IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looking a lot better the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yeah, the 00Z EURO definitely went east. I checked the Euroentre site: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!72!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013100400!!/ Could be the shear or the moisture is actually displaced about 75 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Pretty cool image, the big burst of new convection is casting a shadow on the rest of the cirrus canopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Pretty cool image, the big burst of new convection is casting a shadow on the rest of the cirrus canopy it's casting a shadow on low clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 it's casting a shadow on low clouds It's still a pretty cool image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Pretty cool image, the big burst of new convection is casting a shadow on the rest of the cirrus canopy You can see dry air being wrap around it from the sw side. Stop, it's not looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 You can see dry air being wrap around it from the sw side. Stop, it's not looking better Just go away, my post said nothing about it looking better. If you're going to be an ass about it, at least quote the right post. NHC 10AM discussion mentioned the new convection near the center. (Which is already being sheared off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 12z GFS is weaker and west with Karen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yup, GFS caving....let's see if we still get the wind and the rain like the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Complete death at 24hrs You can see the two centers well displaced, I guess none of this should really be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Even with the demise of Karen, the 12z GFS still shows an organized area of heavy rain emerging from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Amazing how nothing can get its act together this year....Euro from a few days ago wasn't that impressed with this system and while it developed some early on, it's likely to not be a big deal for anyone outside of some heavy rains and non damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 1-2" of rain 12z GFS for most of us. More west, under an inch east of the city. 2.0"+ PWAT's do cross eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Amazing how nothing can get its act together this year....Euro from a few days ago wasn't that impressed with this system and while it developed some early on, it's likely to not be a big deal for anyone outside of some heavy rains and non damaging winds Anytime you have moderate shear involved you need to already have a well established core. Karen was never able to completely wrap the convection all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Anytime you have moderate shear involved you need to already have a well established core. Karen was never able to completely wrap the convection all the way around. I wonder with the stall of the remnants near LA if we get anything at all up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 I wonder with the stall of the remnants near LA if we get anything at all up this way? The moisture rides north along the front and most areas see at least an inch of rain, but nothing even note worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The moisture rides north along the front and most areas see at least an inch of rain, but nothing even note worthy. I think an inch of rain from one event at this point is definitely note worthy. It's been very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Anytime you have moderate shear involved you need to already have a well established core. Karen was never able to completely wrap the convection all the way around. I'm honestly surprised anything did develop given the unfavorable profile in the Gulf. And what does develop can only endure so long in such an environment before being torn up. I think this at most will be a rainy cold frontal passage and nothing resembling an organized tropical system impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 So borning trees dying nuts out here. Need rain so bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 an inch of rain would be great. as long as enough forcing makes it east i think we'll do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 euro keeps all the rain west of the Delaware river. We get very little rain from this. Euro has been leading the way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 FWIW (not much) 18Z NAM is coming in a little stronger with Karen through 36hrs. Maintains Karen as she begins to drift eastward slowly over the northern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 euro keeps all the rain west of the Delaware river. We get very little rain from this. Euro has been leading the way here. wouldn't surprise me given how dry it's been...dry begets dry. If we do miss it, we're going to torch next week with the dry ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 The 18z NAM is coming in lock step with the Euro's idea of all the rain staying to our West. That would be quite a turn around in the models if we stayed dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The 18z NAM is coming in lock step with the Euro's idea of all the rain staying to our West. That would be quite a turn around in the models if we stayed dry. The drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The drought continues. It's not technically a drought yet, just abnormally dry but I must say it certainly has brought out the foliage. I don't remember seeing such rapid change so early in October. I know September was essentially ideal for foliage to begin and the continued dry conditions are only helping increase stress on the trees and cause rapid changes. We could peak by October 15-20th at this rate instead of around Halloween, early November with most leaves probably down by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 FWIW (not much) 18Z NAM is coming in a little stronger with Karen through 36hrs. Maintains Karen as she begins to drift eastward slowly over the northern gulf. Karen being stronger could enhance the ridge enough to keep the frontal boundary and rain west of us. Also, a weaker storm could get sheared apart faster and leave not much for the majority of our area. Needless to say, this isn't looking like a noteworthy event for us. If I was to guess at a solution, I'd assume the weak/sheared apart one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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