DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Clues elsewhere that the NAM is looking a bit better. I wouldn't mind a Wednesday off, let's go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From DT on the 12Z Nam... *** ABOUT SE VA SNOWSTORM THREAT on JAN29** 12Z NAM model just came WEST & showed Much more liquid Into se va . Compare to 6z & 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 9z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 not all gone only about 25-30% gone. The 6z suite went east and temps look a little warmer. Winter storm watch went up fast.. could be our kiss of death. Statistically speaking, how often has an east trend won out in the end this Winter? Let's not jump off the bridge just yet. I thought the last storm was a goner and we got a good snow. So, ya never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WPC 24-Hour Probability of Snowfall Accumulating >= 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 9z SREF SREFS were pretty bad with the last storm, caving to the NAM at the last moment. Still, cut that by 50%, and still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 9z SREF Is this a 3hr total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the timing on this bad boy? Same as last week, or is this pushed more into Wed morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z suite is coming in strong, but not historic. GFS has southside in .5-.75 NAM is similar and even the RGEM has come west. Feeling pretty confident in a 3-6" event, but with some upside potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I bet AKQ will pull the trigger on the warning by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good luck SE va and points south. This storm is for you. West and north of Richmond might see flurries. Richmond itself is on that cut off line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still no way to predict how this will go... Def could boom or bust in this area for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Seems as though there is some limited interaction between N and S vort on the most recent NAM and SREF but the GFS is depicting no interaction with less N stream dig. Any thoughts on why the handling is different and why one solution may be better than another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I feel like I say this often, but the bust potential on both sides is huge if you live NW of ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Management at work starting to realize that there may be an issue tomorrow evening. And I understand the general reluctance to think there's a decent amount of snow on the way, but employees do need a bit of guidance on this and one manager is just telling everyone, "It's not going to snow!!!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RaleighWx's Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think that the "A" zone for us on the southside is really a best case scenario. 8-12 just seems too high for us. A general 4-8 on the south side will have a much higher chance of verifying, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think that the "A" zone for us on the southside is really a best case scenario. 8-12 just seems too high for us. A general 4-8 on the south side will have a much higher chance of verifying, IMO. You could get 6 inches and just on the other side of the James, we could get nothing. Gonna be tight here with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wavy updated their projections...and their in house model is showing 7-8" on the southside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wavy updated their projections...and their in house model is showing 7-8" on the southside. Is that real? Crappy model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 that's their projection... in-house model is showing slightly different numbers, but along these ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DT out with his first guess.... 10-14" for most of Chesapeake and VB. 6-10" for the rest of HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DT out with his first guess.... 10-14" for most of Chesapeake and VB. 6-10" for the rest of HR Oh my. When time are the flakes supposed to start flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just crossed 60degrees here. Pretty wild we will be seeing snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NWS is playing it conservative. 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 updated WPC map shows increased chance in SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For posterity, here are the local mets' calls at the moment: WAVY: 4-6" for VB/Ches WTKR: 4-6" for VB/Ches WVEC: 4-9" for VB/Ches with spots up to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The current watches and warnings map. Slight chance it gets shoved one county west later tonight. That being said... enjoy it Norfolk and VB area. Enjoy. ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z is has more moisture for RIC and SeVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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