wxmx Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I don't expect this thread to grow much, but it looks like a significant cyclone will affect the NE Indian coast. N Indian Ocean cyclone season is divided in two, just past the equinoxes, when the monsoon effects tend to diminish, allowing for upper level shear to be more hospitable. There's currently an Invest which has been forecasted by all reliable models to become quite a storm. Euro and GFS have continually modeled a 950's cyclone hitting India in around 4 days. It's currently under moderate easterly shear (looks like our own African strong easterly waves) As it progresses WNW, it will be under a more favorable upper air environment, so instead on being on the eastern edge of the anticyclone, it will be south of it, with lighter easterlies, and little net shear. 12z GFS is not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Glad someone started this thread -- as modeled this looks to be a major impact for NE India. Track reminds me of the 1999 Orissa cyclone which killed ~15,000 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Pretty much all of the intensity guidance for 90W indicate that it has the potential to become a significant cyclone as it nears landfall in 96-108 hours. The lack of surface/ship obs observations if making it hard to gauge its current intensity, but it definitely appears to be at least a classifiable cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 948mb shortly before landfall on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 943mb on the 12z GFS at or near landfall...still trending stronger...this is the lowest I have seen the GFS on any storm. Satellite presentation has improved, and MW already shows a budding eyewall (and the latest MW is several hours old). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Phailin would be a good name for an atlantic storm this year LOL. Forecast calls for 90kts at landfall 12z on the 12th. 65 kts currently. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Phailin would be a good name for an atlantic storm this year LOL. Forecast calls for 90kts at landfall 12z on the 12th. 65 kts currently. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well, Phailin is not failin', and some more robust strengthening is ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Eye showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Phailin is looking awesome this evening. Microwave imagery shows a very tight and well-developed core underneath the CDO. This could be one hell of a cyclone when it makes landfall if it stays together over the relatively high OHC. The 18z HWRF brings it up to around 120 knots before landfall so it definitely has devastating potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Over/Under on 120 knots? I'm taking the over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Over/Under on 120 knots? I'm taking the over! JTWC peaks it at landfall at 95kts...latest forecast has it as a 65kts cyclone ...if any it looks like a mid/high end cat 3 right now. Convection is very symmetrical, with very cold cloud tops encircling the eye...the eye could be a little warmer/clearer...when that happens, we'll be looking at a solid cat 4. It looks like a compact cyclone, with a rather small RMW because of the small eye/CDO, which a partial ASCAT seems to confirm. Only negative I can forsee is ERCs. I told Josh yesterday that it would landfall at around 125kts...I'm going with that, though it could peak at a little stronger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Just woke up and it looks like I missed some action overnight. 948mb 112.5kts now according to the adt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Over/Under on 120 knots? I'm taking the over! Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 RI still...<-80C cloud tops now completely encircling the warming eye. This is probably at or very near cat 4 status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'll take sub-930 and >125 kts for 500 alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Not that intensity underforecasts are new for JTWC, or that RI doesn't cause intensity forecast errors for every agency but given what it looked like on satellite at even 0800Z, this is one of the most remarkable short term intensity forecast fails I've ever seen; the 0900 advisory in terms of intensity almost seems like a going-through-the-motions , though they note the multitude of favorable factors in the advisory text for strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 JTWC with initial intensity to 100 kts now, peaks at 135 kts. They have it dropping to 110 kts right before landfall (while still over water) without explanation, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Looking really good - and symmetric too! I would say this one has cat 5 potential if that eye can fully clear out and warm a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Eric Blake of the NHC is saying it is a Cat 5 now. Looks crazy hawt. It may weaken a little before landfall, but no matter-- it's going to come ashore very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Looks like we have a Super Cyclonic Storm.... 2013OCT10 153000 7.0 923.2 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Trying to access IMD web site, see what the local statements look like. Slow web site... Time of issue: 1930 hours IST Dated: 10-10-2013 Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/17 (Orange Message) Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over East central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast. The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today the 10thOctober 2013 near latitude 15.50N and longitude 90.00E, about 650km southeast of Paradip, 700km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12thOctober, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph. Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0N/ Long. 0E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) Category 10-10-2013/1730 15.5/90.0 135-145 gusting to 160 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 10-10-2013/2330 15.8/89.0 145-155 gusting to 170 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 11-10-2013/0530 16.2/88.2 155-165 gusting to 180 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 11-10-2013/1130 16.6/87.5 165-175 gusting to 190 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 11-10-2013/1730 17.0/86.9 175-185 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 12-10-2013/0530 17.9/85.8 175-185 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 12-10-2013/1730 19.2/85.0 175-185 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 13-10-2013/0530 20.2/84.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm 13-10-2013/1730 21.2/84.2 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression 14-10-2013/0530 22.2/83.8 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 The crazy thing is that the SST's and OHC is like what it is currently all the way up to the coast. Temps near the coast are near 32°C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Still looks to be bombing out. The intensity of Pailin is probably close to 145 knots now... Should be interesting to see if the JTWC actually brings this up to 135 knots at their next advisory for the initial intensity. 2013OCT10 143000 6.9 925.7 137.4 6.9 7.3 7.5 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF -0.16 -80.86 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.52 -89.90 COMBO MET7 41.7 2013OCT10 150000 6.9 925.7 137.4 6.9 7.0 7.3 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF -7.26 -80.79 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.55 -89.84 COMBO MET7 41.7 2013OCT10 153000 7.0 923.2 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF -11.36 -80.59 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.58 -89.79 COMBO MET7 41.6 2013OCT10 160000 7.1 920.4 143.0 7.1 7.1 7.5 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF 1.64 -80.49 EYE 17 IR N/A 15.60 -89.64 COMBO MET7 41.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Complete cyan ring around the eye. This is definitely one of the more impressive Indian cyclones I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Path ahead...cleared. ERC is the only thing that can stop this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Latest JTWC advisory has this at 135kt, strengthening to 145kt before landfall. Very favorable environment. Like you mentioned, only an ERC will stop it (at the cost of an expanded wind field, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 T numbers down a bit from there earlier peak. There maybe dry air or shear effecting the NE side. The core and the eye still appear intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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