JB Fins Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 EURO has the weekend storm. Typical RIC KU screw job, but RIC and points west look good for 4-6 mixed accums. Yeah, I am thinking back to 2003 Valentine's Day Weekend, where we ended up with a load of sleet. Was that one of the PD storms we get jobbed on? I will gladly take 4-6" and call it a successful winter. Not to mention, since we have had a couple of minor events, Richmonders are better drivers after the first few and don't bum rush the grocery store as bad. I mean, I have lived here 43 years and have never been snowed in more than one day, that was January 1996. Maybe VDOT has blown their load so to speak on the road treatments as well, so they won't have enough to coat the roads with more salt and sand than actual accumulating snow we receive. One great thing about the rain today, has washed the streets and sidewalks clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT doom and gloom for RC snow chances. Lol....giving up on a possible Miller A 5.5 days out. That guy is bipolar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT doom and gloom for RC snow chances. Lol....giving up on a possible Miller A 5.5 days out. That guy is bipolar. I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better. eh..he knows his stuff. It's a shame that his personality gets in the way of his knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 eh..he knows his stuff. It's a shame that his personality gets in the way of his knowledge. Does he really know his stuff though? I would say that as a meteorologist you not only have to understand the physics behind what you're talking about, but also how to communicate your views in a responsible manner. He changes his forecast day to day model run to model run. This suggests to me that not only does he not really know his stuff, but he's irresponsible with the knowledge he has. If he emphasized just how tenuous a lot of his day 7 predictions really are I'd have less of problem, but he consistently does stuff just for the hype. I'll take your word for it though, you've been around longer. I'm sure he was an interesting voice on the forums and maybe the publicity got to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, I have to agree with JMU. Dave does know his stuff but sometimes his "inner weenie" gets the best of him. I am afraid if I were a Met, I might fall victim to that as well. In the Mid-Atlantic with winter weather, seems best to be guarded and be a realist instead of honking every time the models show something. When he posted back on Eastern, it would come in spurts, but it was best to read his posts and not react. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does he really know his stuff though? I would say that as a meteorologist you not only have to understand the physics behind what you're talking about, but also how to communicate your views in a responsible manner. He changes his forecast day to day model run to model run. This suggests to me that not only does he not really know his stuff, but he's irresponsible with the knowledge he has. If he emphasized just how tenuous a lot of his day 7 predictions really are I'd have less of problem, but he consistently does stuff just for the hype. I'll take your word for it though, you've been around longer. I'm sure he was an interesting voice on the forums and maybe the publicity got to him. There was a time, back in 2008-2009, when he would teach some stuff to us non-mets. It was before everyone on FB liked his damn page and swelled his already large ego. I actually learned a good bit from him. Now, I can't stand his page. Every other post is "learn to read a map" or bitching about weatherboy or something. When he gets something right, he point people to a donation site. I don't think it's about weather for him anymore...it's about notoriety and "maybe" some extra cash. He is a snow weenie, just like most of us in RIC. It's tough for us not to be bitter....I'm still smarting over snowmagedon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've never really understood why this forum gives that guy any attention beyond the fact that he used to post here. Just seems like kind of an idiot. All he does is grandstand on weather models that he doesn't understand any better than anyone else on this forum, just so he can get a rise out of his FB followers that don't know any better.Ehh....he's right better than half the time. Cut him some slack. From what I've seen from most of the MA board that's ATLEAST par for the course. His attitude and personality........that could use some work. He really does give helpful info if you know how to dissect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There was a time, back in 2008-2009, when he would teach some stuff to us non-mets. I told him as much today. I don't know if it is simply I know more than I did 3 or 4 years ago or he's teaching/explaining less or a combination of both. But, I learn far less from him now than three years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ehh....he's right better than half the time. Cut him some slack. From what I've seen from most of the MA board that's ATLEAST par for the course. His attitude and personality........that could use some work. He really does give helpful info if you know how to dissect it. Yeah, "idiot" is maybe a bit much. But my problem is less with his forecasting and more with the way he communicates it, I suppose. I don't care if he's wrong, I just wish he had a more honest approach to the whole thing. I like the mets and armchair mets here a lot more than anywhere else, really. Even when they're wrong, most of them own it and you can really tell they're here because they love the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, "idiot" is maybe a bit much. But my problem is less with his forecasting and more with the way he communicates it, I suppose. I don't care if he's wrong, I just wish he had a more honest approach to the whole thing. I like the mets and armchair mets here a lot more than anywhere else, really. Even when they're wrong, most of them own it and you can really tell they're here because they love the weather. I don't know much about weather. I come here to learn. There are a few that I know to listen to but most up north just hang on every model run from 10+ days out, live and die each run, then: A. Love the snow they get, act like they have NE climo, claim they saw it 6 days out and praise the models or B. Can't believe it when they get shafted (see NE climo syndrome), remember their real climo, complain about the models and move on to the next storm. The banter is fun to read though I'll continue to read all and take stock in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't know much about weather. I come here to learn. There are a few that I know to listen to but most up north just hang on every model run from 10+ days out, live and die each run, then: A. Love the snow they get, act like they have NE climo, claim they saw it 6 days out and praise the models or B. Can't believe it when they get shafted (see NE climo syndrome), remember their real climo, complain about the models and move on to the next storm. The banter is fun to read though I'll continue to read all and take stock in a few. Well, there's really only about 2 or 3 actual meteorologists that post regularly in the main pattern/storm threads. That explains a lot, I think. The real mets typically understand what the models actually show and how they're to be interpreted in terms of an actual forecast. The banter is definitely fun, and I reckon that's why I like hanging around here. Some people go way too far with it, though. The territorial bitterness over snow is never a good thing to see. I really think anyone who gets like that should just try and move NE if they really care that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone think we have even the slightest chance for this weekend? Seems like the best case scenario is the R/S line setting up along CHO to EZF to DCA. Even when the models have shifted south, it doesn't seem to resolve our p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone think we have even the slightest chance for this weekend? Seems like the best case scenario is the R/S line setting up along CHO to EZF to DCA. Even when the models have shifted south, it doesn't seem to resolve our p-type issues. Euro was a nice hit RIC north and west, but every model shows something different so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro was a nice hit RIC north and west, but every model shows something different so who knows. How much snow is the Euro showing for Short Pump this weekend? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone think we have even the slightest chance for this weekend? Seems like the best case scenario is the R/S line setting up along CHO to EZF to DCA. Even when the models have shifted south, it doesn't seem to resolve our p-type issues. I like the suppressed look. Much better than Miller B transfer over Delmarva. Gives us something to track as north trends have done it twice this year for us. Better chance on the first wave as far as cold goes though. Best case at this early lead for wintry weather would be a saturday thump with transfer to our north on second wave to keep us out of most of the rain with some back end mix? The possibilities are many at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HPC disco FWIW: THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SAT/D3 HAS TRENDEDTOWARD A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF ITS FORMER SELF FROM EARLIER MODELFORECASTS... DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS... WHICH GENERALLY LEADSTO A WEAKER AND FLATTER SYSTEM EXITING THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTICCOAST SUN/D4. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION GIVENTHE FACT THAT WE HAVE SEEN A NORTHWESTWARD/STRONGER SHIFT IN THEGUIDANCE /WITHIN 72 HRS/ WITH AT LEAST TWO RECENT EAST COASTSYSTEMS. DID NOT WANT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THERE AREMANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAINTAIN A STRONGER/CLOSER LOW PRESSURESYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT MANY OF THOSE ARE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THANOTHERS. A 12Z GEFS/ECENS MEAN COMPROMISE SERVED TO BALANCE OUT THEWILDLY VARIED DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone have 0Z Euro QPF maps? Apparently it was a decent run for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone have 0Z Euro QPF maps? Apparently it was a decent run for RIC. I am pretty sure you're not supposed to post Euro maps in the forums. That being said, for Saturday: Euro was 2-3" for Richmond metro, 4" lollipops to the east. In addition, it was 6-8" for the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Kevin - Did it show any back end snow for SEVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 the 12th looks interesting on the GFS too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The middle of next week is starting to look like the best chance of the season for those of us in this thread. Plus we might still get something from the weekend storm, but I'm not holding out for that one IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z GFS has it snowing for close to 3 straight days next week in CVA. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z GFS has it snowing for close to 3 straight days next week in CVA. Lol Yup. I can't imagine that'll actually verify, but who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0z GFS did the same thing. Almost 1.50 qpf at RIC from day 5.5-8, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Keep an eye on the pecip in Atl/SC may just move up enough to clip parts of southern VA with a quick dusting early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 AKQ still likes our chances of seeing up to an inch, perhaps upwards of two in spots further SE. It will be interesting to see if the models strengthen the low at all tomorrow. Next week certainly looks active, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like maybe .5-1 for far SE VA tomorrow,. It's a close shave with the 850s but looks like the high in NW PA might be just enough. I wouldn't expect any trouble with the roads though even if it does stay all snow. Should be at least slightly above freezing for most of the day. Bigger deal comes mid-week, looks right now like snow to rain on the coast, maybe all snow or at least all frozen not too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, tomorrow is the Polar Plunge down here, so it would be a nice little addition to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 SE forum is talking about this blowing up into a bigger storm with the latest models. They don't really talk much about anything outside of GA/SC/NC though. Any local experts on what the latest shows SEVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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