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North Indian Ocean Cyclone season 2013


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Latest JTWC advisory has this at 135kt, strengthening to 145kt before landfall. Very favorable environment. Like you mentioned, only an ERC will stop it (at the cost of an expanded wind field, of course).

They mention is undergoing one now so that will be complete with max strength at LF it appears, damn. Ground zero ,2 million people at 16 feet elevation. ee33e4baa07f886be8d19d42e18bd878.jpg
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Although I am as fascinated with tropical cyclones as any other person, this is one instance where I am not excited about a land falling TC. This storm will likely take many lives and that's not something I can be excited about. A very sad and very serious situation developing there!:(

That aside, it is a breathtakingly beautiful storm to look at, on the visible satellite.

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Even if this does go through an EWRC and the wind field expands further, the amount of ocean the intense spiral bands are taking up will definitely wind up contributing to the surge potential to a degree.

It was however, very interesting to watch the eyewall intensify and contract on MIMIC to a critical point where it was obvious that an EWRC was likely.

Very interesting cyclone so far. Just hope it doesn't cause devastation like past BOB cyclones.

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110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SLIGHTLY-
CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC EYE AND SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
SPIRALING OUT FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF PAST
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z AND 110159Z SSMI/S IMAGE, SHOW
THE SYSTEM UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE NEWLY
FORMED EYEWALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN CONSOLIDATING. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST BEFORE TAU 36.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER
LANDFALL, TC PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 54
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

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Time of issue: 1330 hours IST Dated: 11-10-2013

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/23 (Orange Message)

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over Central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal moved
northwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 11 th October 2013 over west central and
adjoining Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.2 0 N and longitude 88.3 0 E, about 500 km south-southeast
of Paradip, 490 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 500 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It
would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12 th October, 2013 as a
very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0 N/ Long. 0 E)

Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)

Category

11-10-2013/1130 16.2/88.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/1730 17.0/87.6 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/2330 17.6/86.7 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/0530 18.2/85.8 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1130 18.7/85.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330 19.8/84.3 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130 20.8/84.0 90-100 gusting to 11 0 Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/2330 21.6/83.8 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
(A) Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(i) Heavy Rainfall: Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very
heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastal
Odisha commencing from 11 th October 2013 night. It would continue and extend to interior
Odisha from 12 th night. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also
occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 11 th Oct. night. Isolated heavy to
very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 12 th Oct.
night.

(ii) Gale wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along
and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensity
thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of north
coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off
Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough and will become gradually
phenomenal on 12 th October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast
during the above period.

(iii) Storm Surge GuidanceStorm surge with height of around 3.0 m above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and

Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive

damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and

communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from

flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

(v) Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West

Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total

Page 2

suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and

road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.

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Amazing...such perfect ER. Usually ERCs mean a weaker storm afterwards, because you need perfect conditions to recover from it...this time it will mean a stronger and higher IKE storm.

 

It has been tracking south of the projected tracks by models and IMD/JTWC...I think Srikakulam is in the crosshairs here.

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Insanely heavy convection spiraling into the center. 

 

 

TXIO24 KNES 111453
TCSNIO
A. 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 16.8N
D. 87.2E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW PINHOLE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMG
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT
AND MET AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

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