Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 At this point it would be nice to see the low get ejected west, drift off, and eventually dissipate without landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Looks like its heading towards remnant low status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 shear gave karen the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 We can let Karen depress us, or we could follow https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone on the internet. Action pics starting, and it is daylight. Almost bed time, but I am waiting on the YouTubes. Don't know why they messed up the display on floaters on the SSD web page, but I've always been a fan of the IR2 imagery they still have for the permanent sectors. Not likely, but it'd be cool if soon to be TD Karen (hopefully they wouldn't go straight to remnant low) could landfall at the Sabine before tomorrow's cold front pushes it away, and then we could officially have had a 2013 Texas Tropical Cyclone Season. Kind of like when remnant Ivan came all the way back to the Gulf, and I could claim to be an Ivan survivor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Honestly, for such a highly sheared system with that much dry air to the west, I would expect worse. For a naked swirl, Karen has looked pretty hot all day.* Last few frames show some increased activity, even on the western side, and the convective blob has effectively been jettisoned completely off the east which would aid in any potential redevelopment near the center. If the shear subsides at all during the diurnal period, who knows, she may get her act together - at least as far as regaining tropical storm strength. *By 2013 standards, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Barely a TS at 2 per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Karen is yet another victim of the the dry Atlantic basin this year. Shear has also been a major issue. With all the hype of a busy Atlantic season I feel like a child you didn't get the toy they wanted for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Karen is doing so terribly, the models can't even seem to get a fix on her. The very far reaching positive is seeing that completely naked swirl is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Some convection is firing up near the center, which has pretty much stalled for a couple of hours per vis. So, she's not quite dead just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Some convection is firing up near the center, which has pretty much stalled for a couple of hours per vis. So, she's not quite dead just yet. looks like those storms are already getting sheared off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 looks like those storms are already getting sheared off to the east. TWC has people enjoying the nice early Autumn weather in South Louisiana. The lack of a hurricane season can't be helping their viewership... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Reading elsewhere, there seems to now be a bit of confusion and/or a more chaotic situation with perhaps a new LLC competing to take over further SE as the older center has weakened. I'm just passing this along and don't know what to believe. Recon apparently found 1004 mb well SE of the old center, which was only down to 1009 mb. A big mess? They were going to downgrade to TD but maybe not now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Nothing depresses me more than seeing that naked swirl suffering out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Nothing depresses me more than seeing that naked swirl suffering out there. Looks like a ghost floating up and out of its previously living body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 NHC is trying so hard to keep it a "tropical storm". Please just kill it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Old LLC died...new LLC tucked inside the convection to the SE...old Karen has died...all hail new Karen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 GFS puts Karen off the east coast and tries to develop her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 The well respected tropical met., "57", has declared Karen to be dead via 'Bones". May she RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Thread title change in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The well respected tropical met., "57", has declared Karen to be dead via 'Bones". May she RIP Bones must be in constant communication this season with 57. Bored out of his mind, he is I presume. Karen will not be missed, the outcome was foreseen a week before she was born that Karen would be DOA and sheared. Didn't even make landfall on the Gulf coast (as a TS and probably as a TC) and its early Oct. Incomprehensible how bad this and the Epac seasons are. The Weather Network here in Canada was hyping this a few days ago the same level as Issac, Igor, and Ike while I was watching in disbelief that they vouched for it. They should have just remembered that its 2013 and gave up instead of making excuses why its important and that it might be a hurricane at some point . Well respected mets had to put on a brave face and pretend that it was something to note when it was in fact less impressive than Andrea back in June. Yes, lets declare a state of emergency for the incoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Bones must be in constant communication this season with 57. Bored out of his mind, he is I presume. Karen will not be missed, the outcome was foreseen a week before she was born that Karen would be DOA and sheared. Didn't even make landfall on the Gulf coast (as a TS and probably as a TC) and its early Oct. Incomprehensible how bad this and the Epac seasons are. The Weather Network here in Canada was hyping this a few days ago the same level as Issac, Igor, and Ike while I was watching in disbelief that they vouched for it. They should have just remembered that its 2013 and gave up instead of making excuses why its important and that it might be a hurricane at some point . Well respected mets had to put on a brave face and pretend that it was something to note when it was in fact less impressive than Andrea back in June. Yes, lets declare a state of emergency for the incoming rain. Sorry, I missed your call on Karen last week....link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Is it my imagination, or is the remnant circulation slinking SE toward the remaining convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 NHC has declared Karen dead. Discussion link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 If more people in The weather community practiced sound meteorology instead of modelology this result would have been less of a "surprise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 If more people in The weather community practiced sound meteorology instead of modelology this result would have been less of a "surprise". Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Agreed. ...and no disrespect meant for the mets on this forum who are great at what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 If more people in The weather community practiced sound meteorology instead of modelology this result would have been less of a "surprise". Also agree....however, there are certain parameters (especially wrt intensity forecasting) that are inherently more difficult to seperate meteorology from the models...and shear values are one such parameter. Models (as I've always said) are just tools of the trade...some have more value than others, depending upon the task assigned. And some tasks are more or less dependent on the use of such tools and therefore, the various sucess rates of completing such tasks (in this case 3 day progs of shear). That said, even with tools, 2-3 day progs (with or without the use of models) is difficult in certain situations (Karen, in the GOM, being one of those). The llv/mlv dry air, was a bit more easy to forecast using meteorology vs. models (GFDL and it's respective ensembles were consistently LF'ing a 90kt. cane). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Most of the general public had forgot that it even was hurricane season until Karen. Karen was a nice reminder we were in midst of a hurricane season and a pathetic one who's suckage is undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Isn't this only the third named system to have died in the gulf without landfall? Henri, '79 Alberto, '82 Karen. '13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Seeing how the GFDL ensembles were still clustered tightly on a South Louisiana landfall with solutions between a strong TS and a low end Cat 2 hurricane, even as the LLC was being exposed when Karen was North of the Yucatan, well, I think the GFDL ensemble perturbation system needs work, and, for that matter, something should be changed in the base model. But that is Monday Morning Quarterbacking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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