MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow... It may have a chance to be a top 10 storm ever for the RIC!.. . Anything over 12.6 puts it into the top 10 I believe... Correct...12.7" is the target to put a storm in sole possession of 10th all-time. I think this storm has an outside shot but I'd bet against it. Longitude hurts RIC along with the fact that we don't have the cold/blocking that'd come along with proper teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haha... Yeah, I wouldn't bet on it. living in this area we have seen plenty of disappointments .. I actually live in the West End/ Short Pump area. 30 miles is going to be a big difference most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HPC is going with a blend of the 00z Euro/GFS wrt low track and taking the strength of the Euro nearly verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwxfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z euro destroys va 12-18 ric west Thanks, could not tell about Richmond from the main thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks, could not tell about Richmond from the main thread!lol most times you can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Axis of heaviest snow should be a bit too far west to get Richmond officially into a top 10 storm... And sleet on the east end could really cut the totals down compared to west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol most times you can't It's tough to share a board with DC/Balt metro areas. There are about 20 main posters from up there who completely make it an IMBY board. Unreadable mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think this is going to go a little more south then most think .. Sleet most likely will cut down totals but again a few miles can really make a difference..def will be fun to watch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think this is going to go a little more south then most think .. Sleet most likely will cut down totals but again a few miles can really make a difference..def will be fun to watch..... Keep your eye on the WPC forecast low track map as we get closer to the event: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think many in central VA will be very pleased with this NAM run. We are about 36 hours out now as well. Time to start paying some attention to the meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is 1.5+ QPF for RIC. Tough to tell a R/S line, but if your in Short Pump west, you look all snow. I would use the old 95 R/S line with totals going up every 5 miles or so. The NAM is in range at this point as well. We have to remember to give it credit, b/c it has nam'd us for 5 straight runs now. Amazingly consistent for a wildly inconsistent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WOW is all I have to say. NAM clown maps paste the metro with 18"+ all around. I was able to view the county maps and the 850 0c line seemingly never moves west of the Henrico/Charles City divide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WOW is all I have to say. NAM clown maps paste the metro with 18"+ all around. I was able to view the county maps and the 850 0c line seemingly never moves west of the Henrico/Charles City divide. That would be wonderful regarding 850's. Have to think a warm nose will pop up (as per usual), but I like that we have some breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would be wonderful regarding 850's. Have to think a warm nose will pop up (as per usual), but I like that we have some breathing room. Pocket at 900/950 sneaks in there but according to a met it never really gets W or N of the city verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 just looked at the nam sounding and it's 100% snow for ric airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SE VA and eastern shore look to be in the worst spots if you like winter weather. Snow everywhere else. South, west and north. Snowing in Cape hatteras now. But Glad to see people cashing in that haven't lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SE VA and eastern shore look to be in the worst spots if you like winter weather. Snow everywhere else. South, west and north. Snowing in Cape hatteras now. But Glad to see people cashing in that haven't lately. Welcome to RIC of the last 3 winters. Besides, that's your trade-off for awesome living 8 months of the year. Beach, fishing, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Welcome to RIC of the last 3 winters. Besides, that's your trade-off for awesome living 8 months of the year. Beach, fishing, etc... Ha! Now I know how you felt during our last two events. Trade offs for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No complaining from SE VA folks. We've had our share this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, even though Tidewater won't get in on the snow, it is still an impressive storm to track for that area. Not to mention, I would love to be near the water during severe WX season...and hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol...you knew it was coming. RGEM and GFS hinting at significant mix/rain along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WPC still likes a modified Euro track...I'll be riding on their bus. ...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILESSOUTH/EAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, buy me a ticket too. Big run coming up in less than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any ideas what 12Z looks like for CVA in terms of qpf? Saw 1.25" area-wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
va_ghost Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any ideas what 12Z looks like for CVA in terms of qpf? Saw 1.25" area-wide? Also regarding temps? I asked in the mid-atlantic storm thread but apparently we are only allowed to discuss DC there and they were moaning over warm air for DC but nothing points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also regarding temps? I asked in the mid-atlantic storm thread but apparently we are only allowed to discuss DC there and they were moaning over warm air for DC but nothing points south. Dude...gotta stop asking IMBY questions, That's frowned upon on these boards (funny, because that's all anyone cares about, really). Cut 00z Euro numbers by 25% for RIC. Also have to worry about a massive dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
va_ghost Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dude...gotta stop asking IMBY questions, That's frowned upon on these boards (funny, because that's all anyone cares about, really). Cut 00z Euro numbers by 25% for RIC. Also have to worry about a massive dry slot. I understand what you are saying but when I asked for maps showing just a bit south the post was deleted, then I asked about what they were saying regarding things south of that and nothing except, now, IMBY. How can I ask what they are saying for their area affects another area? examples: "Euro sounding for Westminster keeps 850 temp below freezing, closest is gets is at 18z with -0.8.. works for me" Mapgirl's maps which stop near Fredericksburg. "It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...d" "Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous. Still snow overnight though!" " Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. " <DC> "Plus, a word of caution regarding trends when the onset of the event is STILL 30+ hours away.... Yeah these westward, warmer trends could continue, but I think we've seen from experience there's at least an equal chance the trend stops or goes the other way." Where maps are given or locations named they are DC area, otherwise it is pronouns.. Just trying to decipher what they were saying about westward trends and dryslots meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I understand what you are saying but when I asked for maps showing just a bit south the post was deleted, then I asked about what they were saying regarding things south of that and nothing except, now, IMBY. How can I ask what they are saying for their area affects another area? examples: "Euro sounding for Westminster keeps 850 temp below freezing, closest is gets is at 18z with -0.8.. works for me" Mapgirl's maps which stop near Fredericksburg. "It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...d" "Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous. Still snow overnight though!" " Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. " <DC> "Plus, a word of caution regarding trends when the onset of the event is STILL 30+ hours away.... Yeah these westward, warmer trends could continue, but I think we've seen from experience there's at least an equal chance the trend stops or goes the other way." Where maps are given or locations named they are DC area, otherwise it is pronouns.. Just trying to decipher what they were saying about westward trends and dryslots meant. I get it. The mods delete any IMBY post if it doesn't fit their back yard. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I understand what you are saying but when I asked for maps showing just a bit south the post was deleted, then I asked about what they were saying regarding things south of that and nothing except, now, IMBY. How can I ask what they are saying for their area affects another area? examples: "Euro sounding for Westminster keeps 850 temp below freezing, closest is gets is at 18z with -0.8.. works for me" Mapgirl's maps which stop near Fredericksburg. "It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...d" "Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous. Still snow overnight though!" " Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. " <DC> "Plus, a word of caution regarding trends when the onset of the event is STILL 30+ hours away.... Yeah these westward, warmer trends could continue, but I think we've seen from experience there's at least an equal chance the trend stops or goes the other way." Where maps are given or locations named they are DC area, otherwise it is pronouns.. Just trying to decipher what they were saying about westward trends and dryslots meant. Just stick in this thread. If you have any questions we'll try to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is rolling. Overall, I think I might have gotten my hopes up a little too much here. A 12"+ event was never really supported by climo. The indices are all wrong for a substantial central VA snowstorm. The sliding high puts us in a rough spot. We'll see what happens. If I end up with over 6" I'll probably be pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.