NEXtreme Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Already reports of coastal flooding and road closures in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 15Z SREF mean is still only around 0.5" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 WPC going with 2-3" total and Upton's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z NAM is waking up. JP's Long Island like the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 the euro's been showing the same idea for several runs with its ensemble agreeing. we're also within 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 the euro's been showing the same idea for several runs with its ensemble agreeing. we're also within 72 hours The Euro and it's ensembles.....Truly an alliance that's hard to beat. 2-3 inches of rain sounds realistic given the impressive subtropical moisture feed associated with this storm. I work down in port Newark and the wind is already cranking. Like Bluewave pointed out if will be interesting to see where the coastal front sets up. Some locales may exceed over 3 inches of rain where banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z NAM has a lot of rain now for Friday night, especially for the NJ coastal sections. Looks like we start to dry out overnight Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 There may be more rainfall than previously thought. There's reports of 15"+ rain about 40 miles off the NC Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 There may be more rainfall than previously thought. There's reports of 15"+ rain about 40 miles off the NC Coast. radar estimates? sounds like a difficult task to provide reports from that location impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 There may be more rainfall than previously thought. There's reports of 15"+ rain about 40 miles off the NC Coast. That's radar estimated and from convection that has already weakened. Most locals in eastern NC are in the 2-3"+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 That's radar estimated and from convection that has already weakened. Most locals in eastern NC are in the 2-3"+ range. Still pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z RGEM looks pretty impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z RGEM looks pretty impressive!did it come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Here is the link. Low over Ocean City MD by 48 hrs http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Here is the link. Low over Ocean City MD by 48 hrs http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Wow crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The RGEM has well over 5 inches of rain over parts of New Jersey through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 For the record, the high resolution NAM is also showing a 5" max near Sandy hook in a thin band of heavy rain on the new 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The RGEM has well over 5 inches of rain over parts of New Jersey through 48 hours. rgemtotals.png The Rgem is accurate in this range as well. Definitely a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The main difference is that the NAM takes the really heavy band off the NJ coast and towards Long Island before it weakens. The Euro is more of a brush job. The RGEM is a direct hit. It's still coming north at hr 48. Would cause flooding concerns if this even remotely verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z GFS totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 !8z GFS looks like the NAM, but a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 !8z GFS looks like the NAM, but a bit south Whenever you have the RGEM an Euro in good agreement inside 48 hours it's always a safe bet. I'm taking the over on 2" or more for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 6hr Flash Flood Guidance for those interested. Looks like they are pretty safe unless the RGEM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Whenever you have the RGEM an Euro in good agreement inside 48 hours it's always a safe bet. I'm taking the over on 2" or more for NYC. Agree. Next few runs of GFS/NAM will likely inch north to match those 2 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 00z NAM is well north through 36 hours. 1"+ mark into Massachusetts and west to about KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 By 45 4+ blob over south shore of LI and still coming down heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Everyone should be over 3" this run. Everyone is at 2"+ already through hr 48 and it's still raining hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM looks like the Rgem. Huge totals for NYC and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 00z nam is very wet for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 the nam finally caved to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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