Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Severe threat 10/7


Mitchell Gaines

Recommended Posts

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   900 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     DELAWARE
     CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MARYLAND
     NEW JERSEY
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN VIRGINIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 900 AM UNTIL
     500 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
       MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF UTICA
   NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST THROUGH
   REMAINDER MORNING AND INTO AFTN.  PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
   WIND...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH EITHER QLCS/BOW
   CIRCULATIONS OR ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE BANDS.  MRGL BUOYANCY...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STG
   DEEP/SPEED SHEAR WILL CHARACTERIZE AIR MASS IN PROSPECTIVE
   CONVECTIVE INFLOW.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A tornado watch on October 7...pretty wild.  Will be interesting to follow this line.

 

Yeah espiecally since there have already been several warnings including 1 tornado warning in western PA and the VA/MD border. Still with the way things have gone this year I don't expect much but at least its something to follow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mcd1951.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0936 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY/NJ/ERN PA/DE/ERN MD/ERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 543...

VALID 071436Z - 071630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 543 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO

CONTINUES WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING NY/PA/MD/VA

ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LINE OF CONVECTION

STRETCHING FROM ERN LK ONTARIO SWD INTO CENTRAL NC...ADVANCING

THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MEAGER INSTABILITY AT BEST BUT VERY

STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR A STRONG

COLD FRONT -- MOVING QUICKLY EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN

ENERGETIC/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR THE

SURFACE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50 TO 60 KT FLOW IN THE 850 TO 500

MB LAYER...EXPECT THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MARCHING

EWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN

CHAOTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD NEAR ONGOING/FAST-MOVING CONVECTION --

MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN-UPS WHICH WOULD

LOCALLY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2013

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely have to keep an eye out for these isolated cells away from the squall.  Another concern that I have for severe weather is the southwest to northeast movement. I've seen quite a few times where we saw more severe weather than a west to east movement.  So, just monitoring those cells that pop up ahead of the line, which is where I think any tornadoes form today.  Any severe weather we observe this afternoon will be so quick.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY...

LOCATION...PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY
DATE...OCTOBER 7 2013
ESTIMATED TIME...316 PM - 318 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...1.25 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.9317N / 74.0926 W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.9459 N / 74.0779 W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY ON OCTOBER
7 2013.

BASED ON DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA...A STORM SURVEY AND INFORMATION
FROM THE LOCAL MEDIA...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMED AN EF1
TORNADO ACROSS CENTRAL BERGEN COUNTY.

AS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST...A PORTION OF
THE LINE ACCELERATED AND PRODUCED A WEAK TORNADO AS IT MOVED
NORTHEAST ACROSS BERGEN COUNTY.

BOTH RADAR AND OBSERVED DAMAGE PATTERNS SHOWED ROTATION NEAR AND
AT GROUND LEVELS. COUPLED WITH EYEWITNESS REPORTS OF A TORNADO...A
TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
MEMORIAL PARK CEMETERY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PARAMUS AND
CENTURY ROADS AND IN THE PARAMUS GOLF AND RIDGEWOOD COUNTRY
CLUBS...WHERE TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED.

SPECIAL THANKS GOES TO OUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SKYWARN
SPOTTER VOLUNTEER COORDINATOR FOR BERGEN COUNTY...AND TO THE
BERGEN COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR PERFORMING THIS
PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY. ADDITIONAL THANKS GOES TO OUR LOCAL TOWN
EMERGENCY COORDINATORS AND OUR LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA FOR ASSISTING
IN THIS CONFIRMATION.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

609 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY...

LOCATION...PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY

DATE...OCTOBER 7 2013

ESTIMATED TIME...316 PM - 318 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...1.25 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.9317N / 74.0926 W

ENDING LAT/LON...40.9459 N / 74.0779 W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED A

TORNADO NEAR PARAMUS IN BERGEN COUNTY NEW JERSEY ON OCTOBER

7 2013.

BASED ON DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA...A STORM SURVEY AND INFORMATION

FROM THE LOCAL MEDIA...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMED AN EF1

TORNADO ACROSS CENTRAL BERGEN COUNTY.

AS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST...A PORTION OF

THE LINE ACCELERATED AND PRODUCED A WEAK TORNADO AS IT MOVED

NORTHEAST ACROSS BERGEN COUNTY.

BOTH RADAR AND OBSERVED DAMAGE PATTERNS SHOWED ROTATION NEAR AND

AT GROUND LEVELS. COUPLED WITH EYEWITNESS REPORTS OF A TORNADO...A

TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE GEORGE WASHINGTON

MEMORIAL PARK CEMETERY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PARAMUS AND

CENTURY ROADS AND IN THE PARAMUS GOLF AND RIDGEWOOD COUNTRY

CLUBS...WHERE TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED.

SPECIAL THANKS GOES TO OUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SKYWARN

SPOTTER VOLUNTEER COORDINATOR FOR BERGEN COUNTY...AND TO THE

BERGEN COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR PERFORMING THIS

PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY. ADDITIONAL THANKS GOES TO OUR LOCAL TOWN

EMERGENCY COORDINATORS AND OUR LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA FOR ASSISTING

IN THIS CONFIRMATION.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES

INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.

EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.

EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.

EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.

EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.

EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

 

Sounds like Upton didn't do the survey themselves.  Damn shut-down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At how the event unfolded I assume. Very little in the way of severe reports. Just a general theme of how crap tastic this severe season has been.

Yeah, I guess. I have a NOAA radio in my truck, and I was listening to the "ominous" warning statements and the tornado watch in general. When the line passed through my location (I actually have video) it was about 5 minutes of very heavy rain, a few brief gusts, and no lightning/thunder whatsoever. Berks County was severe warned. Anyone know if that was merited?

 

***this is no way a bash of the guys at NOAA or Mount Holly...just sharing my observations***

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/LSRPHI

547 NWUS51 KPHI 081540LSRPHIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W10/07/2013                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC                      TREES DOWN 0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EARL TWP                40.35N  75.71W10/07/2013                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC                      TREES DOWN. 0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH EAST              39.60N  75.94W10/07/2013                   CECIL              MD   EMERGENCY MNGR              TREE TOPS SNAPPED ON HILLCREST LANE. TIME OF EVENT             ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. 0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWER NAZARETH TWP      40.70N  75.33W10/07/2013                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR              WIRES DOWN 0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST ALLEN TWP          40.71N  75.42W10/07/2013                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR              TREE DOWN. 0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOLEBURY TWP            40.37N  75.01W10/07/2013                   BUCKS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR              TREES UPROOTED AND SOME TREES DOWN ON HOMES. 0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERNARDS TWP            40.68N  74.58W10/07/2013                   SOMERSET           NJ   COUNTY OFFICIAL             TREES AND WIRES DOWN 0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHATHAM                 40.74N  74.38W10/07/2013                   MORRIS             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR              TREES DOWN IN CHATHAM BOROUGH. 0329 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND LEWES                   38.78N  75.15W10/07/2013  M39 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   WEATHER FLOW    &&EVENT NUMBER PHI1300451 PHI1300452 PHI1300444 PHI1300447 PHI1300446 PHI1300445 PHI1300449 PHI1300453 PHI1300448  $$ROBERTSON
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...