weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 NAM and other high res models have it (the main line) coming through 5-6 pm give or take... Probably after that. Maybe 5-6? It depends on how or if any bows develop like the one in PA. Yeah that's when models have activity come through but I'm wondering if it may end up being before 5-6 PM given how things are progressing. Then again, many times in these setups as the trough continues to deepen, it actually tugs back the front/dynamics a bit west and that leads to all sorts of disconnect between the strong forcing and the line...the line weakens and it's eastern progression slows a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Spc mcd outlining relatively small area of nw nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun's peaking through!!!!! WFO BTV LAST UPDATED AT 351 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2013 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 63. SOUTH WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH...INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Funny to see which of these statements includes exclamation points. Just a light breeze here starting to kick in here--pouring leaves. Still foggy, but some hint of sun breaking through. 60.1/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The 14z RAP has 550 j/kg of CAPE at BDL at 19z with 0-1km helicity of >300 m2/s2 at 3 p.m. this afternoon. Nearly 100 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-3km layer with LCLs near 400 meters. That's a pretty impressive setup for a low CAPE/high shear tornado event. It's pretty much coming into line with how things appeared on the modeling (or was suggested so...) from yesterday. It is interesting that SPC terminates the risk area, and the watch, so abruptly though. I don't see a lot of evidence that the kinematics will just stop on a dime as this total system migrates through. Hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's pretty much coming into line with how things appeared on the modeling (or was suggested so...) from yesterday. It is interesting that SPC terminates the risk area, and the watch, so abruptly though. I don't see a lot of evidence that the kinematics will just stop on a dime as this total system migrates through. Hm. It's still very possible we see a watch further east...whether it's a SVR or a TOR though remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's pretty much coming into line with how things appeared on the modeling (or was suggested so...) from yesterday. It is interesting that SPC terminates the risk area, and the watch, so abruptly though. I don't see a lot of evidence that the kinematics will just stop on a dime as this total system migrates through. Hm. Part of it is a function of timing - once you get past 21z the threat should diminish as we lose daytime heating. So I think once you get past I-91 the threat for damaging winds and spinners will diminish a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 76/69 at BDL and 75/68 at HFD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Finally getting some noticeable brightening of the skies up here along Rt 2 in Mass, as well. Noticeable jump in DP just in the last half hour.. Warm front labors N despite the deep layer SSW flow at all levels -- it always puzzles me when that/this happens, where you have 0 resistance yet non-mobile warm fronts in New England. Dr. Colby and I once postulated that it might have something to do with saturated BL's being harder to mix out than dry ones; then combining SNE uniquely warm screwing topograghical features and it may not be as simple as just advecting -vs- displacement. Anyway, we should be 73F with rich DPs up here given to the warming that is taking place along the Pike and CT/RI. I am wondering if we may also do better with CAPE then modeling, because it occurs to me that warm sector SW flow fields usually tend to clear up sky more than modeling, and therefore, any model-based CAPE may come into question. Have to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Part of it is a function of timing - once you get past 21z the threat should diminish as we lose daytime heating. So I think once you get past I-91 the threat for damaging winds and spinners will diminish a bit. If that is their thinking they should re-evaluate. They had an on-going line of severe or near severe NY/PA during the diurnal heating nadir (dawn) - hello. Or at least I thought there was. But I understand ... Also, we need to watch those valleys in CT that may have sfc wind focal-points for spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 76/69 at BDL and 75/68 at HFD!!! exactly! I was just commenting that sky cover may break optimistic across much of the area. Climatology of warm sectors -vs- modeling notoriously over-produces cloud cover in warm sectors, and the region tends to clear more in those deep layer SW flows. This may contribute to more CAPE then modeled. How that - if so - plays into any severe threat, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 56/56 with fog. No severe here. Looks like we're in the season where our cold fronts act as warm fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 76/69 at BDL and 75/68 at HFD!!! 15* difference between BDL and the pit.....that has to allow for something fun in between I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tippy Bahama blues here. Gotta be at least 76F. Those shwrs near NYC may try to hinder instability perhaps unless they move out. Otherwise, I think ern/SE NY and adjacent western areas look like a potential for strong winds and perhaps a brief spin-up given the heating we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 exactly! I was just commenting that sky cover may break optimistic across much of the area. Climatology of warm sectors -vs- modeling notoriously over-produces cloud cover in warm sectors, and the region tends to clear more in those deep layer SW flows. This may contribute to more CAPE then modeled. How that - if so - plays into any severe threat, not sure. THe localized breaks could certainly yield to some higher pockets of Cape. Clouds though have dominated here the past 10-15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 56/56 with fog. No severe here. Looks like we're in the season where our cold fronts act as warm fronts. Awful. 69.1/68 here FTW Winds have been started cranking here..getting gusts over 30 the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tippy Bahama blues here. Gotta be at least 76F. Those shwrs near NYC may try to hinder instability perhaps unless they move out. Otherwise, I think ern/SE NY and adjacent western areas look like a potential for strong winds and perhaps a brief spin-up given the heating we are seeing. Yeah, I was just wondering about that stuff. I was just commenting on warm sector climo and sky clearing, then I looked at that --- ha! That's out ahead of the action. I am wondering if that is rich DP in a low LCL environment being forced up slope ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 This wording sounds like watch will be expanded discussion, line of convection -- extending from upstate ny swdinto ern va -- with embedded bowing/lewp-type structures continuesadvancing quickly ewd. available pre-frontal instability remainsmeager -- particularly N of the mason-dixon line, but stronglarge-scale ascent continues to force the convective line.with area vwps revealing very strong deep-layer wind field --particularly across nrn portions of the area, threat for locallydamaging winds and a couple of brief tornadoes continues despite thelack of lightning. this threat will continue through the day --spreading ewd into new england later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I have to be honest, this is a rather exciting setup, but I worry about how similar this is to all the other severe busts we've had this year. I wonder if high dew events are just plain bad up here, since the mornings always start out cloudy, and the line always makes it to the NY MA state line around sunset. Just plain bad for instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 And look at that, SPC still has a cutoff after the 1230z update. However, they did mention this: THE STRONGESTFORCING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLYEVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WEAKENING WITH TIMEFROM SOUTH TO NORTH. Looks like another nail-biter. Man, I really, really hate these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I hope they get this problem fixed before the winds hit the City https://twitter.com/PeiSzeCheng4NY/status/387253012223492096/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I hope they get this problem fixed before the winds hit the City https://twitter.com/PeiSzeCheng4NY/status/387253012223492096/photo/1nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan5s Storm just east of Binghamton NY on Rt 17 looks like it may be going tornadic. Radar shows tightening rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I can see that a squall line is firing up in central New York state. There is even one severe warning right now. The SPC mesoanalysis says that there is only 100 J/kg of CAPE (or something like that.) Why is such a strong line of storms firing up if the CAPE is so low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I can see that a squall line is firing up in central New York state. There is even one severe warning right now. The SPC mesoanalysis says that there is only 100 J/kg of CAPE (or something like that.) Why is such a strong line of storms firing up if the CAPE is so low? Strong dynamics FTW! Such strong dynamics/forcing along the front is leading to the low topped forced line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun comes out winds gusted, gets cloudy brief shower sun comes out repeated several times today. Enjoy WCT WMA NNE this is all about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Very windy here in da Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Those kinks on radar in NE PA and near BGM are the features to watch on radar later on. Not specifically those, but those types of features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun comes out winds gusted, gets cloudy brief shower sun comes out repeated several times today. Enjoy WCT WMA NNE this is all about you. This is for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 windy and humid in Billerica, with intermittent sun, latest hrrr not encouraging.. Afro is blowing in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Awful. 69.1/68 here FTW Winds have been started cranking here..getting gusts over 30 the last hour that's okay. It evens out when you're 50 and dripping away while i'm 32 and still glazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.