RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RIC should be cautious until snow is on the ground and the storm passed. Miller A's haven't been kind to us recently. You can never go wrong if you go 2-4" for a Richmond snowstorm. But, that is almost like saying it'll be 92 on 7/4. When looking at the climate period of record, an official 4" snowstorm occurs on average about once a year. And even the last 10-20 years, storms in the 3-4" range have occurred with such regularity that it's not unreasonable for a Richmonder to believe that. However, you're taking a big risk if you go more than 5.0". And then, anything over 7 or 8", is in my opinion, extremely risky and is not likely to happen given the frequency of such events since 1990. Plus, I would be inclined to perhaps take more risks with overrunning events such as 1/30/10. Coastal storms worry me b/c of the higher chance of precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0Z Euro is now way too close for comfort. Cutoff line basically goes right through downtown RIC. Literally a 4 inch difference between west and east Henrico. There are basically three sets of solutions at this point. Euro/NAM: Amped up, further west, drops loads of QPF but definite p-type issues GFS: Complete opposite, progressive track, 3-6 inches but no p-type issues GGEM: Dream scenario, central VA jackpot of 12-18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty sure we are out of the game on this one. Hopefully you guys in RIC can finally get a big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0Z Euro is now way too close for comfort. Cutoff line basically goes right through downtown RIC. Literally a 4 inch difference between west and east Henrico. There are basically three sets of solutions at this point. Euro/NAM: Amped up, further west, drops loads of QPF but definite p-type issues GFS: Complete opposite, progressive track, 3-6 inches but no p-type issues GGEM: Dream scenario, central VA jackpot of 12-18 inches EURO has been steadfast. GFS playing catchup, and CGEM splits the middle. I think you follow the Euro until short range models come in range, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty sure we are out of the game on this one. Hopefully you guys in RIC can finally get a big snow. DT's first guess has us in the 2-4" then rain area. Just doesn't look like the storm is sliding far enough east for the big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first guess has us in the 2-4" then rain area. Just doesn't look like the storm is sliding far enough east for the big hit. I'm waiting until 00Z tonight to formally throw in the white towel. 50-100 miles E and we will be in something half decent. We've seen that type of movement this late before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like rain rain rain for Hampton Roads, bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TYFNGUY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So I guess there's not one model left that takes this Low to the east and gives us a shred of hope in se Va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Radar looks decent to the north of HR. Heard a report of snow showers near Richmond. Anybody think we can squeeze out a dusting down here this evening? Its probably our only shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Best hope is for the low to shift east from current guidance. If it does then we will have a better chance at some back side snow. That deform band looks awesome on the latest nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z NAM wipes RIC off the map, but we've seen that story unfold before. It goes without saying that the 12Z Euro run is of epic importance. We really need to see a shift towards the GFS/CMC solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Always in the bullseye at this time frame, how many times have we seen it? I would once, just once, like to see it hold so DC crew could stop saying, exactly where we want it, RIC gets buried...yada, yada, yada. So next time, they would remember the exception of 2/13/14. Pulling hard for the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Always in the bullseye at this time frame, how many times have we seen it? I would once, just once, like to see it hold so DC crew could stop saying, exactly where we want it, RIC gets buried...yada, yada, yada. So next time, they would remember the exception of 2/13/14. Pulling hard for the NAM! Been here a ton in 2009 and 2010. Just once, I would love that crew to get stuffed while we score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, we need that one big win. I am trying to stay positive but I keep remembering like Valentine's Day Weekend storm of 2003. What did we end up with? Two inches of snow covered with 4" of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, we need that one big win. I am trying to stay positive but I keep remembering like Valentine's Day Weekend storm of 2003. What did we end up with? Two inches of snow covered with 4" of sleet? I was in Harrisonburg for that storm, so it was a monster for me. But yeah, RIC got the dreaded pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Radar looks decent to the north of HR. Heard a report of snow showers near Richmond. Anybody think we can squeeze out a dusting down here this evening? Its probably our only shot.\ Looks like echoes increasing along the VA/NC border west of HR. Hopefully we can get this consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HPC noon update says they prefer a blend of the 12z GFS/NAM. Obviously the Euro isn't out yet but they are liking the slightly east solution. And the NAM...holy jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Have a few flakes flying here in the Town Center area of Va Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm usually averse to asking MBY questions, but since this isn't the main storm thread: Does anyone know how the 12Z Euro looks for CHO and surrounding environs? Coverage in storm thread is, as expected, a bit NOVA/DCA-centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm usually averse to asking MBY questions, but since this isn't the main storm thread: Does anyone know how the 12Z Euro looks for CHO and surrounding environs? Coverage in storm thread is, as expected, a bit NOVA/DCA-centric. CHO is about 14-16", 8-10" by the time you get to RIC Shenandoah Valley is 18"+, with higher amounts as you go north on 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even though Euro is the outlier of the globals, I still think you have to lean towards it given climo and consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the 12Z runs didn't do much to clarify things for RIC and the surrounding areas: EURO: Still way amped up, snow to rain with 8-10" (would probably be more like 4-8" to be honest) GGEM: Moved against us today, no longer a RIC jackpot, but still gives us 10-12" GFS: Probably the most realistic one to root for, most supressed solution, gives us 10-12" with minimal p-type risks NAM: Dream scenario, RIC destroyed with 20"+ It's really setting up to be an "Americans vs. Europeans" type of deal, which doesn't make me too comfortable given how locked-in the Euro has been on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TYFNGUY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I guess I can go ahead and raise the white flag on the middle peninsula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HPC is still dangling the string in front of RIC weenies... ...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS INALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLYALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURETHEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKSTO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AREPLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACKDIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THETIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVEBEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERYSTRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELCONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THESOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THENFARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENTUPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FASTZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THECANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST.THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTHNOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ANDTHE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THELOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY14/00Z.AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BEYET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Watches hoisted but not Central VA, looks like Sterling and Blacksburg coverage zones. Waiting on Wakefield to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This looks like it is going to turn into a DC only storm once we are done with NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This looks like it is going to turn into a DC only storm once we are done with NW trend. Lol..and why do you say that? 18z NAM drops 20+ inches on RIC... Expanding precip fields don't equal a NW trend. The run is nearly identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Latest disco from LWX: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOOKING LIKELY THAT A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THEREGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY DESPITE PHASING ANDTRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND NORTHERNSTREAM SHORT WAVE /CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE BRITISHCOLUMBIA COAST RESPECTIVELY PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILLPHASE WEDNESDAY....RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWTHAT WILL TRACK NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON THURSDAY.DOWNSTREAM ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER JET IN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER BYABOUT 40KT COMPARED TO GFS/NAM AND RESULTING IN STRONGERCYCLOGENESIS AND FARTHER WEST TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF/CANADIANALSO PHASING THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY QUICKER. THE RESULTANTTHERMAL GRADIENT IN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AS WELL...WITH MORERAIN AND SLEET TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. GFS/NAMFORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET THEN SLEET MIXING INNEAR THE CHSPK BAY AS WARM NOSE PUSHES NNE.MAJOR QPF DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS WELL WITH ECMWF SHOWING AWIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...WHICH IS CONSISTENT TO THEPREVIOUS RUN AS WELL. NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHARP CUTOFF GRADIENT OFQPF ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE...LIKELY DUE TO PRECIP BEING GENERATEDWITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/TROWAL FORCING AND IN A BANDING NATURE.ECMWF SHOWS MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH DEFORMATION ZONEPRECIP AND HENCE THE HIGHER QPF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET WITH12 OR 10:1 SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THISPOINT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR SLEET ISLIKELY. STORM SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sweet jesus, mother of god. I think I've seen the perfect model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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