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SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

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31/30

ZR

4.8"

 

I had IP for a while but switched over to ZR with this newest batch of precip. The RAP has the dry slot moving in during the 7-8 AM timeframe. Until then, qpf maps show upwards of .75" for the metro. Assuming we don't go over freezing, which is a possibility for the western areas, things could get messy quick.

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I am just down the road from JMU, he is closer Rt.6 and I am closer to 250 but my last measurement before going to bed was 5".  I think I had a few drifts in the backyard that looked about 6" or 7".  When I woke up  this morning it was compressed to under 3.5"

 

This stuff will break your back.  Taking a break from shoveling. 

 

DC hits the jackpot again but in one week they will be bitching and moaning.  I thought we really would push double digits with this one.  I guess we need true overrunning events to pull that trick down here.

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I am just down the road from JMU, he is closer Rt.6 and I am closer to 250 but my last measurement before going to bed was 5".  I think I had a few drifts in the backyard that looked about 6" or 7".  When I woke up  this morning it was compressed to under 3.5"

 

This stuff will break your back.  Taking a break from shoveling. 

 

DC hits the jackpot again but in one week they will be bitching and moaning.  I thought we really would push double digits with this one.  I guess we need true overrunning events to pull that trick down here.

I really think that Jan 30, 2010 is kind of the ideal event for us. No, it wasn't a top 5 storm, but we got 10-14" of pure powder from a low that ran off the coast to our south. Between dry slots and p-type issues, it will always be tough for us to win in coastals. The reality is that even though we are so close to DC, they pretty much have to get screwed for us to win. It's almost impossible to have a storm that jackpots the entire Commonwealth.

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Love that Jan. 30 2010 event.  That whole winter rocked.

 

Yep,I don't post much in those threads because if you are not part of the inner circle you are either ignored or mocked by some, not all.  There are some awesome people up there that are great contributors and polite.

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They have already started dropping, I'm back into the 30's now.  Was 48 earlier

 

Wow!  48?  That's the highest report I've heard.  Are you on the coast?  I can't see your location.  I've been hanging around 33 - 34 most of the morning.  Has gone up to 36 the last hour and a half.  I'm hoping that's as high as it goes.  Im in CVa.

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I didn't end up having any meaningful accumulation after my 4.8" report so that is what my total will be until the back end swings through.

 

I can't say that I'm not disappointed, although if I end up with over 6" I'll consider this a success. The reality here though is that the airport itself has not *officially* recorded an event >11" since 1983 and that streak will continue for the time being. As Fodie alluded to our ideal setup seems to be lows scooting through the south that track off the NC coast and go OTS, preferably tapping gulf moisture along the way. 1940 was such an event and that is #1 all-time. 

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I really think that Jan 30, 2010 is kind of the ideal event for us. No, it wasn't a top 5 storm, but we got 10-14" of pure powder from a low that ran off the coast to our south. Between dry slots and p-type issues, it will always be tough for us to win in coastals. The reality is that even though we are so close to DC, they pretty much have to get screwed for us to win. It's almost impossible to have a storm that jackpots the entire Commonwealth.

 

This sounds spot on.  It seems it's fair to say that if the models show a good hit for both RVA and DC, RVA gets the shaft.  It just seems the norm.  I will have a hard time believing any future models that show this type of set-up.

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I didn't end up having any meaningful accumulation after my 4.8" report so that is what my total will be until the back end swings through.

 

I can't say that I'm not disappointed, although if I end up with over 6" I'll consider this a success. The reality here though is that the airport itself has not *officially* recorded an event >11" since 1983 and that streak will continue for the time being. As Fodie alluded to our ideal setup seems to be lows scooting through the south that track off the NC coast and go OTS, preferably tapping gulf moisture along the way. 1940 was such an event and that is #1 all-time. 

 

It really is amazing...30 years since an "official" 11 inch storm. I dare say that every other non-coastal city from GA to Maine has probably recorded a 11+ event since that time. Many of the coastal cities have as well.

 

Simply amazing. We all say "we're due", but we have been due for 25 years. At some point, you just start to think it won't happen.

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