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Remnant low Karen

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

not sure what to think of this gfs solution, moves it nw thru 42hrs and is still south of la, then moves it almost due east at 48hr as it begins to strengthen and gets to 991mb thru 60 still in the gulf moving east towards fl.  just ridiculously slow this run.

 

EDIT: well one thing is for sure, gfs thinks this thing will really get going once it makes the turn ne, goes from 998mb at 48hr to 984mb at 72hr, still offshore florida.

 

EDIT 2: landfall finally at 78 near apalachee bay.  988mb 78kt winds at 900mb. 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Convection has started making a recent comeback near and just east of the center. This graphic shows that shear is on the decrease to the west of the cyclone, however dry air is still a major factor. Perhaps if Karen can make it far enough NW into the northern Gulf like the GFS shows and then makes that eastern jog giving it a few more hours over water, it will have enough time to recover.

 

wg8sht.GIF

 

rb-animated.gif

 

wv-animated.gif

 

One interesting note is that at quite a few of the 06z statistical hurricane models have Karen reaching hurricane status and peaking in intensity between 60 and 72 hours.

 

al122013_inten.png

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

Posted
Posted

SHouldnt the GFS been consider an outlier now? It's runs have proven very erratic the past 24 hours while the other global guidance has been much more stable. Unfortunately, guidance that is run off the GFS is going to be skewed too. Now is probably the time to gear toward more actual forecasting and climo than modelcasting. 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

SHouldnt the GFS been consider an outlier now? It's runs have proven very erratic the past 24 hours while the other global guidance has been much more stable. Unfortunately, guidance that is run off the GFS is going to be skewed too. Now is probably the time to gear toward more actual forecasting and climo than modelcasting. 

We stil have quite a bit of model spread in terms of track and intensity. Not to mention that it's very possible that Karen, being the naked swirl that she currently is, doesn't even survive the rest of the trip to the coast. Most of the guidance that brings something appreciable have Karen at least maintaining herself long enough to reorganize late in the forecast period.

 

Of course for the tight core snobs, Karen is just a yawn.

 

As is the case with most of these events, heavy rainfall looks to be the main threat.

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

Posted
Posted

We stil have quite a bit of model spread in terms of track and intensity. Not to mention that it's very possible that Karen, being the naked swirl that she currently is, doesn't even survive the rest of the trip to the coast. Most of the guidance that brings something appreciable have Karen at least maintaining herself long enough to reorganize late in the forecast period.

 

Of course for the tight core snobs, Karen is just a yawn.

 

As is the case with most of these events, heavy rainfall looks to be the main threat.

 

 

I was speaking more about the GFS ping-ponging around the gulf coast in terms of landfall locations among its runs the past 24h. If remnants do get up north, heavy rain is a likely outcome (and needed in the NYC area.)

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
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I was speaking more about the GFS ping-ponging around the gulf coast in terms of landfall locations among its runs the past 24h. If remnants do get up north, heavy rain is a likely outcome (and needed in the NYC area.)

landfall really hasn't been all that different in the past 4-5 runs of the gfs, speed has.  i still think this has a shot of being a landfalling cane on the fl panhandle in ~72hrs.  gfs has handled the storm pretty good so far showing it being sheared and weak up to this point.  gfs shows the storm making the gradual right turn in the next 24hrs and then that is when it really has a chance to ramp up as convection is able to wrap around the center.  00z had karen at 988mb at landfall and 06z has karen at 993mb.  it will be one of those systems where it waits until it is close to the coast to look its best.  gfs has also been consistent with a high end ts/possible weak cane at landfall with 900mb winds at >70kts.  

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

landfall really hasn't been all that different in the past 4-5 runs of the gfs, speed has.  i still think this has a shot of being a landfalling cane on the fl panhandle in ~72hrs.  gfs has handled the storm pretty good so far showing it being sheared and weak up to this point.  gfs shows the storm making the gradual right turn in the next 24hrs and then that is when it really has a chance to ramp up as convection is able to wrap around the center.  00z had karen at 988mb at landfall and 06z has karen at 993mb.  it will be one of those systems where it waits until it is close to the coast to look its best.  gfs has also been consistent with a high end ts/possible weak cane at landfall with 900mb winds at >70kts.  

Very doubtful we will see a cane from Karen. With squalls well to the E there may be a gust or two near 65-70 mph at best. And that is being generous and likely offshore. Karen would need to wrap deep convection entirely around its center and maintain that convection from here on out. That isn't going to happen with this storm.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Very doubtful we will see a cane from Karen. With squalls well to the E there may be a gust or two near 65-70 mph at best. And that is being generous and likely offshore. Karen would need to wrap deep convection entirely around its center and maintain that convection from here on out. That isn't going to happen with this storm.

 

Steve, I agree. I think a cane is unlikely though there could be a few gust offshore to 65 or so.  Still too much shear.  Of course, none of us has much skill at forecasting intensity of tropical systems so we could be wrong.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

AFTER BEING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE CYCLONE. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...AND BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF AIRCRAFT
DATA THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH MODERATE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
THE SHEAR DOES LESSEN...EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...DEEP
CONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...BY 48 HOURS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 9 OR 10 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE
QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE STRUCTURE OF KAREN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAKER SHALLOWER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED
MORE TOWARD THE LEFT BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE A DEEPER MORE
VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE WOULD TURN NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY DUE
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF
KAREN AND THE CONTINUED SHEAR...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT WITH LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE TURN OCCURS AND
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. AT 36
HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF KAREN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS
ALONG THE COAST...IS LOW.

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR KAREN AND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THESE DATA WILL BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE STORM.

GIVEN THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING TREND AND THE REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS LIKELKY THAT KAREN WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 25.6N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 26.6N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 27.7N  90.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 28.6N  90.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 29.8N  88.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 33.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  08/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

vis_lalo-animated.gif

 

Looking significantly better this morning and that wasn't a hard thing to do. 

 

Not a naked swirl anymore.  Not NC-17.  Now a topless Rated R swirl.

 

Most of the very well clustered GFDL ensembles still seem to think Karen will be a cane sometime tomorrow...  I am starting to wonder about the GFDL ensembles uesefulness as a forecast tool, but we'll know tomorrow whether they are right.

 

GTE_KAREN12L_2013100406_track_and_intens

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

Posted
Posted

The Euro actually would seem to indicate that Karen has seen its maximum shear.  Upper level flow weakens through today and early Saturday, and then as the system turns more ENE it's motion becomes much better aligned with the upper flow even as it increases, at least in the model.  Of course, dry air west of the system still a potential issue...

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted

beginning to make the slight turn north so the storms are finally able to pop over the center.  12z model cycle should be interesting as they will have the latest data ingested.  

Convection trying to form over the top of the center in the last frame or so, but still not looking all that healthy. I bet if it was under low shear, we would have a hurricane easily by now.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

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