Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Latest JTWC advisory has this at 135kt, strengthening to 145kt before landfall. Very favorable environment. Like you mentioned, only an ERC will stop it (at the cost of an expanded wind field, of course).They mention is undergoing one now so that will be complete with max strength at LF it appears, damn. Ground zero ,2 million people at 16 feet elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 They mention is undergoing one now so that will be complete with max strength at LF it appears, damn. Ground zero ,2 million people at 16 feet elevation. Plus the storm is massive, the surge is going to be seriously impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Although I am as fascinated with tropical cyclones as any other person, this is one instance where I am not excited about a land falling TC. This storm will likely take many lives and that's not something I can be excited about. A very sad and very serious situation developing there! That aside, it is a breathtakingly beautiful storm to look at, on the visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 This is going to cause some serious problems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That eye and core are tiny! Looks like an attempt at a moat in the northern semi-circle, so I'd guess this will attempt to undergo an ERC at some point before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 And then there was this idiot on some Indian news site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 And then there was this idiot on some Indian news site... ScreenHunter_54 Oct. 10 17.46.png Yeah I saw that earlier, whoever wrote that needs a swift smack on the head, potentially going to lead to needless casualties. Plus they aren't taking into account the size of the storm with regards to the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Not sure if I should celebrate or be worried that Phailin is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle right now. It's going to increase in size, widening its impact and increasing its surge. But it might not be as strong. Moot point either way -- East India is going to be nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yep there is a nice moat developing within the inner core... its probably reached its peak intensity, although given the wealth of convection surrounding Phalin the wind field will likely continue to expand in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Even if this does go through an EWRC and the wind field expands further, the amount of ocean the intense spiral bands are taking up will definitely wind up contributing to the surge potential to a degree. It was however, very interesting to watch the eyewall intensify and contract on MIMIC to a critical point where it was obvious that an EWRC was likely. Very interesting cyclone so far. Just hope it doesn't cause devastation like past BOB cyclones. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Wow, nice symmetry to it! I would think a system wouldn't have that much open water and time to grow in that area of the Indian Ocean, but I guess there is good conditions there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 the Indian is ripe for strong cyclones over the North. West Pacific is obviously ripe. Even our own backyard has the potential energy lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 88.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NMSOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITEIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SLIGHTLY-CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC EYE AND SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDSSPIRALING OUT FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF PASTMICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z AND 110159Z SSMI/S IMAGE, SHOWTHE SYSTEM UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE NEWLYFORMED EYEWALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN CONSOLIDATING. THE INITIAL POSITIONIS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGHCONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAKCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSISINDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGEAXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANDEXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERNPERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL ANDMAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST BEFORE TAU 36.THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTSOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERLANDFALL, TC PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THERUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THEAVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGHCONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 54FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Time of issue: 1330 hours IST Dated: 11-10-2013Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/23 (Orange Message)Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over Central Bay of Bengal:Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal movednorthwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 11 th October 2013 over west central andadjoining Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.2 0 N and longitude 88.3 0 E, about 500 km south-southeastof Paradip, 490 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 500 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. Itwould move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast betweenKalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12 th October, 2013 as avery severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph.Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated trackand intensity of the system are given in the Table below:Date/Time(IST) Position(Lat. 0 N/ Long. 0 E)Sustained maximum surfacewind speed (kmph)Category11-10-2013/1130 16.2/88.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/1730 17.0/87.6 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/2330 17.6/86.7 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/0530 18.2/85.8 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/1130 18.7/85.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/2330 19.8/84.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/1130 20.8/84.0 90-100 gusting to 11 0 Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/2330 21.6/83.8 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression(A) Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal(i) Heavy Rainfall: Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to veryheavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastalOdisha commencing from 11 th October 2013 night. It would continue and extend to interiorOdisha from 12 th night. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would alsooccur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 11 th Oct. night. Isolated heavy tovery heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 12 th Oct.night.(ii) Gale wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail alongand off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensitythereafter with gale wind speed reaching 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of northcoastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and offOdisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough and will become graduallyphenomenal on 12 th October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coastduring the above period.(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of around 3.0 m above astronomical tidewould inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha andSrikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensivedamage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power andcommunication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat fromflying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.(v) Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and WestBengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. TotalPage 2suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail androad traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 just unbelievably powerful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Now this is an ERC that just bombed on recovery, holy heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 probably the worst time for a erc too. this thing is going to be deadly. us navy's joint typhoon warning center upped wind gusts to 315 kph at landfall. EDIT: pressure down to 918 mb. good god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Bookmark this radar http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 -90C tops in the southern eyewall, somehow this may get even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Phailin has been upgraded to a Super Cyclonic Storm with 140 knot winds per the JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 india's dept of meteorology is only predicting a storm surge of 3m (~9ft). This thing will bring surge double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Bookmark this radar http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ That's the one in the Philippines that Josh is chasing, I don't think India has an online accessible radar network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Just wow to this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That's the one in the Philippines that Josh is chasing, I don't think India has an online accessible radar network. It's the one under Nari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That's the one in the Philippines that Josh is chasing, I don't think India has an online accessible radar network. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/phailin13/Phailin_12Oct13_vsk.gif I believe this link should work for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Can I get the web address for that Bay of Bengal floater satellite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thanks, had to ctrl+f5, I had the old page cached. I wish I could find where he got that though so I could over lay it onto maps. Link for Wxman9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Amazing...such perfect ER. Usually ERCs mean a weaker storm afterwards, because you need perfect conditions to recover from it...this time it will mean a stronger and higher IKE storm. It has been tracking south of the projected tracks by models and IMD/JTWC...I think Srikakulam is in the crosshairs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Insanely heavy convection spiraling into the center. TXIO24 KNES 111453TCSNIOA. 02B (PHAILIN)B. 11/1430ZC. 16.8ND. 87.2EE. ONE/MET-7F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRSG. IR/EIRH. REMARKS...OW PINHOLE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMGWHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PTAND MET AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.I. ADDL POSITIONSNIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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