Ensō Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Yeah, I assume the Katrina references are more about the current intensity and potential severity of impact. Unfortunately could end up a whole lot worse, but hopefully the evacuations have been successful and the loss of life can be minimized as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Assuming you're plugging in the JTWC wind radii into that ACE calculate, then you're going to get a wonky and too-small result. Those numbers are way too low; can;t figure out what JTWC is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 That wouldn't be surprising given how ginormous Katrina was. Katrina was roughly 400 miles across with landfall in Louisiana. Phailin is, as I read earlier, 820 miles across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 That wouldn't be surprising given how ginormous Katrina was. Yea the size is incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 It looks similar to the following cyclones that I can remember. Charlie Dean Felix Alex Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Yea the size is incredible! WVEC Street Level.png Oops? Maybe I misread the 820? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Night visible looks insane on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Assuming you're plugging in the JTWC wind radii into that ACE calculate, then you're going to get a wonky and too-small result. Those numbers are way too low; can;t figure out what JTWC is thinking.yes only numbers I could find and go by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 http://newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/Cyclone-Phailin-heading-towards-Odisha-gains-strength/2013/10/11/article1830969.ece?utm_content=buffer96b0a&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer this is from an Indian paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 T-numbers are beginning to drop from both NOAA and CIMSS. Not that it really matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Oops? Maybe I misread the 820? Maybe that was north-south? Either way, this is just massive. I can't imagine what the Storm Surge will be, between the enormous size, strength, and geometry of the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 T-numbers are beginning to drop from both NOAA and CIMSS. Not that it really matters at this point. ERC underway. You can see about 3 hot towers orbiting the new eyewall in the visible. Probably won't become dominant before landfall, but it definitely means a larger area of 75+ winds and probably lower maximum sustained winds. Edit2: TRMM clears up any doubt that a new eye is trying to form to the wsw of the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Umm. Looks pretty damn populated. This could end up really really bad. Will the higher elevation help prevent some wind damage or make it worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Umm. Looks pretty damn populated. This could end up really really bad. Will the higher elevation help prevent some wind damage or make it worse? Probably worse wind damage further inland where the terrain is higher. The flow of winds around the Cyclone will be forced up against the higher terrain. Flash flooding, rock/mud slides will no doubt be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Umm. Looks pretty damn populated. This could end up really really bad. Will the higher elevation help prevent some wind damage or make it worse? Flooding from rainfall and surge combined will be catastrophic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 20131012.0208.trmm.x.composite.02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E.57pc.jpg Amazing, looks like we should have landfall in the next handfull of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Just no words, just crazy. Those images alone tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 530z visible confirms the microwave imagery depicting the moat between the current eyewall and the surrounding strong convection. Also looks like the cyclone isn't quite as tightly wound as earlier, but obviously still very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 trying to get a latest radar out of India. and their servers must not be prepared for the load coming from mets around the world as well as the people there in India itself. have to admit, it would be nice if they had a point and click map to go off of, so I'm not guessing on radar sites (the one from earlier i think is out of range of the center of the storm now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Partial live coverage of the landfall (weird watching Indian commercials). http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 on ND 24, the headlines say there storm surge between 3 and 3.5m (10-12ft) and gusts to 240km/h (150mph). they also have reporters on the ground near ground zero, like US news outlets. http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 On NDTV, a reporter in Gopalpur was just interviewing several fishermen who are still trying to get their boats secured. The storm is about 2 hours from landfall there, the town is beginning to flood, no one can stand up straight, and the reporter and all these people are on the beach worried about these boats. And NDTV is still reporting the storm surge will be 3 meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 On NDTV, a reporter in Gopalpur was just interviewing several fishermen who are still trying to get their boats secured. The storm is about 2 hours from landfall there, the town is beginning to flood, no one can stand up straight, and the reporter and all these people are on the beach worried about these boats. And NDTV is still reporting the storm surge will be 3 meters. This is what really worried me about this storm. When we think boats in Western culture, we think recreation. For these people, a boat is their only way of eating. Their livelihood. They probably ventured out to fish because they had to. Now they are trying to save their boats. So sad. The loss of life with this storm will be very high because people cannot prepare like we can. Life or death, they have to go fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 On radar, the old inner eyewall stayed remarkably coherent and even looked liked it strengthened a little right up through landfall at Gopalpur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 well, the indian met agency has on NDTV 24x7 said the actual wind speeds at landfall near 200kph (~125mph), gusts to 235 (~145mph). not as high as it could have been, but still nasty. storm surge reportedly near 3-3.5m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 well, the indian met agency has on NDTV 24x7 said the actual wind speeds at landfall near 200kph (~125mph), gusts to 235 (~145mph). not as high as it could have been, but still nasty. "Actual" wind speeds? I find it difficult to believe that there's a working anemometer at Gopalpur. Those winds just reflect their somewhat deflated wind speed estimates (first deflation is using 10-minute average for max sustained, second deflation is their refusal to declare the storm a Cat 5 earlier because it would embarrass themselves regarding their earlier claim it wouldn't be a super-cyclone). Of course, it's obviously weakened since the peak yesterday. There's no recon, I find it incredibly unlikely that a valid anemometer that survives is anywhere remotely near the center, so the IMD is going to report wind speeds that validate its forecasts and estimates, with the average person never realizing that the maximum winds were never ACTUALLY measured at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 "Actual" wind speeds? I find it difficult to believe that there's a working anemometer at Gopalpur. Those winds just reflect their somewhat deflated wind speed estimates (first deflation is using 10-minute average for max sustained, second deflation is their refusal to declare the storm a Cat 5 earlier because it would embarrass themselves regarding their earlier claim it wouldn't be a super-cyclone). Of course, it's obviously weakened since the peak yesterday. There's no recon, I find it incredibly unlikely that a valid anemometer that survives is anywhere remotely near the center, so the IMD is going to report wind speeds that validate its forecasts and estimates, with the average person never realizing that the maximum winds were never ACTUALLY measured at any point. i would like to see some better confirmation myself, just from looking at that lady reporter near the eye of the storm, who looks like she was getting blown around by more than 200kph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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