DiehardFF Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 My Holly going with 1.2"-2.25" for my location. Are they hugging the GFS? Hey. What did the 0z/06z RGEM and the 0z EURO have for PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Hey. What did the 0z/06z RGEM and the 0z EURO have for PHL? 06z RGEM had the heaviest rain over southern NJ today and northern NJ on Friday. I don't have access to the totals. Euro had 2-3" for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 06z RGEM had the heaviest rain over southern NJ today and northern NJ on Friday. I don't have access to the totals. Euro had 2-3" for Philly. Thanks, I thought you had picture access. You think Philly will get 2"-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Soundings have 4.28" for NYC on the 0z euro. That's a lot of rain, seems the Euro is wetter now. GFS is crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Thanks, I thought you had picture access. You think Philly will get 2"-3"? there's also a philly board you can try. I don't think most of us up here really care about them one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 The tropical feed must gett going later? Radar looks unimpressive right now, but all the models show quite the QPF dump later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The tropical feed must gett going later? Radar looks unimpressive right now, but all the models show quite the QPF dump later on. Water Vapor Loop shows that the moisture feed is coming from the Carribean http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Most of the models are keying in on small vort maxes within the flow that should enhance the rainfall. The one thing that worries me is the convective element involved. When that happens someone is going to get dumped on with maybe 4-5" of rain and someone 30 miles away may end up with less than an inch. This has bust written all over it for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The tropical feed must gett going later? Radar looks unimpressive right now, but all the models show quite the QPF dump later on. No steady precip until after 12 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 nam is coming in very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It feels the models will play as of last year.. Euro leading ..NAM having no clue until the event is on our door step.. and GFS lost..even while the event is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It feels the models will play as of last year.. Euro leading ..NAM having no clue until the event is on our door step.. and GFS lost..even while the event is occurring. The NAM isn't lost this time. It shows a deluge for us in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 nam is coming in very wet NAM has no rain for NYC, LI and most of NJ tomorrow. It ends the rain tonight. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The NAM isn't lost this time. It shows a deluge for us in the next 12 hours. NAM IS COMPLETELY LOST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM has no rain for NYC, LI and most of NJ tomorrow. It ends the rain tonight. OK. Yeah, I'm a bit skeptical about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM IS COMPLETELY LOST. Different solution ever 6 hours...what a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM has no rain for NYC, LI and most of NJ tomorrow. It ends the rain tonight. OK. yeah 2"+ this afternoon and tonight then nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM has no rain for NYC, LI and most of NJ tomorrow. It ends the rain tonight. OK. Correction. It has the rain completely ending by 2am tonight for NYC, LI and most of NJ. According to the NAM, it's a 10 hour rain event for the coast and then it's over. The model is completely lost. Has the heaviest axis of rain in Pennsylvania where 4"-7" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Wow. The 12Z NAM is lost. It has a convective blob over SE PA/SNJ by 7PM tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Different solution ever 6 hours...what a terrible model. It's garbage. Again, it can be completely lost even as the event is ongoing. Remember the 6 feet of snow it printed out for northern NJ right before the 2/8 storm last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Then the 12Z NAM shows the precip fading away from late morning Friday through Early Saturday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z Euro has rain over a majority of the region from 18z today until 00z Sunday. It's been very consistent for many runs in a row now, I wouldn't put to much weight, if any in the NAM or the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 00z Euro has rain over a majority of the region from 18z today until 00z Sunday. It's been very consistent for many runs in a row now, I wouldn't put to much weight, if any in the NAM or the GFS at this point. Or the new Srefs, which have an almost identical solution to what the NAM just spit out. Rain ends by 2am for the coast and the event is now for Pennsylvania. This is according to the NAM/Srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Or the new Srefs, which have an almost identical solution to what the NAM just spit out. Rain ends by 2am for the coast and the event is now for Pennsylvania. This is according to the NAM/Srefs. Of course, since the SREFS are a counterpart of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 A NAM solution would increase the flood threat as it dumps 2-3" of rain over the more flood prone areas of PA and NJ in a relatively short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Or the new Srefs, which have an almost identical solution to what the NAM just spit out. Rain ends by 2am for the coast and the event is now for Pennsylvania. This is according to the NAM/Srefs. I don't think we can necessarily discount these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 I don't think we can necessarily discount these solutions. It's certainly something to consider, but until the Canadian and Euro show something different, one has to be skeptical especially with the NAM having a different solution each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 It's certainly something to consider, but until the Canadian and Euro show something different, one has to be skeptical especially with the NAM having a different solution each run Yeah its just a mess because one or more models is going to bust big time within 12 hours of an event. Going to be a 'fun' winter for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The 4k NAM has scattered rain over the region through Saturday morning. It has 5"+ over northeast NJ/NYC/NW Nassau and 3-4"+ over almost all other interested parties in this forum. It Jackpots Bergan County with 6"+. The NAM is meh on the winds. Keeps all the 30MPH+ winds offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 12z Rgem doesn't look too impressive for NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Right now all the moderate rains are over eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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