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SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

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EURO has the weekend storm. Typical RIC KU screw job, but RIC and points west look good for 4-6 mixed accums.

Yeah, I am thinking back to 2003 Valentine's Day Weekend, where we ended up with a load of sleet.  Was that one of the PD storms we get jobbed on?  I will gladly take 4-6" and call it a successful winter. 

Not to mention, since we have had a couple of minor events, Richmonders are better drivers after the first few and don't bum rush the grocery store as bad.  I mean, I have lived here 43 years and have never been snowed in more than one day, that was January 1996. 

Maybe VDOT has blown their load so to speak on the road treatments as well, so they won't have enough to coat the roads with more salt and sand than actual accumulating snow we receive.  One great thing about the rain today, has washed the streets and sidewalks clean.

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DT doom and gloom for RC snow chances. Lol....giving up on a possible Miller A 5.5 days out. That guy is bipolar.

I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better.  

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I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better.  

 

eh..he knows his stuff. It's a shame that his personality gets in the way of his knowledge. 

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eh..he knows his stuff. It's a shame that his personality gets in the way of his knowledge. 

Does he really know his stuff though? I would say that as a meteorologist you not only have to understand the physics behind what you're talking about, but also how to communicate your views in a responsible manner. He changes his forecast day to day model run to model run. This suggests to me that not only does he not really know his stuff, but he's irresponsible with the knowledge he has. If he emphasized just how tenuous a lot of his day 7 predictions really are I'd have less of problem, but he consistently does stuff just for the hype. 

I'll take your word for it though, you've been around longer. I'm sure he was an interesting voice on the forums and maybe the publicity got to him. 

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Yeah, I have to agree with JMU. 

 

Dave does know his stuff but sometimes his "inner weenie" gets the best of him.  I am afraid if I were a Met, I might fall victim to that as well.  In the Mid-Atlantic with winter weather, seems best to be guarded and be a realist instead of honking every time the models show something.

 

When he posted back on Eastern, it would come in spurts, but it was best to read his posts and not react. 

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Does he really know his stuff though? I would say that as a meteorologist you not only have to understand the physics behind what you're talking about, but also how to communicate your views in a responsible manner. He changes his forecast day to day model run to model run. This suggests to me that not only does he not really know his stuff, but he's irresponsible with the knowledge he has. If he emphasized just how tenuous a lot of his day 7 predictions really are I'd have less of problem, but he consistently does stuff just for the hype. 

I'll take your word for it though, you've been around longer. I'm sure he was an interesting voice on the forums and maybe the publicity got to him. 

 

There was a time, back in 2008-2009, when he would teach some stuff to us non-mets. It was before everyone on FB liked his damn page and swelled his already large ego. I actually learned a good bit from him. Now, I can't stand his  page. Every other post is "learn to read a map" or bitching about weatherboy or something. When he gets something right, he point people to a donation site. I don't think it's about weather for him anymore...it's about notoriety and "maybe" some extra cash.

 

He is a snow weenie, just like most of us in RIC. It's tough for us not to be bitter....I'm still smarting over snowmagedon. 

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I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better.

Ehh....he's right better than half the time. Cut him some slack. From what I've seen from most of the MA board that's ATLEAST par for the course. His attitude and personality........that could use some work. He really does give helpful info if you know how to dissect it.
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Ehh....he's right better than half the time. Cut him some slack. From what I've seen from most of the MA board that's ATLEAST par for the course. His attitude and personality........that could use some work. He really does give helpful info if you know how to dissect it.

Yeah, "idiot" is maybe a bit much. But my problem is less with his forecasting and more with the way he communicates it, I suppose. I don't care if he's wrong, I just wish he had a more honest approach to the whole thing. 

I like the mets and armchair mets here a lot more than anywhere else, really. Even when they're wrong, most of them own it and you can really tell they're here because they love the weather. 

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Yeah, "idiot" is maybe a bit much. But my problem is less with his forecasting and more with the way he communicates it, I suppose. I don't care if he's wrong, I just wish he had a more honest approach to the whole thing. 

I like the mets and armchair mets here a lot more than anywhere else, really. Even when they're wrong, most of them own it and you can really tell they're here because they love the weather.

I don't know much about weather. I come here to learn. There are a few that I know to listen to but most up north just hang on every model run from 10+ days out, live and die each run, then:

A. Love the snow they get, act like they have NE climo, claim they saw it 6 days out and praise the models or

B. Can't believe it when they get shafted (see NE climo syndrome), remember their real climo, complain about the models and move on to the next storm.

The banter is fun to read though :)

I'll continue to read all and take stock in a few.

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I don't know much about weather. I come here to learn. There are a few that I know to listen to but most up north just hang on every model run from 10+ days out, live and die each run, then:

A. Love the snow they get, act like they have NE climo, claim they saw it 6 days out and praise the models or

B. Can't believe it when they get shafted (see NE climo syndrome), remember their real climo, complain about the models and move on to the next storm.

The banter is fun to read though :)

I'll continue to read all and take stock in a few.

Well, there's really only about 2 or 3 actual meteorologists that post regularly in the main pattern/storm threads. That explains a lot, I think. The real mets typically understand what the models actually show and how they're to be interpreted in terms of an actual forecast. The banter is definitely fun, and I reckon that's why I like hanging around here.

Some people go way too far with it, though. The territorial bitterness over snow is never a good thing to see. I really think anyone who gets like that should just try and move NE if they really care that much.

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Anyone think we have even the slightest chance for this weekend? Seems like the best case scenario is the R/S line setting up along CHO to EZF to DCA. Even when the models have shifted south, it doesn't seem to resolve our p-type issues.

Euro was a nice hit RIC north and west, but every model shows something different so who knows.

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Anyone think we have even the slightest chance for this weekend? Seems like the best case scenario is the R/S line setting up along CHO to EZF to DCA. Even when the models have shifted south, it doesn't seem to resolve our p-type issues.

I like the suppressed look. Much better than Miller B transfer over Delmarva. Gives us something to track as north trends have done it twice this year for us. Better chance on the first wave as far as cold goes though. Best case at this early lead for wintry weather would be a saturday thump with transfer to our north on second wave to keep us out of most of the rain with some back end mix? The possibilities are many at this point.

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HPC disco FWIW:

 

THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SAT/D3 HAS TRENDED

TOWARD A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF ITS FORMER SELF FROM EARLIER MODEL
FORECASTS... DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS... WHICH GENERALLY LEADS
TO A WEAKER AND FLATTER SYSTEM EXITING THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SUN/D4. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION GIVEN
THE FACT THAT WE HAVE SEEN A NORTHWESTWARD/STRONGER SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE /WITHIN 72 HRS/ WITH AT LEAST TWO RECENT EAST COAST
SYSTEMS. DID NOT WANT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THERE ARE
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAINTAIN A STRONGER/CLOSER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT MANY OF THOSE ARE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
OTHERS. A 12Z GEFS/ECENS MEAN COMPROMISE SERVED TO BALANCE OUT THE
WILDLY VARIED DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
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Looks like maybe .5-1 for far SE VA tomorrow,. It's a close shave with the 850s but looks like the high in NW PA might be just enough. I wouldn't expect any trouble with the roads though even if it does stay all snow. Should be at least slightly above freezing for most of the day. Bigger deal comes mid-week, looks right now like snow to rain on the coast, maybe all snow or at least all frozen not too far inland.

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