Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Cut off Nor'easter threat 10/10-10/12


Brian5671

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 296
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Meanwhile they are getting killed in Pa and southern half of Jersey. What model had that? 

 

7AM GFS:

 

gfs_namer_006_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

7AM NAM:

 

nam_namer_006_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Really Nam? I mean the GFS is off too but the NAM is beyond embarrassing. This is a 6 hour forecast people!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I looked at the models late in the game, but the NAM crapped the bed the most, I mean yesterday's 6z NAM was so terrible that close to an event, reminds me of winters where everyone's last hope is the NAM even though the radar is showing something totally different. I will never look at the NAM all winter. Its GFS/EURO combo IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a total fail, barely anything from this, I even thought we could muster up an inch but wow, not even a shower or sprinkles. 

 

We knew this was going to happen early yesterday when the dry slot pushed up into the area where the previous

model runs had increasing rains. Add to that the remnant low from karen and a big high to the north and you 

had a very difficult forecast.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html

 

1-25-00 was another famous example of a dry slot spoiling the show.

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/000125_ir3_java.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I looked at the models late in the game, but the NAM crapped the bed the most, I mean yesterday's 6z NAM was so terrible that close to an event, reminds me of winters where everyone's last hope is the NAM even though the radar is showing something totally different. I will never look at the NAM all winter. Its GFS/EURO combo IMO.

I disagree .. the nam consistently had 2 areas of precip and one was in central pa and the other along the nj coast. It flipped to what the other models showed for its last two model runs before the storm started. The gfs was never impressed either with this. Euro and can had multiple runs of 2-4 inch of rain plus for the majority of our area

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree .. the nam consistently had 2 areas of precip and one was in central pa and the other along the nj coast. It flipped to what the other models showed for its last two model runs before the storm started. The gfs was never impressed either with this. Euro and can had multiple runs of 2-4 inch of rain plus for the majority of our area

 

Look at my post. That is a 6 hour forecast from the NAM. That is so off it's ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree .. the nam consistently had 2 areas of precip and one was in central pa and the other along the nj coast. It flipped to what the other models showed for its last two model runs before the storm started. The gfs was never impressed either with this. Euro and can had multiple runs of 2-4 inch of rain plus for the majority of our area

Every model was wrong..whether it showed 1" or 4" because we got nothing. I think only the RGEM actually showed nothing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is drving me absolutly crazy. We cannot buy rain here. I mean trees are dying really really bad drought going on here. less then an inch of rain in 3 months!!!!! It is pissing me off since I am landscape designer and my work is dying.

Wow... less than an inch of rain ? Thats bad. So thats from mid july till now? I've had about 7.50 in. during that period.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HARRISBURG...
...OCTOBER 2013 NOW THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG...

A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 5.72 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG
YESTERDAY OCTOBER 11TH 2013. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.47
INCHES SET BACK IN 1905. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT
AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.

A TOTAL OF 10.48 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH MAKES OCTOBER 2013
THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST
OCTOBER WAS 1976 AT 9.87 INCHES.


 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

226 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HARRISBURG...

...OCTOBER 2013 NOW THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG...

A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 5.72 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG

YESTERDAY OCTOBER 11TH 2013. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.47

INCHES SET BACK IN 1905. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT

AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.

A TOTAL OF 10.48 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH MAKES OCTOBER 2013

THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST

OCTOBER WAS 1976 AT 9.87 INCHES.

 

 

Unreal and here its .14 for the month and .86 for the past 3 months. This is killing me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...someone once said 'when your in a drought forecast a drought'..not

a drop out here on the east end..very dry..next week looks dry too!

 

 

This crazy as* rain streaming in here.

Looks like it's all done to then east then bang some more and moving west again.

I'm on the "dry" side of this. And I can't say I miss Octobers like 2005 or years like 1972, 1983 or 2011.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...