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SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

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Nice discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0609 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA PENINSULA...SERN VA...NERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220009Z - 220515Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE

DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SERN VA AND NC THROUGH

THE LATE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO PRIMARILY

SNOW ACROSS NERN NC BY 01-02Z. RATES OF 1 INCH PER HR COULD BECOME

COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SNOWFALL PRIMARILY

ALONG/E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS SERN VA...WITH A MORE

SIGNIFICANT BAND RECENTLY INTENSIFYING FROM N OF RIC S-SWWD TO NEAR

AVC...WHILE PRIMARILY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FARTHER S INTO NC.

MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED NE OF ILM AT 00Z...AND IS

FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEWD WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING AHEAD OF AN

APPROACHING VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE

COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE SFC

CYCLONE...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING

VORT MAX...WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY COOLING SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS

SRN VA AND NRN NC. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING

MIDLEVEL DCVA...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES.

THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL OCCUR WITHIN SNOWFALL BANDS ACROSS THE

COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH RATES NEAR

1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A LAYER OF STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED

CONVECTION...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES. THE RELATIVE PROGRESSIVE

NATURE OF THE VORT MAX SHOULD NOT YIELD A PARTICULARLY LONG-DURATION

EVENT ACROSS NC/SERN VA...WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

..ROGERS.. 01/22/2014

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A little back filling in going on again here in innsbrook West End area... Still barely hanging onto the light snow.. slowly adding up should make it to a whole 2 inches :) . At least it will be frigid tommrow so it will hang around a bit longer then usual... Nice blowup going on right on the off coast in mid NC will be good for you coaster's

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