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wind and rain threat 10/7


forkyfork

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We start mixing 900-950mb winds of 40-45kts down early this afternoon. So we can see some wind gusts near 40mph before the squall line arrives late this afternoon. If the line stays strong, we could see higher winds, just ahead of it. Also there is chance of isolated tornado, with NAM and GFS showing curved hodographs and some cape.

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Low level winds are very strong -- the NAM was mixing down 45+ kt winds just from diurnal heating ahead of the squall line.

We will have to carefully watch any clearing which will really aid in surface based instability. But even without it the high dew points/weak instability could lead to a thin but strong squall line capable of bringing those winds down. Might be a no-lightning scenario too.

There is enough low level turning for concern of a few spinups within the line as well, as blue wave mentioned. Interesting day ahead.

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We have had mid 60s dews for a few days now, we may get to near 70 today.  Anytime we get a few days of high dews in October, look out.  In the past we do better in these setups when the high dew airmass is in place for a few days instead of getting advected the day of the event.

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30/20 is pretty good for this area regarding the threat. I would have thought the damaging wind probs would have been higher

 

Tornadoes
 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)

Wind
 

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (<5%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

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The event a few years ago that produced the tornados in Queens was a similar setup to this. These high shear low cape setups are great for brief spinups and gustly straight line winds.

 

Yes I remember that too well, I feel like we do best with these types of setups (especially the last half decade)

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The HRRR has an interesting scenario with discrete cells popping ahead of the main line and growing into a

possible QLCS.

 

 

12z NAM is coming in with a similar situation. Small cells ahead of the main line start popping from noon and on.

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