IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 http://hurri.kean.edu/~keancast/newmodels/models/jma12z.html JMA ftiw, looks like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro ens tot precip is the same as 12z maybe a little wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I think this system will dampen most of us, not necessarily erase rainfall deficits. While it looks like we get some rain across the area, it looks more nasty than it does wet. I'm thinking most of us get slightly under an inch. WX/PT We were unfortunately overdue for a raw, nasty stretch after the sunny and warm last few weeks have been. Hopefully we'll at least get enough rain to re-awaken all the plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It's a good thing the low is weak, otherwise coastal flooding would've been very significant. The high and low are pretty close to each other and if the low were say under 1000 mbs, there would be significant problems with wind, erosion, and coastal flooding. Not sure how to upload photos via iPhone on here. Where I am currently working in weehawken, NJ at this marina, tide is already higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It's a good thing the low is weak, otherwise coastal flooding would've been very significant. The high and low are pretty close to each other and if the low were say under 1000 mbs, there would be significant problems with wind, erosion, and coastal flooding.Coastal flooding may very we'll be significant. Unrelenting northeast winds of 40-50 mph for several days gonna be a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Coastal flooding may very we'll be significant. Unrelenting northeast winds of 40-50 mph for several days gonna be a big problem. 40-50 mph winds is a real stretch with this weak of a low. There will probably be some gusty 20 or 30 mph winds near the coast but nothing enough to cause any real damage. It's going to be a raw, damp maritime flow regime with maybe some shots of rain for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 40-50 mph winds is a real stretch with this weak of a low. There will probably be some gusty 20 or 30 mph winds near the coast but nothing enough to cause any real damage. It's going to be a raw, damp maritime flow regime with maybe some shots of rain for a few days. Not a stretch at all. Winds are steadily increasing as the system intensifies...winds are already staring to gust over 20mph...Will only be stronger tomorrow and beyond. Winds gusting to 50 on the outer banks already. Strongest winds will be on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Not a stretch at all. Winds are steadily increasing as the system intensifies...winds are already staring to gust over 20mph...Will only be stronger tomorrow and beyond. Winds gusting to 50 on the outer banks already. Strongest winds will be on the NJ coast.I don't see any gusts over 35, are you talking about offshore buoys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z GGEM is pretty epic, especially just south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z ECMWF has the 0.75"+ line into NYC within 36 hours. Rains start between 00z and 06z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 12z Euro has a nice bullseye over LI through 12z friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro not backing down at all, this run may end up wetter than all previous runs based on the precip placement. Especially for eastern areas. 2.5"+ for most of central and eastern LI by hour 54. Rain over the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 A stronger surface high will not suppress a storm system. It's about the placement/strength of the mid and upper level features. The stronger surface high was pointed out because that would increase the pressure gradient, and thus increase our winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 So i would imagine the totals amount to an inch or so? So all in all rain shouldn't be a big problem. The general consensus is raw, dreary, breezy weather for a few days, which is just fine for me, I love this type of weather. Will have to monitor the coastal flooding situation though. I don't know how vulnerable the coasts still are but I'm sure any long duration onshore flow is never a good thing. OT: Pretty epic looking cold shot at the end of the 12z gfs run for late October. In general it's looking much colder heading forward after a strong cold front clears the coast end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Through 72 hours, the Euro shows 2-3" of rain for most of the area, with a large 3" bubble JUST offshore of NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Steadiest rain still focused over Central LI at 72-78 hrs on Euro and pulls away by 78-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 i think precip maxima won't be known til the event is ongoing... the important fact is that the euro held Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Through 72 hours, the Euro shows 2-3" of rain for most of the area, with a large 3" bubble JUST offshore of NJ and LI. I think this is nearly the final solution. Maybe a few minors tweaks in terms of wind gust and HP strength, along with rainfall, but I can see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Still raining Saturday night on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 i think precip maxima won't be known til the event is ongoing... the important fact is that the euro held Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro not backing down at all, this run may end up wetter than all previous runs based on the precip placement. Especially for eastern areas. 2.5"+ for most of central and eastern LI by hour 54. Rain over the entire area. Doesn't look like a heavy rain event in terms of a lot at one time, looks like a moderate rain spread over a long period of time. Given the Euro's steadfastness it's a more likely outcome than the crushed solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 light/moderate rain is best for water absorption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Exactly. completely agree, there will be heavy bands sweeping in off the ocean, so there may be some locales that exceed what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 GGEM for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Impressive euro run. Likes long Island and sw ct for heaviest rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 GGEM for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro: NYC: 2.44"ISP: 3.26"FOK: 3.35"BDR: 2.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 wonder if the NAM will buy a vowel at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 these two dry high res models also develop convective screw blobs offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 these two dry high res models also develop convective screw blobs offshore Offshore Redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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