eaglesin2011 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep when changeover happens is going to be the key... def could bust either way for sure in this area.. Amazing how much the models are predicting with what the temps will be tommrow... temps are 46 degrees here right now.. I would have to guess some places will get thundersnow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 AKQ going 3-4 inches for HR... Think it'll happen near Williamsburg, but seems high on southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even if we don't get more than a dusting, it is going to be wild seeing the temperature drop from 67 today down to the mid 20s by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z NAM gets the cold air in a bit faster. This is going to be a good run for HR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 heaviest precip still doesn't make it down into HR. Maybe .5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 heaviest precip still doesn't make it down into HR. Maybe .5"? Yes I was just about to post that. If u look at sim radar from HR30 on it kind of dries up the precip as it approaches then reforms a bit just south. Hopefully just splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Weeping and gnashing of teeth in the main thread because the 12Z NAM is south again. I feel so sorry for them, and it's not likely that the NAM scores a big victory anyway. Yeah, it would just be awful if RIC finally got a big snow. After all, the DMV hasn't had any big snows in the past four years...smh. And HR hasn't had any big snows either, given its climo right...smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Less QPF this run. Need to see soundings to know if it is more snow. 0z was a sleet fest for ORF. And the nam has 0c line hovering over HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12Z Nam definitely decreases precip for HR....looks like .3" sleet, .05" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS again with heavier precip for HR than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not too sure what Wakefield is looking at putting southside HR into the 2-4" band. Maybe they were anticipating the southward drift on the models would continue or there would be more QPF after we get cold enough for all snow but that's not showing up . I've doubted them before, usually to my detriment but I think we'll see the totals trimmed back later today. Still quite an event for so late in the season and less than 24 hours after 60s. Rush hour tomorrow could be epically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not too sure what Wakefield is looking at putting southside HR into the 2-4" band. Maybe they were anticipating the southward drift on the models would continue or there would be more QPF after we get cold enough for all snow but that's not showing up . I've doubted them before, usually to my detriment but I think we'll see the totals trimmed back later today. Still quite an event for so late in the season and less than 24 hours after 60s. Rush hour tomorrow could be epically bad. On thier QPF maps, they are expecting greater than .50 from the NC border north. If that verifies, only half (i believe) would need to be in snow to get around 3 inches with a 12-1 ratio. GFS does have norfolk around .7 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 WAVY is calling for sleet and ice for the morning rush hour. Could be chaos is schools are open then decide to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS has .6" total precip at KORF .02" Frz rn, .25" sleet, and 3.5" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like a glorious mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm outside grilling porkchops in shorts and a tshirt while under a winter storm warning. It does not get much better than this folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm outside grilling porkchops in shorts and a tshirt while under a winter storm warning. It does not get much better than this folks. This whole Winter has been bizarre . I had some guys from Chicago that came here to work and they were so freaked out by how our weather can go from one extreme to another so quickly. Norfolk, Tidewater area, is the area of all, any kind, of weather any time,Land. Be ready for shock city here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://blogs.wavy.com/an-update-for-mondays-snow/ Worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow, can't believe Wavy is upping their numbers... Their in house model must be showing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Norfolk Public Schools closing 2 hours early tomorrow. That could be trouble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Damn, WAVY is going pretty big for us. I am really skeptical of snow accumulating on surfaces that were in the 70s today under full sun. In any case, moderate to heavy snow falling 24hrs after 70degree highs is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 0z NAM colder and wetter. Afternoon rush will be a disaster tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Damn, WAVY is going pretty big for us. I am really skeptical of snow accumulating on surfaces that were in the 70s today under full sun. In any case, moderate to heavy snow falling 24hrs after 70degree highs is pretty amazing. True, but the surface wasn't exactly baking in that heat for days. It was 35 degrees this morning at the soccer field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Soil temps are around 45 deg. Of course there will be melting till the surfaces cool but with the tsunami wave of cold air coming down we should be good monday evening. Clown maps have been showing around 2" today for south side. Wavy's call is best case scenario imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 None of the schools know what to do. Norfolk bailing 2 hours early certainly doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 None of the schools know what to do. Norfolk bailing 2 hours early certainly doesn't help. They're waiting to see the euro to make a final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well the temp dropped a lot quicker than I thought. Oceana currently at 43 after being 70 about 5 hours ago. NW wind kicking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 3 to 6 range in the Richmond area seems like a good bet.. more if we get lucky less if we get the old dry slot that seems to love this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looking at the radar it really looks like this area is going to be in a good spot.. Heavy precip is just to the West..Now just need the temps to drop.. I think most of the heavy precip is going to b from Fredericksburg area south..Chester isn't even getting any precip at the moment but could go right into heavy rain/snow. The heavy precip cutoff is really going to be sharp just north and south of this area imo.. Prob over by rush hour in Ric unless the ULL redevelops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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