MidlothianWX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SE forum is talking about this blowing up into a bigger storm with the latest models. They don't really talk much about anything outside of GA/SC/NC though. Any local experts on what the latest shows SEVA? Just going off what I've seen on the models today, I think the chances for accumulating snow down your way are small. For the most part, RIC has been depicted as the battle zone, especially on the CMC and Euro. We won't have much cold air to work with this time around so the longer the high pressure to our north can stick around, the better. This event is still quite a ways out so anything can happen. However, with the current ensemble agreement I don't see this being a significant storm south or east of Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just going off what I've seen on the models today, I think the chances for accumulating snow down your way are small. For the most part, RIC has been depicted as the battle zone, especially on the CMC and Euro. We won't have much cold air to work with this time around so the longer the high pressure to our north can stick around, the better. This event is still quite a ways out so anything can happen. However, with the current ensemble agreement I don't see this being a significant storm south or east of Central VA. Have to agree. I don't even think RIC sees much. CHO and west will have the cold air longer, and should accumulate heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Have to agree. I don't even think RIC sees much. CHO and west will have the cold air longer, and should accumulate heavy wet snow. At this time, I would not expect anything over 4 or 5". Anything more than that is probably unlikely. SE forum is talking about this blowing up into a bigger storm with the latest models. They don't really talk much about anything outside of GA/SC/NC though. Any local experts on what the latest shows SEVA? You really wouldn't want it to be a bigger storm. You would prefer it to stay weak/somewhat strung out. A strong system will probably cause a lot of the area to warm up, especially in areas of southern Va and east of the fall line. It would probably tend to track farther north as well which would make things worse if you want even a chance of snow. But, as Jake alluded to, the strength and placement of the high is paramount for VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Been hoping this thing would bring something over in SWVA. Looks like we might get a little something, nothing or a moderate snow.......depending on which model you look at and when it runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Surprised this thread isn't more active with the 12z NAM showing 3+ inches of snow Tuesday for SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow General Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Surprised this thread isn't more active with the 12z NAM showing 3+ inches of snow Tuesday for SE VA. Well the 84hr Nam doesn't exactly have a stellar record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Surprised this thread isn't more active with the 12z NAM showing 3+ inches of snow Tuesday for SE VA. I am tracking it. To be honest I was worried about temps with the winds looking like they will have a bit of an onshore component but the 12Z NAM shows 0.8 precip of snow with temps verbatim around 26 throughout the day Tuesday. I would like to lock this in please. Yes I know it is the NAM but it is now showing it at hour 72 and the trend has been in our favor. We can hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep gonna be another close one. Where the over running moisture sets up and how the temps hold is gonna be key for who gets the bigs snows and who gets basically shafted.. Someone is gonna get allot of ice too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is really a thing of beauty right now. Verbatim 10-12" for the southside. It has burned is in the past though, especially at 84hrs out, but there is still nice potential for us in HR. It's really wild how we have been in the perfect spot riding the northern fringe for these past few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is really a thing of beauty right now. Verbatim 10-12" for the southside. It has burned is in the past though, especially at 84hrs out, but there is still nice potential for us in HR. It's really wild how we have been in the perfect spot riding the northern fringe for these past few storms. Yeah it does look great but let's not get too excited just yet. Just look at this wave today. Just 1.5-2 days ago it was supposed to bring precip all the way up into central VA and it didn't even make it to the VA/NC border. Who knows what will end up happening with this next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC351 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-092100-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-351 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OVEREASTERN NORTH CAROLINA POSSIBLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANDCONTINUING THRU TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWSLEET AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Seems like they are going with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMW550i Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a cutoff on the NAM...Lol. are we in for another RIC screwjob or is there a chance it could come north a bit like most every storm this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seasonal trend argues 2 inches for Ric. More south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Seasonal trend argues 2 inches for Ric. More south..... Is it really seasonal anymore, or just climo? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hoping this wont turn into another Sleet storm around the Ric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Overrunning on 12z NAM has come back north... More favorable for HR then the overnight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Overrunning weaker though, NAM has 2nd wave as big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 RPM (based off of NAM) looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For what it's worth, Euro clown maps give RIC 10-12. GGEM destroys RIC. Unfortunately, we have almost no breathing room on temps. At this point, 2-4 and a changeover to rain seems realistic this far out, but you never know with us. Hoping the guidance ticks east a little bit to give some more space on temps and to get the HR crew in here some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Sunday models converging on a more classic east coast snowstorm Wed.-Thu. with inland areas from RIC north and west seeing the best snow. A quick changeover for SE VA by Wed. night. but I can't really complain. We've had it good here over the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For what it's worth, Euro clown maps give RIC 10-12. GGEM destroys RIC. Unfortunately, we have almost no breathing room on temps. At this point, 2-4 and a changeover to rain seems realistic this far out, but you never know with us. Hoping the guidance ticks east a little bit to give some more space on temps and to get the HR crew in here some action. At this point, I would agree with you. I'm very comfortable going with 4 or close to 5 inches at RIC. I become skeptical when models trend for more than 6 or 7" because of the way things have tended to turn out the last 20 years or so. 12/18-19/2009 and 2/14-18/2003 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Classic setup for RIC snow to changeover. It's one of those cases where being nw of the city is ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Chance of snow on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the latest NAM slides a bit east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cautiously optimistic for central VA. The global spread is tightening some which is good but not so much that it's giving one specific area the infamous 72 hour jackpot. I'd take most of the solutions (sans GFS) and run with them. 12z snow outputs for RIC metro were around 12-20" GGEM, 10-12" Euro and 8-12" EPS. Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RIC should be cautious until snow is on the ground and the storm passed. Miller A's haven't been kind to us recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cautiously optimistic for central VA. The global spread is tightening some which is good but not so much that it's giving one specific area the infamous 72 hour jackpot. I'd take most of the solutions (sans GFS) and run with them. 12z snow outputs for RIC metro were around 12-20" GGEM, 10-12" Euro and 8-12" EPS. Exciting times ahead. How'd LYH look on the GGEM? I saw the EURO and EPS but missed the GGEM somehow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As an extreme RIC-snow pessimist, I actually feel decent about where we are right now. Have to see where the Euro comes in, but the 12z Euro track was pretty much the midpoint of current guidance. Tbh, I'd take a GFS solution and be happy with it. I'm a pure snow guy, so I'd be more than happy to sacrifice some QPF to avoid p-type issues, especially given how those borderline scenarios work out with us. The CMC is the only solution that gives the best of both worlds, but we all know 20" isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As an extreme RIC-snow pessimist, I actually feel decent about where we are right now. Have to see where the Euro comes in, but the 12z Euro track was pretty much the midpoint of current guidance. Tbh, I'd take a GFS solution and be happy with it. I'm a pure snow guy, so I'd be more than happy to sacrifice some QPF to avoid p-type issues, especially given how those borderline scenarios work out with us. The CMC is the only solution that gives the best of both worlds, but we all know 20" isn't going to happen. +1 Temps will be a concern but when are they not with coastals. I'm a little different in the sense that I'll take my chances with a little more qpf but overall I think we can agree that this is looking like our best "big" setup in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 +1 Temps will be a concern but when are they not with coastals. I'm a little different in the sense that I'll take my chances with a little more qpf but overall I think we can agree that this is looking like our best "big" setup in years. Amen. I think most of us knew deep inside for the last several big "events" that we didn't have much of a shot. This is the first one in a while that I feel good about, which will make it even more vicious if we end up with an inch of rain ( or nothing at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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