TalcottWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Is this is as bad as it appears? Could be catastrophic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Haven't been tracking cyclones in the BOB for that long, but this is by far the most impressive system I can remember nind.gif That thing is MASSIVE, good god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The last track map I took and plotted onto Google Earth so everyone can see where this Cyclone is heading. Looks like the city of Brahmapur. Phailintrack.png It's been well off that track to the South ever since that advisory, looks like more than just a trochoidal wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 The last track map I took and plotted onto Google Earth so everyone can see where this Cyclone is heading. Looks like the city of Brahmapur. Considering it has currently deviated about 50 miles to the south of that track, with a 6hr heading of 285, I think landfall will be further south the coast, closer to Srikakulam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Perfect pass by NOAA-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Eye temp up to 4.64C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Considering it has currently deviated about 50 miles to the south of that track, with a 6hr heading of 285, I think landfall will be further south the coast, closer to Srikakulamand that's a worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Considering it has currently deviated about 50 miles to the south of that track, with a 6hr heading of 285, I think landfall will be further south the coast, closer to Srikakulam O, that far! Looks like in addition to surge, the mountains just a little bit inland will really take a beating with heavy rain. Terrain between 2000-4000ft. Mudslides, rock slides will likely be common with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Perfect pass by NOAA-16 2013IO02_1KMIRIMG_201310111424.GIF That stadium effect is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 This has to be one of the most successful EWRC in a long time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_02B/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 It looks like it has finally turned more poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 This has to be one of the most successful EWRC in a long time: Indeed. I've never seen one more perfect and quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That stadium effect is insane. What is the stadium effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 What is the stadium effect? It's how the eyewall slopes down towards the eye with the appearance of a stadium in intense hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Indeed. I've never seen one more perfect and quick. Yeah, the fact that it had no dry air and near perfect shear conditions really helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 STY Bopha (Dec 2012) went thru a few successful ERCs http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/121201-03_mimic_bopha_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 anyone found a good working radar on the Indian coast? saw one earlier but its beam seemed to extend only about 20 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Reminds me of Monica (but I still think Monica was stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down? UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 190000 UTC Lat : 16:58:00 N Lon : 87:01:06 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.8 7.1 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down? UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 190000 UTC Lat : 16:58:00 N Lon : 87:01:06 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.8 7.1 7.1 Yeah I'd love to see a "true" intensity over time chart with storms this powerful, as slight, short-lived environmental permutations probably have huge impacts on the actual strength of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah I'd love to see a "true" intensity over time chart with storms this powerful, as slight, short-lived environmental permutations probably have huge impacts on the actual strength of the system Well, the real long-term answer is affordable, persistent UAV reconnaissance of storms in all basins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down? UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 190000 UTC Lat : 16:58:00 N Lon : 87:01:06 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.8 7.1 7.1 Maybe because the eye is so small and the satellite resolution rather poor in that area, the eye temperature is not being well measured? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Maybe because the eye is so small and the satellite resolution rather poor in that area, the eye temperature is not being well measured? Probably a good guess; speaking of same: 2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -81.25 EYE 16 IR 44.9 17.04 -87.03 2013OCT11 193000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.2 6.3 5.3 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -64.56 -78.29 EMBC N/A 44.9 17.46 -86.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Well, the real long-term answer is affordable, persistent UAV reconnaissance of storms in all basins. Given the impacts that the environment has on its member states, I wonder why the UN isn't more active in sponsoring that type of surveillance and research (sorry, this is off-topic I guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Well, the real long-term answer is affordable, persistent UAV reconnaissance of storms in all basins. Oh how I wish we could have aircraft flying into the center to measure this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Probably a good guess; speaking of same: 2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -81.25 EYE 16 IR 44.9 17.04 -87.03 2013OCT11 193000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.2 6.3 5.3 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -64.56 -78.29 EMBC N/A 44.9 17.46 -86.80 Haha, the eye temp dropped 69.5c in 30 minutes, that would be some type of open ocean weakening record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Haha, the eye temp dropped 69.5c in 30 minutes, that would be some type of open ocean weakening record. Well, in the 1930 image the eywall convection seems to have warmed quite a bit, but the eye itself looks to have suddenly wobbled back north - I suspect the algorithm simply doesn't have the eye in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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