DJnVa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 10:12 PM, D-Money said: Gfs is a freight train of snow. Just dumping for hours and hours on HR. It is really to good to be true. Hush!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You can always count on the 18z GFS to show an epic snowfall, lol. I am convinced that the 18z has some wacky programming built into it to please our weenie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good stuff, I will have to post here if the 18z GFS verifies. Been waiting for a Miller A hybrid type system, storms tracks have been very unfavorable for your area. We need true GOM moisture-feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 10:22 PM, SeVa said: You can always count on the 18z GFS to show an epic snowfall, lol. I am convinced that the 18z has some wacky programming built into it to please our weenie eyes ha ha. Yeah. 0z is known as the fantasy killer. Probably will bring us back down to reality, so enjoy the high while it last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well, it just doesn't get much better than the 18z GFS now does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 10:28 PM, D-Money said: ha ha. Yeah. 0z is known as the fantasy killer. Probably will bring us back down to reality, so enjoy the high while it last! The 0z could cut that in half and you're still looking at 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No the 18z GFS is the dream scenario for yall down there, and is nice to hand Richmond a nice serving as well. That being said, it is a clear north and west outlier right now. Its not impossible, but there is no consensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FWIW, 18z GEFS is essentially the same as the op, perhaps even a hair N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 10:31 PM, Inudaw said: No the 18z GFS is the dream scenario for yall down there, and is nice to hand Richmond a nice serving as well. That being said, it is a clear north and west outlier right now. Its not impossible, but there is no consensus yet. Hey! CRAS and SREFs agree! Lol...definite outlier. I'd take it, even if RIC gets shafted for huge snows. I'm just looking for a 4-6 inch snow....can't be greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 4-5/10 GEFS members give RIC right at or greater than .75" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Certainly thought we would see a NW trend but wow. Have a feeling it will be back and forth over the next few runs but will end up more north as this season's models have seemed to trend within 72. By the way just saw on local wx that the rain/snow line in HR will be "tricky" to forecast with this system, uh really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 11:55 PM, MACoastWx said: Certainly thought we would see a NW trend but wow. Have a feeling it will be back and forth over the next few runs but will end up more north as this season's models have seemed to trend within 72. By the way just saw on local wx that the rain/snow line in HR will be "tricky" to forecast with this system, uh really? If you were watching WAVY, that's just Tiffany being Tiffany. She's like Don Slater. Plays it extremely safe until the very last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 12:30 AM, SoCoWx said: If you were watching WAVY, that's just Tiffany being Tiffany. She's like Don Slater. Plays it extremely safe until the very last second. Didn't know if I was missing something or if the "in-house" model was really showing that. Any clue which model they were referencing @ 6:00 showing the precip well offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 1:19 AM, MACoastWx said: Didn't know if I was missing something or if the "in-house" model was really showing that. Any clue which model they were referencing @ 6:00 showing the precip well offshore? I believe the RPM and wow was that a terrible weather segment. Evan Stewart of WVEC did a great job in showing all the models and their solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 1:23 AM, VBsurf said: I believe the RPM and wow was that a terrible weather segment. Evan Stewart of WVEC did a great job in showing all the models and their solutions. You would think that with the potential this storm has it would be easy to throw it out there and get people to tune in later....ratings? I mean certainly if you think there is no potential then it would be morally wrong to do so, but of course the media would never falsely sensationalize something for ratings;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 21Z SREFs are a hit... To say the least. 50-70% chance of 12+" in HR That is a not a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21z SREF!! Couple of those would be historic to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 2:54 AM, SEVAsNOwSTORM said: 21z SREF!! Couple of those would be historic to say the least. thanks for posting and yes historic indeed. Those two have us in 2"-3" total QPF (if I'm seeing it right). 20+" would shut us down for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 from southeast board On 1/27/2014 at 3:51 AM, packbacker said: Not sure how that happened, the southern stream did get some late interaction with NS .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Things shaping up so far so good for South Eastern areas still. Metro Richmond is up in the air. Currently outside looking in imo. SC/NC/SE Va good to go so far. ^^; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z GFS gives SE VA about 7" with 10"+ just to the SE. 25-50 mile NW shift is all we need for possibility of a foot or more. I expect winter storm watches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If I wake up in the morning and this is all gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Would love to see a NW shift, but I doubt it'll be enough to get LYH involved. I think RIC has a pretty good shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 4:35 AM, DJnVa said: If I wake up in the morning and this is all gone... This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 4:35 AM, DJnVa said: If I wake up in the morning and this is all gone...not all gone only about 25-30% gone. The 6z suite went east and temps look a little warmer. Winter storm watch went up fast.. could be our kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We need that southern vort to accelerate east. Otherwise we will get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 11:44 AM, SeVa said: We need that southern vort to accelerate east. Otherwise we will get fringed. Agreed. Still have time but that east trend needs to stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At least the trend was in 6z, not 00 or 12z suite. Let's hope it was a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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