mikeeng92 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From Wakefield's Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think we'll be fine here. Upper level features look good. We get some nice RH numbers later in the day. You always have some wobble room with these things. Sure, there exists the possibility that the low tracks further to the north, but then you also have the possibility for the opposite. Seasonal trends are telling. We've done well with our QPF performance all winter long. A few knowledgable mets have stated that the dry slot shouldn't be of much concern. Even AKQ is painting us in the 4-6 stripe. I was going conservative with 2-4" metro-wide, but I may have to bump that up depending on what the 00z suite shows. Good luck to the folks down in HR land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still nothing from Wakefield. It's sad that this area is always the toss up when it comes to winter weather. I really don't think you have much to worry about. Speaking for myself, I've regarded southside and HR a likely advisory area and the WWA is a primarily first/early second period product. I know there is (always) frustration around here with how we handle our winter wx program but it's done for a reason. Put simply...there's no reason for a headline right now. The HWO reflects the threat. The forecast speaks for itself. Relax and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks like the GFS is not picking up on the banding potential down here in HR. I am going to go and hug the NAM now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And there it is!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA602 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014VAZ095>098-210715-/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.140121T2100Z-140122T0500Z/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-602 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING.* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.* HAZARDS: SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.* WINDS: NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TOAROUND 35 TO 40 MPH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY TO FREEZING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON...THEN BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY EVENING.* TIMING: RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW IN THELATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. THE SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE HEAVYAT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSEHAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHE EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psumet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was hoping for at least a little clustering on the SREFs by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nam gives Hampton Roads more Snow than Richmond Metro area. :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yup. Super band holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Superband for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Superband for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM Snowfall.png Bah!!! :-p We'll see if the precip is really that far north.. and if that Enhancement in NE NC/Extreme SE VA happens. ^^; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Bah!!! :-p We'll see if the precip is really that far north.. and if that Enhancement in NE NC/Extreme SE VA happens. ^^; I know I know I'm not necessarily buying it either but it would be nice RPM is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is a bit more generous up this way... and broader with the southern edge of the precipitation field. Some indications of that band setting up for the south eastern sections as well. It is just not as formed as the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is a bit more generous up this way... and broader with the southern edge of the precipitation field. Some indications of that band setting up for the south eastern sections as well. It is just not as formed as the nam. GFS looks to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS looks to hold That it did. Might get my 3 inches at the airport... just maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That it did. Might get my 3 inches at the airport... just maybe..gfs brings it in by 15 z nam was 18z the earlier the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Certainly a few things to think about as we all head off for bed here. The NAM and Canadian models seem to have shifted much of the "decent" precip away from RIC. The GFS and SREFS held serve which is encouraging. AKQ has some concern about a "soft spot" around or SW of the city which is warranted given what a few of the models have been showing. I can now see why they held off on hoisting the WSW or WWA for the area. As Huff pointed out in the event thread, the timing differences between the GFS and NAM are still significant for this stage. The latter gets going later which I believe leads to a more strung out POS from the start. Time will tell who wins this battle. I'll take the GFS qpf text output of ~.4 and run with it. Puts us in range for a nice 3-5" event, although there are still a few concerns. I'll be sticking with my 2-4" call because I value my public image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the Hampton Roads is under a Winter Storm Warning. I'm expecting 3-5 here on the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ft-animated.gif You can clearly see that this will be a two part system.. I don't expect to get much of anything in the Richmond area until after 2pm.. The fist batch we might mostly miss to the north. Or be drysloted if you want to call it that.. The Main system has yet to get getting behind this first batch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 AKQ seems to have a reasonable forecast. But this is all going to hinge on back end moisture pivoting through as the low races away NE, high bust potential yet all the models have been hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I like 18hr RUC - shows moderate snow late night tonight in HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Radar looks good in southwest VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looking at nam and hires. Not excited at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Band now looks like it will stay south. Can't say I'm surprised as I've seen this happen before. Next run will tell us if it's a trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 See what gfs puts out and then last hope at 18z. But it is possible that we are right between the good stuff. North and south. Bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 See what gfs puts out and then last hope at 18z. But it is possible that we are right between the good stuff. North and south. Bust? Very possible.. 1-2 still looks good but was expecting more until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We're hours out now---I wouldn't worry too much about models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That 12z NAM was painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We're hours out now---I wouldn't worry too much about models at this point. sure. Maybe not in our case. We need to see where this band sets up and if latest guidance is painting a different picture. Can't just ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 looked to me like VB was still in the band for 12z NAM....Peninsula was getting the shaft though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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