Weathergun Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The high over New England is now 1034mb. About 2-4mb stronger than what most models had at this point. The NAM had at 1032mb high before. Now initialized with a 1034mb high: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The NAM is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The high over New England is now 1034mb. About 2-4mb stronger than what most models had at this point. The NAM had at 1032mb high before. Now initialized with a 1034mb high: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml Interesting. The stronger high may suppress the storm to the south, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CouloirMeBad Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Quick question: A friend has a wedding on Saturday afternoon / evening near Norwalk, CT. What are the chances that the rain will be done by then? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 What looks to be the timing of the event? Start time in Somerset Co NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The NAM is responding to a stronger high. Suppression is a possibility, here.When the NAM is on it's own, it usually gets egg on it's face a la march 25 2013.The NAM doesn't really look like the current radar at all either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 12z NAM is a hot mess. It's currently 15z exactly. Current depiction for this hour by the NAM When in reality, it's currently raining in Cape May, NJ. So it would appear that the NAM is about a hundred miles too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Quick question: A friend has a wedding on Saturday afternoon / evening near Norwalk, CT. What are the chances that the rain will be done by then? Thanks! I think most models have it ending by Sat AM in that area (which is right near me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 the nam's stubbornness reminds me of ernesto when it was wrong the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The NAM also has no rain at 15z in Virginia, when in reality, the rain shield is extending all the way to Lynchburg, VA. It may not end up meaning anything, but you have to admit that it's current depiction is pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Some areas in eastern NC are already estimated at over 3" and it's only been raining at between .10" and .25" rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CouloirMeBad Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I think most models have it ending by Sat AM in that area (which is right near me) Great. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 the nam's stubbornness reminds me of ernesto when it was wrong the entire time what a mess that was--tropical storm warnings for everywhere and then hardly any QPF or wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z gfs has 1+ from I-80 south. Snj gets 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I don't know how people still seriously jump off the cliff at a NAM run. Didn't we learn anything after the last few winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 If this were winter, there would be a lot of head pounding and nervousness as the cutoff is very sharp and close to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 By sat the 2 inch line gets to about the Driscoll bridge in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 If this were winter, there would be a lot of head pounding and nervousness as the cutoff is very sharp and close to the area. If this were winter, this would probably be rain anyway. Note the cold air supply is completely cut off from the system and a ridge is over top the closed low. It would be maybe for the mountains and the air mass is completely maritime-origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Still drizzle and light rain in the area all day Saturday on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 GFS moving towards the Euro. 2.5"+ mark gets to Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 12z GFS brings the 2.00" line close to Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Still drizzle and light rain in the area all day Saturday on gfs 48+ hrs to get to the 1" mark. Looks light almost the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 If this were winter, this would probably be rain anyway. Note the cold air supply is completely cut off from the system and a ridge is over top the closed low. It would be maybe for the mountains and the air mass is completely maritime-origin. I was more or less referring to the strong precipitation gradient/cut-off rather than the synoptic setup, but yes even in winter this would still favor rain for the reasons you stated. Still, I'm not sure what the big deal is if we get an inch of rain or two inches of rain over a few days. I mean sure once we get 3"+ then it becomes more of a concern, but not in this scenario, at least up here. The biggest issue will probably be some minor coastal flooding due to the duration of the onshore flow. It's certainly been breezy already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z GFS has rain in NYC from 03z tonight through 00z Saturday night, with the heaviest and steadiest rain on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 48+ hrs to get to the 1" mark. Looks light almost the entire time If the GFS is off by less than 50 miles we get dumped on. It has that blob hugging the coast and staying "just" and I mean just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 If the GFS is off by less than 50 miles we get dumped on. It has that blob hugging the coast and staying "just" and I mean just offshore. Yeah I'm not expecting this run to be its final solution but either way we're in for several days of raw wet weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I was more or less referring to the strong precipitation gradient/cut-off rather than the synoptic setup, but yes even in winter this would still favor rain for the reasons you stated. Still, I'm not sure what the big deal is if we get an inch of rain or two inches of rain over a few days. I mean sure once we get 3"+ then it becomes more of a concern, but not in this scenario, at least up here. The biggest issue will probably be some minor coastal flooding due to the duration of the onshore flow. It's certainly been breezy already. Most of us are behind on rain so it will be welcomed. Most of the lawns and trees here are browning. Other than that, it should be a raw and miserable several days on an easterly wind, so it won't be pleasant by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It's a good thing the low is weak, otherwise coastal flooding would've been very significant. The high and low are pretty close to each other and if the low were say under 1000 mbs, there would be significant problems with wind, erosion, and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 12z RGEM keeping the rain SW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Most of us are behind on rain so it will be welcomed. Most of the lawns and trees here are browning. Other than that, it should be a raw and miserable several days on an easterly wind, so it won't be pleasant by any means. I think this system will dampen most of us, not necessarily erase rainfall deficits. While it looks like we get some rain across the area, it looks more nasty than it does wet. I'm thinking most of us get slightly under an inch. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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