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North Indian Ocean Cyclone season 2013


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I don't expect this thread to grow much, but it looks like a significant cyclone will affect the NE Indian coast.

 

N Indian Ocean cyclone season is divided in two, just past the equinoxes, when the monsoon effects tend to diminish, allowing for upper level shear to be more hospitable.

 

There's currently an Invest which has been forecasted by all reliable models to become quite a storm. Euro and GFS have continually modeled a 950's cyclone hitting India in around 4 days.

 

It's currently under moderate easterly shear (looks like our own African strong easterly waves)

 

avn0-lalo.jpg

 

As it progresses WNW, it will be under a more favorable upper air environment, so instead on being on the eastern edge of the anticyclone, it will be south of it, with lighter easterlies, and little net shear.

 

12z GFS is not too shabby

 

post-29-0-36846800-1381252008_thumb.png

post-29-0-91671800-1381252001_thumb.png

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Pretty much all of the intensity guidance for 90W  indicate that it has the potential to become a significant cyclone as it nears landfall in 96-108 hours. The lack of surface/ship obs observations if making it hard to gauge its current intensity, but it definitely appears to be at least a classifiable cyclone. 

 

 

 

 

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943mb on the 12z GFS at or near landfall...still trending stronger...this is the lowest I have seen the GFS on any storm. Satellite presentation has improved, and MW already shows a budding eyewall (and the latest MW is several hours old).

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Phailin is looking awesome this evening. Microwave imagery shows a very tight and well-developed core underneath the CDO. This could be one hell of a cyclone when it makes landfall if it stays together over the relatively high OHC. 

 

The 18z HWRF brings it up to around 120 knots before landfall so it definitely has devastating potential: 

 

 

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Over/Under on 120 knots? I'm taking the over!

JTWC peaks it at landfall at 95kts...latest forecast has it as a 65kts cyclone :D...if any it looks like a mid/high end cat 3 right now. Convection is very symmetrical, with very cold cloud tops encircling the eye...the eye could be a little warmer/clearer...when that happens, we'll be looking at a solid cat 4. It looks like a compact cyclone, with a rather small RMW because of the small eye/CDO, which a partial ASCAT seems to confirm. Only negative I can forsee is ERCs.

 

I told Josh yesterday that it would landfall at around 125kts...I'm going with that, though it could peak at a little stronger than that.

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Not that intensity underforecasts are new for JTWC, or that RI doesn't cause intensity forecast errors for every agency but given what it looked like on satellite at even 0800Z, this is one of the most remarkable short term intensity forecast fails I've ever seen; the 0900 advisory in terms of intensity almost seems like a going-through-the-motions , though they note the multitude of favorable factors in the advisory text for strengthening.

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Trying to access IMD web site, see what the local statements look like.

 

Slow web site...

 

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST Dated: 10-10-2013

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/17 (Orange Message)

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over East central Bay of Bengal:

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today the 10thOctober 2013 near latitude 15.50N and longitude 90.00E, about 650km southeast of Paradip, 700km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12thOctober, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.

 

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ Long. 0E)

Sustained maximum surface

wind speed (kmph)

Category

10-10-2013/1730

15.5/90.0

135-145 gusting to 160

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

10-10-2013/2330

15.8/89.0

145-155 gusting to 170

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

11-10-2013/0530

16.2/88.2

155-165 gusting to 180

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

11-10-2013/1130

16.6/87.5

165-175 gusting to 190

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

11-10-2013/1730

17.0/86.9

175-185 gusting to 200

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

12-10-2013/0530

17.9/85.8

175-185 gusting to 200

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

12-10-2013/1730

19.2/85.0

175-185 gusting to 200

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

13-10-2013/0530

20.2/84.5

80-90 gusting to 100

Cyclonic Storm

13-10-2013/1730

21.2/84.2

50-60 gusting to 70

Deep Depression

14-10-2013/0530

22.2/83.8

40-50 gusting to 60

Depression

 

 

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Still looks to be bombing out. The intensity of Pailin is probably close to 145 knots now...

 

Should be interesting to see if the JTWC actually brings this up to 135 knots at their next advisory for the initial intensity. 

2013OCT10 143000  6.9  925.7 137.4  6.9 7.3 7.5  3.2T/18hr OFF  OFF   -0.16 -80.86  EYE     14 IR  N/A    15.52  -89.90  COMBO    MET7 41.7 
2013OCT10 150000  6.9  925.7 137.4  6.9 7.0 7.3  3.7T/24hr OFF  OFF   -7.26 -80.79  EYE     14 IR  N/A    15.55  -89.84  COMBO    MET7 41.7 
2013OCT10 153000  7.0  923.2 140.0  7.0 7.1 7.3  3.7T/24hr OFF  OFF  -11.36 -80.59  EYE     14 IR  N/A    15.58  -89.79  COMBO    MET7 41.6 
2013OCT10 160000  7.1  920.4 143.0  7.1 7.1 7.5  3.7T/24hr OFF  OFF    1.64 -80.49  EYE     17 IR  N/A    15.60  -89.64  COMBO    MET7 41.5 
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