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Cut off Nor'easter threat 10/10-10/12


Brian5671

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If this were winter, there would be a lot of head pounding and nervousness as the cutoff is very sharp and close to the area. 

If this were winter, this would probably be rain anyway. Note the cold air supply is completely cut off from the system and a ridge is over top the closed low. It would be maybe for the mountains and the air mass is completely maritime-origin.

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If this were winter, this would probably be rain anyway. Note the cold air supply is completely cut off from the system and a ridge is over top the closed low. It would be maybe for the mountains and the air mass is completely maritime-origin.

 

I was more or less referring to the strong precipitation gradient/cut-off rather than the synoptic setup, but yes even in winter this would still favor rain for the reasons you stated. Still, I'm not sure what the big deal is if we get an inch of rain or two inches of rain over a few days. I mean sure once we get 3"+ then it becomes more of a concern, but not in this scenario, at least up here. The biggest issue will probably be some minor coastal flooding due to the duration of the onshore flow. It's certainly been breezy already. 

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I was more or less referring to the strong precipitation gradient/cut-off rather than the synoptic setup, but yes even in winter this would still favor rain for the reasons you stated. Still, I'm not sure what the big deal is if we get an inch of rain or two inches of rain over a few days. I mean sure once we get 3"+ then it becomes more of a concern, but not in this scenario, at least up here. The biggest issue will probably be some minor coastal flooding due to the duration of the onshore flow. It's certainly been breezy already. 

Most of us are behind on rain so it will be welcomed. Most of the lawns and trees here are browning. Other than that, it should be a raw and miserable several days on an easterly wind, so it won't be pleasant by any means.

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Most of us are behind on rain so it will be welcomed. Most of the lawns and trees here are browning. Other than that, it should be a raw and miserable several days on an easterly wind, so it won't be pleasant by any means.

I think this system will dampen most of us, not necessarily erase rainfall deficits. While it looks like we get some rain across the area, it looks more nasty than it does wet. I'm thinking most of us get slightly under an inch.

WX/PT

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