wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 thank you, while India is obviously well-populated almost everywhere, Phailin appears to be heading toward the least well-populated portion of the Bay of Bengal coast, which hopefully will result in a verification of the best possible scenario (in relation to the other possible scenarios) come tomorrow evening local India time...or am I being naive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thanks, had to ctrl+f5, I had the old page cached. I wish I could find where he got that though so I could over lay it onto maps. Link for Wxman9 http://www.cwcvsk.gov.in/rdr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 thank you, while India is obviously well-populated almost everywhere, Phailin appears to be heading toward the least well-populated portion of the Bay of Bengal coast, which hopefully will result in a verification of the best possible scenario (in relation to the other possible scenarios) come tomorrow evening local India time...or am I being naive? Thing about anywhere in India is "least populated" is a relative term. The JTWC track has the eye going directly over the city of Brahmapur, 6 miles inland, population 350,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 They mention is undergoing one now so that will be complete with max strength at LF it appears, damn. Ground zero ,2 million people at 16 feet elevation. Visakhapathnam is well south of the forecasted track...but there has been a big wobble to the left...that increases the probabilities of this city to get very close to the eye...that would be the worst case scenario, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 thank you, while India is obviously well-populated almost everywhere, Phailin appears to be heading toward the least well-populated portion of the Bay of Bengal coast, which hopefully will result in a verification of the best possible scenario (in relation to the other possible scenarios) come tomorrow evening local India time...or am I being naive? Srikakulam 3M folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 india's dept of meteorology is only predicting a storm surge of 3m (~9ft). This thing will bring surge double that. So the IMD webpage is a epic collection of fail (you have to open a PDF to get a forecast? For a country of over 1 billion people?) http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf So this is the 12Z advisory....some lowlights. In fairness to the IMD, there are some articles (on Reuters) contrasting the IMD forecast with JTWC, but they are comparing the JTWC gust forecast to the IMD sustained wind forecast; IMD uses 10-minute sustained winds while NHC and the JTWC uses 1-minute winds; this exaggerates the differences in the forecast beyond the big difference that is already there. Typically a 10-min wind is about 88% of a 1 min wind. Interestingly they have a discussion of the MJO phase further down in the advisory. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 6.0. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 14.0 0N TO 17.00N AND LONG 86.00E TO 89.00E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -760C. THE SYSTEM IS EYE PATTERN. EYE IS CIRCULAR WITH DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 KM. EYE TEMP MINUS 6 DEG C. CLOUD FEATURES SUGGESTS NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM(.) MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 120 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 940 HPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 11500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 87.4E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NMSOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITEIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SLIGHTLY-CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC EYE, APPROXIMATELY 9 NM IN DIAMETER, WITHMULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE CIRCULATIONCENTER. THE 11/0000Z-11/1345Z MORPHED INTEGRATED MICROWAVE IMAGERYAT CIMSS (MIMIC) ANIMATION PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEMUNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.THE NEWLY FORMED EYEWALL HAS CONSOLIDATED AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TOSLIGHTLY INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATUREIN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISBASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. UPPERLEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FOUR DEGREESSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TCPHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUETRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF BENGAL ANDMAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST AFTER TAU 24.THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTSOVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERLANDFALL, TC PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THERUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THEAVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGHCONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 56FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Basically a mega F-2/3 tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Srikakulam 3M folks True, I guess I was anticipating more poleward motion than we're seeing right now and as a result bringing the eye ashore to the NE of Srikakulam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 thank you, while India is obviously well-populated almost everywhere, Phailin appears to be heading toward the least well-populated portion of the Bay of Bengal coast, which hopefully will result in a verification of the best possible scenario (in relation to the other possible scenarios) come tomorrow evening local India time...or am I being naive? Sounds like that area is still very well populated, Jen Carfagno from TWC just posted the population of the state of Orissa is 40 million, not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Sounds like that area is still very well populated, Jen Carfagno from TWC just posted the population of the state of Orissa is 40 million, not good at all. I think it will hit Andhra Pradesh, very close to the border with Orissa though. Andhra Pradesh population is over 84mil ... considering that adding up their populations they have a greater population than all Mexico, this won't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 India is just an awful place in general for tropical cyclones... too many people along the coasts there. Out of the top 10 deadliest cyclones ever, five are from India, three from Bangladesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 India is just an awful place in general for tropical cyclones... too many people along the coasts there. Out of the top 10 deadliest cyclones ever, five are from India, three from Bangladesh.yeah this is as ugly as it gets. Great Cap weather piece on impacts. 20 ft plus surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 yeah this is as ugly as it gets. Great Cap weather piece on impacts. 20 ft plus surge. I read it earlier, great article indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Region of deepest convection/coldest cloud tops still expanding. Unbelievable power. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02B/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I read it earlier, great article indeed. Could you provide a link to this? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Could you provide a link to this? Thanks. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/11/category-5-phailin-likely-a-disaster-for-india-catastrophic-storm-surge-a-certainty/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thanks, Enso... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 incredible, the eye has continued to warm over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Eye continues to warm and explode again. Intensity estimates are quickly going up once more... Wouldn't shock me at all if this was close to 150 knots 2013OCT11 180000 7.2 890.4 +0.0 146.0 7.2 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.44 -82.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 ....890.4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/11/category-5-phailin-likely-a-disaster-for-india-catastrophic-storm-surge-a-certainty/ That's an incredible false color sat shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 the rate of intensification as it nears the coast is just unreal. the surge with this storm will be astronomical, prayers to those on the coast. not sure how prepared the indian govt is for this. ryan maue just tweeted some dvorak snapshots have phailin at t 8.0, 170kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 ....890.4? ADT Estimates from here Final T is only at 7.2 and the Raw is up to 7.6. The estimated (key word) pressure should continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 ADT Estimates from here Final T is only at 7.2 and the Raw is up to 7.6. The estimated (key word) pressure should continue to drop. I know... I'm just astounded. My gut dropped. I cannot believe the explosive intensity, and how it is continuing to strengthen. I really hoped the EWRC was going to stave off some of this. I just have no words. Thank you for the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I know... I'm just astounded. My gut dropped. I cannot believe the explosive intensity, and how it is continuing to strengthen. I really hoped the EWRC was going to stave off some of this. I just have no words. Thank you for the information. sadly the surge is already past the point of no return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 sadly the surge is already past the point of no return. I can only hope the Indian government has learned from the past (ie 1999) and can efficiently and effectively keep the citizens safe. I fear this not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I can only hope the Indian government has learned from the past (ie 1999) and can efficiently and effectively keep the citizens safe. I fear this not the case. Despite the idiocy from the head of the IMD cyclone division upthread (I wonder if they are deliberately keeping the current and forecast intensities down to avoid embarassing him by making it a "super-cyclone") from perusing the Indian media, it appears that the local governments in the Indian states that are going to be hit have been pursuing full-scale evacuations for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Haven't been tracking cyclones in the BOB for that long, but this is by far the most impressive system I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The last track map I took and plotted onto Google Earth so everyone can see where this Cyclone is heading. Looks like the city of Brahmapur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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