Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 models pointing to a prolonged rain event especially NYC south and east...discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 21z SREF's are very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Gfs has yet to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Gfs has yet to come on board.18z GEFS mean was NW of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Gfs has yet to come on board. Neither has the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yes nam is way south. I'm going to still ride the euro. It's ensembles where very wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This is a real head scratcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This is a real head scratcherMost of the reliable guidance has been wet for us. Plus the 4k NAM is NW of the regular NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 21z SREF's are very wet What constitutes "very wet"? NYC gets approximately .67" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 What constitutes "very wet"? NYC gets approximately .67" It was wet for an ensemble mean. The 0.75" line makes it to NYC anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 00z RGEM going with a very sharp cut off north of the NJ/NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Ultimately this doesn't seem like it'll be anything too significant. Tonight's gfs is still pretty meh on the whole thing, on the Rgem it looks like the heaviest stays to our south and offshore, so maybe we'll rack up an inch to an inch and a half over 3 days, no big deal. If tonight's Euro is still a big hit, then I'll bite as it's usually excellent in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 00Z EURO is looking like the 00Z RGEM (Except that the HP is slightly weaker on the EURO). Basically, the SLP moves tucks in towards the Delmarva Coast for 48 hours from Thursday to Saturday AM. Then it finally moves ENE by Saturday and then fades away while drifting ENE. EDIT: What's pretty interesting is that the 850 mB wind field shows 30kts+ over SW NYC/EWR at HR48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 HPC rainfall over the next 72 hours has really increased across the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 06Z NAM is slowly caving in towards the 00Z EURO. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013100906&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-850mb&hour=042 Let's throw the 06Z GFS in there too, except that the 06Z GFS has a nearly identical solution (without the quick fading throughout Saturday). http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013100906&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-850mb&hour=036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 00z Euro was 2.5-3" plus for mostly everyone from Rockland south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 00z Euro was 2.5-3" plus for mostly everyone from Rockland south. Hard to go against this Euro this close in. I'd expect the others to continue to creep toward the Euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 00z Euro was 2.5-3" plus for mostly everyone from Rockland south. Sounds like less precip shield suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Hard to go against this Euro this close in. I'd expect the others to continue to creep toward the Euro solution They are already doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 They are already doing so. As we all know, it's always good to have the euro on our side. No matter what, several inches of rain, gusty winds, and beach erosion concerns are very likely. 12z runs will be key.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yes we need the rain. Monday was not what I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Both the 06z RGEM and the 00z GGEM were wet for the area. The 100mm+ (3.94") makes it up to Monmouth County this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 NAM says it is a no go for the storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 NAM says it is a no go for the storm...lol Wow. Either it's onto something and the Euro gives up at 12z or it's just plain wrong...probably the latter given history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 NAM says it is a no go for the storm...lol If we've learned anything from last winter, the NAM shouldn't be trusted for any kind of solution. It could be dead wrong as the event is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 reliably bad model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Winds gusts reported now between 40-50mph in the Outer Banks of NC. Remains to be seen how far north this will get though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 12Z NAM precip valid 15z looks way off lookijng at the current radar, the HRRR looks on the nose while the 06Z GFS may be too far west. My concern is if you run through the 11Z HRRR it seems near the end of its run to want to not be advancing the precip too far north but the end of the HRRR runs tend to be very wishy washy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The NAM and SREFs are awful on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 it's the wettest sref run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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