IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 00z ECMWF took a step towards the GFS with a more easterly track but still remains on the western side of the guidance envelop. The GFS and the GGEM both bring the center of remnant Karen nearly right up I-95 and over the area next Monday-Tuesday. The 06z GFS spit out 2-3" of rainfall and the 00z GGEM dumps the core of the rain right over most of the region. In addition some of the modeling has been showing the potential for gales at the coast. The 18z GFS yesterday with a more westerly track had gusts to 60kts at the beaches. If a more westerly track is realized this might become a major issue for the still recovering coastal areas. Of course a more easterly track could setup a nasty scenario of tropical moisture over running the frontal boundry moving in from the west. The combination could produce some inland river flooding. Overall it looks like we have some pretty good concensus for some impacts from Karen in the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Is this really necessary? The most we would be dealing with is heavy rain from any remnants. Im sure this could be covered in the October thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Is this really necessary? The most we would be dealing with is heavy rain from any remnants. Im sure this could be covered in the October thread. Is having a sepearate thread to discuss it impacting you in any way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Is this really necessary? The most we would be dealing with is heavy rain from any remnants. Im sure this could be covered in the October thread. There's the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and severe weather, and thus a separate thread wouldn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 There's the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and severe weather, and thus a separate thread wouldn't hurt. Thank you! As if we've had so much exciting weather to talk about recently. The overall impacts for this area have the potential to be moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Is this really necessary? The most we would be dealing with is heavy rain from any remnants. Im sure this could be covered in the October thread. In theory this will prevent all the Karen talk from cluttering the main thread. But since there's not much else to talk about I'm sure there will be posts in both threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I doubt we get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 karEn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I doubt we get much of anything. Tell that to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 I don't understand all the trolling of a simple thread. We've had threads before for a 3 day severe outlook that failed miserably. If all you're going to do is troll find something better to do with your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Why can I not edit the thread title anymore by editing the first post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Why can I not edit the thread title anymore by editing the first post? Hit "use full editor". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hit "use full editor". Ah thanks, it's been so long since I've needed to that, I forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Tell that to the GFS. it's impossible for a model to be wrong, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 12z GFS has a really nice setup at 500mb, looks like she might try to phase with the short wave coming through the Arklatex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 GFS gives us close to 2.5" this run. Most of it in less than 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Whenever we have tropical energy involved, we're bound to pick up some heavier rainfall so 2-3" would not surprise me at all. Of course this will all depend on where it ultimately tracks and perhaps any additional baroclinic interaction. We shall see if the Euro trends more toward the gfs or stays its own entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Specific storm threats certainly warrant a new thread. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I doubt we get much of anything. What's your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 low OHC in the gulf, increasing shear, and the euro shows under an inch with the ens mean even less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 For those interested, from the 12z guidance in so far Some 2.0"+ PWAT's pass right over the city and western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 low OHC in the gulf, increasing shear, and the euro shows under an inch with the ens mean even less With all due respect, the Euro hasn't been stellar with this system thus far. I think the chances of no impact are slim to none considering you have a tropical system coming up through the gulf and riding along a cold front. It will have a direct moisture connection from the Gulf to work with. Unless you consider 2-3" of rain in a short period with locally higher amounts a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 QPF totals for 12z GFS from Karen only KMMU - 1.47" KLGA - 2.42" KJFK - 2.33" KHPN - 2.60" Sorry but the site I use only has limited sites LGA gets 1.27" in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 With all due respect, the Euro hasn't been stellar with this system thus far. I think the chances of no impact are slim to none considering you have a tropical system coming up through the gulf and riding along a cold front. It will have a direct moisture connection from the Gulf to work with. Unless you consider 2-3" of rain in a short period with locally higher amounts a non-event. However, seasonally, the Euro has been spot on with its forecasts of non development of various waves and minimal Tropical storms...so let's see if this develops or not as it gets further into the gulf. I think the Euro forecast of not much of a system has to be considered. With that said, even a disorganized area of tropical rains could impact us given the correct track and any enhancement from a cold front etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 low OHC in the gulf, increasing shear, and the euro shows under an inch with the ens mean even less Yeah the shear is my number one concern right now. Definitely shouldn't be anything stronger than a 70-75mph cyclone at landfall, but most likely a low-mid end tropical storm. 12Z guidance seems to be leaning in the direction of the weaker Euro for landfall. Should be interesting if the Euro changes at all today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 However, seasonally, the Euro has been spot on with its forecasts of non development of various waves and minimal Tropical storms...so let's see if this develops or not as it gets further into the gulf. I think the Euro forecast of not much of a system has to be considered. With that said, even a disorganized area of tropical rains could impact us given the correct track and any enhancement from a cold front etc. It's already a 55kt Tropical Storm, significant development has occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 The cloud tops are definitly warming to the southeast of the center, meanwhile a new burst of convection appears to be taking place closer to the center. Hopefully this will lead to better organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 With all due respect, the Euro hasn't been stellar with this system thus far. I think the chances of no impact are slim to none considering you have a tropical system coming up through the gulf and riding along a cold front. It will have a direct moisture connection from the Gulf to work with. Unless you consider 2-3" of rain in a short period with locally higher amounts a non-event. With all due respect, you are bound to get burned if you keep hugging particular models while discounting all the others. Not to say one or the other will verify, but when you keep posting maps of the model that shows the result you want, as opposed to evaluating everything together (like a professional or a serious wanna-be professional would do), your credibility goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Just to note, that the 12z ggem and ukmet went back to being weak and sheared out and also way west of the GFS. Very similar to the Euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 With all due respect, you are bound to get burned if you keep hugging particular models while discounting all the others. Not to say one or the other will verify, but when you keep posting maps of the model that shows the result you want, as opposed to evaluating everything together (like a professional or a serious wanna-be professional would do), your credibility goes down. Well I have acknowledged the Euro solution, but I can't post the paid images that I have access to here. The GGEM as we all know is useless as a tropical model. What else would you prefer me to post? BTW the 12z Canadian gets the moisture up here, just delayed. Then shows a TC backing into the US coast again from Bermuda late next week (yeah....like that's going to happen). Not to mention that the 12z Euro hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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