IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z Rgem doesn't look too impressive for NYC/LI. Yeah, it backed off even more. It literally has less rainfall than the 06Z GFS up to HR48, for NYC/LI. EDIT: The reason why it has less rainfall is because of a massive HP over NE Canada that sinks south and steadily intensifies. What's interesting is that the NAM has a similar features, but it happens 24 hours after the RGEM @HR48 (@HR72 on the 12Z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z GGEM still has this sitting and spinning off the coast in 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Yeah, it backed off even more. It literally has less rainfall than the 06Z GFS up to HR48, for NYC/LI. EDIT: The reason why it has less rainfall is because of a massive HP over NE Canada that sinks south and steadily intensifies. What's interesting is that the NAM has a similar features, but it happens 24 hours after the RGEM @HR48 (@HR72 on the 12Z NAM). The RGEM started backing off with the 00z run last night. It was to robust with the rainfall for the mid-atlantic, so even though from my perspective it was nice model porn, I knew it was overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z GGEM still has this sitting and spinning off the coast in 144hrs If the GFS hops on and the ECMWF stays steady, then I see that we will have serious model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The RGEM started backing off with the 00z run last night. It was to robust with the rainfall for the mid-atlantic, so even though from my perspective it was nice model porn, I knew it was overdone. The RGEM has some rainfall for us, but not enough to wipe out the dryness we had for the past few weeks or so. Even the GFS has some beneficial rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 RGEM and GGEM, which is which? RGEM is the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 GFS has very little rain through this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 RGEM and GGEM, which is which? RGEM is the Canadian? The GGEM is the Medium Range Canadian Model and the RGEM is Regional Canadian Model (Shorter Range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 GFS has very little rain through this evening That actually makes sense given the radar presentation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 GFS has very little rain through this evening Looks like we might lose this rainfall event. At this rate, CNJ/SNJ/SE PA/DE will probably do well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 About a half inch through tomorrow noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 About a half inch through tomorrow noon So the operational NAM has a deluge for the next 12-18 hrs and the GFS has close to nothing...good Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Radar looks like it's feeling in a bit last few frames off jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'm not sure what everyone is looking at, the 12z GFS has rain from now through Saturday morning. It's all light though, totals of under 1". The 12z 4k NAM dumps on us, why is everyone freaking out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 So the operational NAM has a deluge for the next 12-18 hrs and the GFS has close to nothing...good Lord I'm going to wait for the ECMWF to see what will happen next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'm not sure what everyone is looking at, the 12z GFS has rain from now through Saturday morning. It's all light though, totals of under 1". The 12z 4k NAM dumps on us, why is everyone freaking out? Right. The nam has 2", the gfs .5" during the same period. You don't see a discrepancy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Right. The nam has 2", the gfs .5" during the same period. You don't see a discrepancy? And the Euro has 3.25". Just minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 So the operational NAM has a deluge for the next 12-18 hrs and the GFS has close to nothing...good Lord NAM doesn't have much for your area. Only has a total of .78" for BDR and nothing after 2AM. GFS has a total of .60" for BDR through tomorrow. So the 2 aren't much different for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z NAM soundings KEWR - 2.71" KLGA - 1.97" KMMU - 3.03" RUTG - 2.39" KJFK - 1.62" ATLH - 2.17" KSWF - 1.57" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z 4k NAM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z GGEM was very wet for the entire region FWIW. And so was the 00z UKMET, rain still over the region at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z 4k NAM totals Pretty unrealistic. I see 2.5 - 4" of rain verify, but not 5"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 12z Euro is going to look different since the 0z didn't have the dry slot being so extensive from 12-18z with heavier rain across LI than is verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The radar is starting to fill in offshore, especially east of ACY. I think this might bust in a lot of places, but someone is going to get crushed. NAM says NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z GGEM was very wet for the entire region FWIW. And so was the 00z UKMET, rain still over the region at hour 72. Dream on dream on. Radar is filled with holes/slots. There is too much sinking dry air, not enough lift. This is the result of the dominant high pressure to the north. The precipiation is WAY overdone by the models. Not even close. NYC will do well to get to an inch, and I frankly have doubts that they will. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Dream on dream on. Radar is filled with holes/slots. There is too much sinking dry air, not enough lift. This is the result of the dominant high pressure to the north. The precipiation is WAY overdone by the models. Not even close. NYC will do well to get to an inch, and I frankly have doubts that they will. WX/PT What a bust that would be for the models, especially the ECMWF. Hopefully you're wrong. I want my flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 So where is all this rain? Radar looks unimpressive and I think my initial call of about an inch to an inch and a half over the area looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 So where is all this rain? Radar looks unimpressive and I think my initial call of about an inch to an inch and a half over the area looks good right now. Way to Monday morning QB. How about we wait until Saturday moring and then see what are totals are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 What a bust that would be for the models, especially the ECMWF. Hopefully you're wrong. I want my flooding rains. yes, that would be an unusual bust for the Euro, but radar looks unimpressive right now, so guessing it comes in with less come 2pm today with the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro is going to bust big time. The radar looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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