Inudaw Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Se Va and points south into nc and Scott still look like main threat for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CRAS is nice for the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Half of the GFS Ensembles are a big hit SE VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Full circle on this thing with the models. Everything has come back for SE Virginia and points south much like the guidance did with the 12/26/10 event. Don't know if it will be that much but it seems almost certain now we'll see something from this. Whether it's 1"-12" I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 oh wow....if that verified we'd be over 15" on the southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 From the SE discussion. 15z SREF probabilities of 24 hour 1+ inches of snow, through 4pm Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Maybe even better is this from SE thread....30-50% chance of 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 need that precip shield to expand some. I'm laughing at this point...Richmond can't win a damn thing. Pretty much everywhere N of Florida will have more snow than RVA by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 need that precip shield to expand some. I'm laughing at this point...Richmond can't win a damn thing. Pretty much everywhere N of Florida will have more snow than RVA by Wednesday. Yeah I feel for you Richmond folks. Maybe next time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This will probably be a repeat of Tuesday for us here in HR. I'll take another 3-4" and reach climo before the end of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This will probably be a repeat of Tuesday for us here in HR. I'll take another 3-4" and reach climo before the end of Jan. I think it could be much more if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Updated WPC maps now include HR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah I feel for you Richmond folks. Maybe next time... Don't dance in the end zone just yet. This thing was stone cold dead on most of the models 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah I feel for you Richmond folks. Maybe next time... We've been saying "next time" for years now. Big snows go N, W, S, and E. At some point, the law of averages needs to dump a 20+ incher on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We've been saying "next time" for years now. Big snows go N, W, S, and E. At some point, the law of averages needs to dump a 20+ incher on us. One day you'll get it. February looks like a good month for it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We've been saying "next time" for years now. Big snows go N, W, S, and E. At some point, the law of averages needs to dump a 20+ incher on us. We talk a lot about this in our RIC chat. Anthony (RIC Airport) is quite the pessimist when it comes to our climo, although I don't blame him. March 2009-March 2010 was a great stretch where I personally saw 45" IMBY. However, as you have alluded to, RIC has missed out on the big one, which climatologically speaking is a ~14"+ storm for the metro. Using over a century of data I've calculated this to be a 1 in 13 year event. Accounting for measurement errors, the last time this physically happened in the city was January 1996 (Jan. 2000 was awfully close). So, that means we've gone about 18 years now without a "significant" event (again, Jan. 2000 was within an inch or two but that doesn't technically count). I think when you factor in long-term temp trends, climo data, and the fact that a few of our most recent storms were within the margin of error (Dec. 09 was within a hair of giving us 15" or more), it doesn't seem as bad. It's certainly is hard to watch locations all around us get their due though, save for maybe the Roanoke area. To be honest, having looked over the numbers I now appreciate how fortunate RIC truly was during some of those great stretches in the 20th century. We need to thread the needle with almost any setup here and to do it time and time again, nearly right on schedule from a climo standpoint from the early 60's through the 80's (and before that as well) was remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z Nam going the wrong direction....was knocking on Se VA door at 12Z, now shifted the precip back south to OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 People in other thread saying there seemed to be some issues with that run. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z NAM is what I'm afraid of. I've seen it more than once with these set-ups where precip will get right to the VA/NC border and completely die. NAM is out there on it's own with this right now, though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 People in other thread saying there seemed to be some issues with that run. We shall see. Some will say this isn't a good comparison, but people also said there were problems with the run that brought the 12/26/10 storm back to life. We see how that went... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z NAM is what I'm afraid of. I've seen it more than once with these set-ups where precip will get right to the VA/NC border and completely die. NAM is out there on it's own with this right now, though so we'll see. After Hr 84 it looks interesting. If it plays out this way it might be even better for our area with a coastal. It is possible the NAM is having issues this run, seemed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think some folks in here are going to like the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think some folks in here are going to like the 18z GFS... lol! I think so. Big time Pecip break out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS ejects the southern stream. It's well north of 12z. 12"+ for se Virgiania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Don't mind if I do. I'll take 14"! Wooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 wow, just wow...here's total precip on 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs is a freight train of snow. Just dumping for hours and hours on HR. It is really to good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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