harrisale Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 i would like to see some better confirmation myself, just from looking at that lady reporter near the eye of the storm, who looks like she was getting blown around by more than 200kph winds. Saw that as well, she was really getting hit with some serious gusts. She was also reporting from about 20km inland, wind at the coast would be more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 worst part is, sfc obs in that area are non-existent. Maybe after this the Indian Government will install some automated observation stations. even the equivalent of AO5's and AO8's would be better than nothing, even though AO2's would be preferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 just saw there was an automated observing site there near landfall. only problem is, the indian government seems like they make it such a pain for outsiders to get the data. http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/ but given the obs and the radar down there, this site had the eye right over them. question is, at 1750z, their observation was 938hPa and the winds were 22 m/s with a south wind. so what would the extrapolated center pressure be from that? 930-935? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I'd be shocked if there was much left of Gopalpur in the morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 just saw there was an automated observing site there near landfall. only problem is, the indian government seems like they make it such a pain for outsiders to get the data. http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/ but given the obs and the radar down there, this site had the eye right over them. question is, at 1750z, their observation was 938hPa and the winds were 22 m/s with a south wind. so what would the extrapolated center pressure be from that? 930-935? good find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 good find i found that link from Eric Holthaus's tweet. i just wish they wouldn't make it so hard for anyone to find relevant data like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I think this is one of the relative few major tropical cyclone landfalls this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 On radar, the old inner eyewall stayed remarkably coherent and even looked liked it strengthened a little right up through landfall at Gopalpur. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 No matter how much it weakened before landfall, storm surge had to be insane, given its strength 18 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 The intensity at landfall looks very close to Hugo coming ashore in South Carolina back in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 The intensity at landfall looks very close to Hugo coming ashore in South Carolina back in 1989. Yeah, incredibly impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Yes I think that CIMMS imagery interpolates between actual images, and that tight eye inland may be a result of interpolation. I could be wrong. Especially looking at latest pot from Red Sox Dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I think that CIMMS imagery interpolates between actual images, and that tight eye inland may be a result of interpolation. I could be wrong. Especially looking at latest pot from Red Sox Dude. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/phailin13/Phailin_12Oct13_vsk.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/phailin13/Phailin_12Oct13_vsk.gif I had to F-5 that. You're probably telling me I am wrong, and I could be wrong, but that eye fills fairly quickly, IMHO, per that radar once inland. And I still think that CIMSS imagery interpolates between fresh images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I had to F-5 that. You're probably telling me I am wrong, and I could be wrong, but that eye fills fairly quickly, IMHO, per that radar once inland. And I still think that CIMSS imagery interpolates between fresh images. looks the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Hello Please forgive me if I shouldn't be posting this here, but there are some great updates further down past the OP (as well as some good info in the OP in regard to updates) and a few pictures. I thought y'all might be interested to look at it. If this isn't okay to be posting, please let me know so I know for the future. http://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1o827g/cyclone_phailin_watch_thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Hello Please forgive me if I shouldn't be posting this here, but there are some great updates further down past the OP (as well as some good info in the OP in regard to updates) and a few pictures. I thought y'all might be interested to look at it. If this isn't okay to be posting, please let me know so I know for the future.Your welcome to post anything that is on topic to the thread. Thanks for this resource! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 From reddit page. It's amzing if thats true because the Indian ocean doesn't average too many cyclones. When they do form they're usually intense though. wenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 From reddit page. It's amzing if thats true because the Indian ocean doesn't average too many cyclones. When they do form they're usually intense though. Yes, many of the deadliest cyclones on record have occurred in that area. Same thing that happens with tornadoes, especially in Bangladesh. Tornadoes are fairly rare, but when they do strike they're extraordinarily deadly. I've not done the math so I don't have exact figures, but a significant percentage of the world's tornado deaths occur in Bangladesh and, to a lesser extent, India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Yes, many of the deadliest cyclones on record have occurred in that area. Same thing that happens with tornadoes, especially in Bangladesh. Tornadoes are fairly rare, but when they do strike they're extraordinarily deadly. I've not done the math so I don't have exact figures, but a significant percentage of the world's tornado deaths occur in Bangladesh and, to a lesser extent, India. Deadliest tornado in world history was April 26th, 1989 in Bangladesh, killed nearly twice as many as the Tri-State tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases... Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside. I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- we refer to it as "Cinnabun"-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low). Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases... Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside. I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low). Interestin'. I highly, highly, highly doubt the station was able to get an accurate measurement of the peak winds. It probably failed at 49 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Well this is interesting ," India met dept win battle over forecasts". I have to agree with them in that Phailin never should have been compared to Katrina, it's IKE was never in that category as stated earlier in this thread. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-phailin-india-meteorological-department-wins-battle-over-forecasts-431657?pfrom=home-otherstories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Well this is interesting ," India met dept win battle over forecasts". I have to agree with them in that Phailin never should have been compared to Katrina, it's IKE was never in that category as stated earlier in this thread. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-phailin-india-meteorological-department-wins-battle-over-forecasts-431657?pfrom=home-otherstoriesThe IKE was only so high with Katrina because of the size of the windfield (see Sandy for reference) and the IMD had the radius of tropical storm force winds and about 50-60% less than it actually was in all quadrants. They also got lucky with the ERC right before landfall, they underestimated the intensity pretty much the entire time and then when the storm weakens right before landfall (and still had a pressure of about 935mb at landfall) they claim a so called"victory". I would've had a big problem with that if they would've downplayed the storm to the point of not taken any precautions, fortunately though they took every necessary measure to ensure the people's safety so it's all about pride now, which is fine by me . Overall, this storm was very likely a big and mean 160 mph storm at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The IKE was only so high with Katrina because of the size of the windfield (see Sandy for reference) and the IMD had the radius of tropical storm force winds and about 50-60% less than it actually was in all quadrants. They also got lucky with the ERC right before landfall, they underestimated the intensity pretty much the entire time and then when the storm weakens right before landfall (and still had a pressure of about 935mb at landfall) they claim a so called"victory". I would've had a big problem with that if they would've downplayed the storm to the point of not taken any precautions, fortunately though they took every necessary measure to ensure the people's safety so it's all about pride now, which is fine by me . Overall, this storm was very likely a big and mean 160 mph storm at some point.What was Katrina's wind speed at LF? I believe their estimate of surge was pretty spot on, remember Katrina's damage was mostly surge related. I agree with them the comparisons to Katrina were wrong. The wind speed issue I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 What was Katrina's wind speed at LF? I believe their estimate of surge was pretty spot on, remember Katrina's damage was mostly surge related. I agree with them the comparisons to Katrina were wrong. The wind speed issue I agree with you.Katrina made landfall as a 135 mph storm but given the size and strengths just 24 hours before that the storm had already channeled a tremendous amount of water and places east of the center had a 15 foot storm surge. It's also worth noting that being that Phailin had a relatively small core compared to the overall size of the storm (as opposed to the more "Annular" Katrina) it was never going to have a 20 foot surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Katrina made landfall as a 135 mph storm but given the size and strengths just 24 hours before that the storm had already channeled a tremendous amount of water and places east of the center had a 15 foot storm surge. Katrina storm surge was above 20 feet in Mississippi. Biloxi River at Wortham recorded 26 feet - http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/?n=psh_katrina This report says 25-28 ft storm surge in Mississippi - worst storm surge in U.S. history? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/ A lot of the focus with Katrina was in New Orleans, but coastal Mississippi got absolutely hammered. Oddly enough, Camille in 1969 hit the exact same area with storm surge of 24 ft in Pass Christian, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases... Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside. I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- we refer to it as "Cinnabun"-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low). Interestin'. didn't that sensor read in meters/sec, not knots? it was like 46m/s at the top speed (100mph). the 49 kt was when the eye came through to the south, which is why I was wondering how much deeper it was giving the 22m/s at 938. i know there's some conversion at that point where you can extrapolate from winds/pressure at a location to the center pressure where winds would be 0. i forget what that equation was to make that conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Hey, guys-- I got those data straight from Jeff Masters, who reported that the max sustained wind at that location was 56 mph, which I then converted to knots. I trust him as a source, as I don't think Dr. Masters would misunderstand the measurement units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Here are the data. The anemometer functioned and took measurements through to the eye-- you can see the velocity dip coinciding with the lowest pressure: http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/ I'm not suggesting 49 kt is representative of the storm's intensity at the time. Surface obs almost never are. But these data do make me wonder if this thing was a Cat 4 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.