Tropical Storm Karen

[IsentropicLift]

Just to note, that the 12z ggem and ukmet went back to being weak and sheared out and also way west of the GFS.

Very similar to the Euro again.

Karen gets absorbed by the front on the 12z GGEM. Still brings a delayed heavy rain threat on Thursday.

 

[Brian5671]

It's already a 55kt Tropical Storm, significant development has occured.

it may have peaked however-not much in the way of favorable development potential on the road ahead, shear, a cool pool of water and alot of dry air to the NW

[Guest Imperator]

Well I have acknowledged the Euro solution, but I can't post the paid images that I have access to here. The GGEM as we all know is useless as a tropical model. What else would you prefer me to post? BTW the 12z Canadian gets the moisture up here, just delayed. Then shows a TC backing into the US coast again from Bermuda late next week (yeah....like that's going to happen).

 

Not to mention that the 12z Euro hasn't come out yet.

 

We know the GGEM is crap for tropical entities, but supposedly is does better with other features, such as the front coming through. WPC actually preferred in its Long Range Discussion for next week with regard to the front and how it absorbs Karen over the Apps.

[IsentropicLift]

We know the GGEM is crap for tropical entities, but supposedly is does better with other features, such as the front coming through. WPC actually preferred in its Long Range Discussion for next week with regard to the front and how it absorbs Karen over the Apps.

If the 12z GGEM is going to be supported by WPC then I would expect a large uptick in QPF forecasts along the eastern seaboard for late in the period.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Last time I remembered, we had a similar feature a few months ago and we had soaking rain for 2 days.

[Guest Imperator]

Last time I remembered, we had a similar feature a few months ago and we had soaking rain for 2 days.

 

 

Andrea

[Guest Imperator]

12Z Euro through 96 hours shows a weak system with a slightly more west path that the GFS. So we have the GFS on the Eastern Fringe, the NAM/UKMET/CMC on the west and the Euro somewhat in the middle but closer to the GFS track wise.

[IsentropicLift]

At least the 12z GFS ensembles seem to be pretty well centered around where the op takes it ashore. The ensemble mean is pretty well centered around the FL panhandle and the spread is not all that much.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Andrea

Yup.

[IsentropicLift]

Looks like the 12z Euro completely de-couples the two centers, sending one into Mexico and the other towards the gulf coast

 

[supermeh]

euro has nothing again.

[IsentropicLift]

Surface reflection over MX gone at hour 72 meanwhile right over the mouth of the MS river.

 

[jm1220]

euro has nothing again.

With enough shear, many outcomes are possible. This has certainly been a season for underperforming and disappointing tropical systems. Odds still favor minimal impact for most of us, IMO.

[IsentropicLift]

Hard to tell from these maps, looks like what is left of Karen phases with the trough on Tuesday. 12z GGEM esque solution FWIW. The 12z GFS keeps Karen a seperate entity until it makes it much further north.

 

[Guest Imperator]

Regardless of where and how its landfalls on the gulf coast, we need the rain. So hopefully, some of that moisture from the remnants, whether it be a stand alone low or absorbed in the cold front, can make it up here.

[IsentropicLift]

Interesting, closes off at 500mb to our west with high pressure to our north. Thinking this would bring some pretty good rains without looking at a more detailed map.

 

[forkyfork]

the euro gives us over an inch now but it's not from karen... it's from atlantic moisture being pushed west over a frontal boundary and enhancement from a weak closed low

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

the euro gives us over an inch now but it's not from karen... it's from atlantic moisture being pushed west over a frontal boundary and enhancement from a weak closed low

At this point, I'll take it.

[SnoSki14]

The pattern this month would certainly allow tropical entities to affect us with the trough out west and ridging in the east. Probably going to have to keep an eye off the SE coast as gfs was hinting before that something could spin up with strong high pressure to the north of New England extending eastward. 

[IsentropicLift]

Early 18z guidance seems to have tightened up the track cone, especially once it reaches us. Takes the Philly to NY track.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yeah....it's the NAM but the 18z run is coming in a lot better organized than 12z. Looks like the GFS through 24hrs for the little that it's worth.

This is sounding like winter already.

[IsentropicLift]

This is sounding like winter already.

I deleted the post because it quickly falls apart around 42hrs despite having a better initial appearance.

[IsentropicLift]

According to the high res radar depiction this thing is a beast right now

 

[IsentropicLift]

Still major differences in the modeling. 06z GFS dumps 2.5"+ from I-95 West and 1.00"+ for Long Island with the city in between.

 

The 00z GGEM had next to nothing. Not sure about the 00z Euro.

[Guest Imperator]

I think we may have to view the GFS as an outlier right now. Unfortunately every other model that is based on the GFS (HWRF,etc) is going to be skewed too. The othe rmodels have been pretty steady while the GFS has been all over the place.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I think we may have to view the GFS as an outlier right now. Unfortunately every other model that is based on the GFS (HWRF,etc) is going to be skewed too. The othe rmodels have been pretty steady while the GFS has been all over the place.

I think it's safe to say that we are going to get light rain showers from Monday Morning to Late Monday Night with up to 0.5" of rain possible.

[Guest Imperator]

I think it's safe to say that we are going to get light rain showers from Monday Morning to Late Monday Night with up to 0.5" of rain possible.

 

Im not disagreeing about the rain.

[IsentropicLift]

Im not disagreeing about the rain.

Let's be clear that when I talk about impacts for our region the main focus has to be on the potential for heavy rainfall.

 

As we've seen in the past, you don't need an organized tropical cyclone to bring big problems. Floyd 99' is a prime example. He was completely merged with the frontal boundry but the combination of the over runnng moisture along the front and the cyclone itself passing close the region brought major flooding to parts of PA/NJ.

 

At this point we desperatly need a good rain storm.

[Guest Imperator]

Let's be clear that when I talk about impacts for our region the main focus has to be on the potential for heavy rainfall.

 

As we've seen in the past, you don't need an organized tropical cyclone to bring big problems. Floyd 99' is a prime example. He was completely merged with the frontal boundry but the combination of the over runnng moisture along the front and the cyclone itself passing close the region brought major flooding to parts of PA/NJ.

 

At this point we desperatly need a good rain storm.

 

Agreed, we are going to be in a drought soon if this dryness continues.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Let's be clear that when I talk about impacts for our region the main focus has to be on the potential for heavy rainfall.

As we've seen in the past, you don't need an organized tropical cyclone to bring big problems. Floyd 99' is a prime example. He was completely merged with the frontal boundry but the combination of the over runnng moisture along the front and the cyclone itself passing close the region brought major flooding to parts of PA/NJ.

At this point we desperatly need a good rain storm.

Good point. Also, the 00Z Euro has 40+ mph wind gust from New Brunswick, NJ through NYC. Along with gust up to 61 mph in Central CT. Of course, all of this happening on Monday.