Ralph Wiggum Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Some models show it, GFS has backed off a bit. Media outlets going with a coastal low. What ye thinketh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The euro ens tot precip show about .75 from i78 on souh...with 1 inch from the pa turnpike south. The heaviest rains look to be in the se va and delmarva region with close to 3 inches. The euro op itself shows over 2 inches for philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 A true 'coastal' it would appear. Other guidance is on board as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z NAM is 0.75"+ near Philly and points south, 1.75"+ for southern Cape May. Really sharp cut off north of I-195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z NAM is 0.75"+ near Philly and points south, 1.75"+ for southern Cape May. Really sharp cut off north of I-195. Based on those numbers, for us in the Lehigh Valley, I am so thankful this is not January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z RGEM FWIW (only runs through hr 48) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Rex block FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Rex block FTW. Related to this-- the models show a very large ridge over Greenland in 7-10 days, although not very low heights over Europe or eastern North America. The lower area is in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Related to this-- the models show a very large ridge over Greenland in 7-10 days, although not very low heights over Europe or eastern North America. The lower area is in the Atlantic. 12z GFS has 192 consecutive hours of NE winds. That's a lotta drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Related to this-- the models show a very large ridge over Greenland in 7-10 days, although not very low heights over Europe or eastern North America. The lower area is in the Atlantic. I was looking at that too. I'm clearly from New England and we had significant blocking around this time last year which gave us nothing but rain. NAO went positive thereafter and we lost half of winter, in regards to prolonged snow events. -NAO didn't return till later in the season if I remember correctly and we ended getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z EURO is a major hit for the northeast. It gets significant rain from the coast to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z EURO is a major hit for the northeast. It gets significant rain SNOW from the coast to the lakes. Fixed it If this was only winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro has been somewhat consistent with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 This would be a heck of a storm if winter mode was on. Euro brings the chill at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 This would be a heck of a storm if winter mode was on. Euro brings the chill at 240 Teachnically, this is a southern jet disturbance, dissociated from the northern jet and "cold air" source aka lack of a phase. It be a coastal plain rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 As was mentioned, the euro is pretty darn wet. Pretty much stalls the low due east of norfolk so we get the continuous onshore flow right through the weekend. Temps pretty much stay in the mid 50s to low 60s from thurs through the weekend with rainy/drizzly garbage. total qpf for the region is 2-6 inches...with the 6 inches on the immediate coast, the 2 inches from abe north... philly area is around 2.5-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 18z gfs throws a curve. Keeps the main precip shield off shore and near the extreme coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro ens tot precip from wednesday night to monday morning is showing 2 inches for the immediate i95 area on south... with 3 inches along the coast line.. Up in the lehigh valley to pocs its 1.5-1.25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro ens tot precip from wednesday night to monday morning is showing 2 inches for the immediate i95 area on south... with 3 inches along the coast line.. Up in the lehigh valley to pocs its 1.5-1.25... How much into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 How much into SNE? from wed night to monday 12z...mass pike is the .5 line...once to the mass borders with NH and Vt its .4...from southern Ri to hfd to litchfield co Ct is the 1 inch line...it then pregressively goes up once you back sw towards danbury and se ct where it has 1.75...cape cod area is in the .5-.75, .5 north end, .75 south end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z GFS has 192 consecutive hours of NE winds. That's a lotta drizzle.Lotta potential for beach erosion too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 00z NAM has 35MPH+ winds hammering the NJ and DE beaches for an extended period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 0z euro still going with a long duration nor'easter that ends Tuesday. Has 2-4 inches of rain over the region. With 1-2.5 inches in the pocs and Lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro ens tot precip is the same as 12z maybe a little wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro ens tot precip is the same as 12z maybe a little wetter Did I not see a thread somewhere about predicting the first coastal? Lol Looks like a stormy 3-5 days along the NJ shore. Might head up your way to work on the cabin this weekend but clearing the property when it's wet is a non starter. Radar looks impressive with the bands coming in off the ocean into the OB. While there will be a long duration onshore fetch, this erosion from these is usually minor to locally moderate in spots (normally back bays that don't empty out) Be careful on the roads as the leaves peel off in the winds and watch for those deer!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Thanks Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I see the NAM is in Mid winter form already going from 2-4 inches at 6z to .5 at 12z for the Philly Metro area. I don't even want to imagine if this was January and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I see the NAM is in Mid winter form already going from 2-4 inches at 6z to .5 at 12z for the Philly Metro area. I don't even want to imagine if this was January and snow.Well, if it was, I'd be in here telling everyone the NAM is garbage, not to use it, and believe the GFS and Euro solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 The GFS has been putrid with the precip shield until 6z when it finally came around, so I'm not sure the GFS is the model of choice here. I'll put my money on the Euro tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well, if it was, I'd be in here telling everyone the NAM is garbage, not to use it, and believe the GFS and Euro solutions Of course! And i would fully expect the "Go home NAM you're drunk" gifs to start flying. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.