressure center and the dominant high pressure to the north. The underlying problem for this to get going here is too much blocking. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is plenty wet right through Saturday night. It has the heaviest rain from 00z Friday - 12z Friday. I think the slogan for this storm will be "Delayed but not denied" How about "delayed and only admitted on a limited basis"? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 If you look objectively at the American models, they only showed the 2-3.5" rain amounts for two run cycles (not including 06Z & 18Z) and at 12Z today, both NAM and GFS cut down on amounts drastically from prior runs. The splitting of the energy and moisture with one area over Md, se Pa, and southern NJ, and another area moving out toward Cape Cod or even the open ocean waters, is characteristic of the weak and poorly organized low pressure center and the dominant high pressure to the north. The underlying problem for this to get going here is too much blocking. WX/PT good post and explanation for what might be going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 good post and explanation for what might be going on here. The NAM and the GFS both were advertising that as a possible scenario two days ago but they both lost it yesterday. The NAM was plenty wet, especially over NJ at 12z today. I'm dumbfounded at how you can say the NAM cut back totals at 12z. It simply shifted the axis of heavy rainfall west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Infrared is finally starting to looks a little better with cold cloud tops building off the mid-atlantic coast. As a lover of huge rainstorms, this is very frustrating for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Infrared is finally starting to looks a little better with cold cloud tops building off the mid-atlantic coast. As a lover of huge rainstorms, this is very frustrating for me. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I never thought today was going to be a great day for rain. Tonight and Friday morning always looked more organized. The 4-6" amounts always seemed farfetched to me. 2-3" for a decent portion of the area may still be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 in about 50 minutes, the euro will either crush our dreams or reaffirm that it's the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Cold cloud tops are now building all the way down the line from the Bahamas to the convection off the NJ coast. Maybe just maybe things will start to improve soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Cold cloud tops are now building all the way down the line from the Bahamas to the convection off the NJ coast. Maybe just maybe things will start to improve soon. Eventually, the high pressure will scoot away a bit and the storm itself will slowly drift northward. We'll still get our rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 in about 50 minutes, the euro will either crush our dreams or reaffirm that it's the King It will also help us know who to believe during THIS winter, when these situations are more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 This dry slot is like 1-25-2000 minus the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Pressure is slowly falling over New England and the 1027mb highs to the north are slowly slipping eastward. The 12z GGEM has the low pressure center making it another 250-300 miles northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Cold cloud tops are now building all the way down the line from the Bahamas to the convection off the NJ coast. Maybe just maybe things will start to improve soon. Whatever builds off the NJ coast is probably for central and southern NJ. The stuff further south will likely head up toward Cape Cod or the ocean waters s and e. Up in the NYC area, we will get rain as the upper low drifts n-ward and we are the backside of system as showers rotate around it sometime later on, tonight & a part of Friday. But this should not be a big deal as the system will be shunted to the south and east over that time and moving away. Too much blocking. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Whatever builds off the NJ coast is probably for central and southern NJ. The stuff further south will likely head up toward Cape Cod or the ocean waters s and e. Up in the NYC area, we will get rain as the upper low drifts n-ward and we are the backside of system as showers rotate around it sometime later on, tonight & a part of Friday. But this should not be a big deal as the system will be shunted to the south and east over that time and moving away. Too much blocking. WX/PT I can certainly understand your reasoning, however I think we need to let this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Infrared is finally starting to looks a little better with cold cloud tops building off the mid-atlantic coast. As a lover of huge rainstorms, this is very frustrating for me. 3 or 4" of rain over 3 or 4 days is hardly a huge rainstorm. This was never anticipated to be anything truly major. I see this as being moderate rain at times, light rain at other times, with a gusty NE wind sometimes, more often on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z Euro just initialized, keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The sun is out here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 we already know the nam is wrong. no way will anyone in or around nyc see anything substantial by this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z Euro just initialized, keeping my fingers crossed. The 18z panel looks correct wit the big dry slot and heavy rain well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro keeping most of the rain west and south of NYC over NJ and PA through the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Through hr 12, Euro blowing up the convective blob south of Long Island and pushing it towards the coast Goes poof hr 18. Only some light rain into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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