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Remnant low Karen


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We'll see when there's a dropsonde, but yeah so far pressure actually down a couple of mbs on extrap...

 

1002 mb but the winds aren't as exciting as this morning.

 

Stronger winds are probably going to be on the east and southeast sides where there's better convection.  Recon is only through NW quad.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3 seeall.png
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 18:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°56'N 88°16'W (22.9333N 88.2667W) viewmap.png
B. Center Fix Location: 154 miles (248 km) to the NW (323°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 41kts (From the E at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 455m (1,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 18:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 18:36:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

 

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pressure starting to respond to the winds, gfs had the center surrounded by convection in ~36 hrs so if she can hang on until then we can see her really take off as she approaches the fl coast.  i could see a ~85mph cane at landfall if these winds can hang on and pressure keeps dropping as the gfs shows.

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000
URNT12 KWBC 032022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 03/20:05:51Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
088 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 3082 m
D. 54 kt
E. 015 deg 22 nm
F. 125 deg 45 kt
G. 015 deg 22 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 14 C / 2440 m
J. 17 C / 2443 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0412A KAREN OB 04
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE
MAX FL WIND 45 KT 015/22 20:00:26Z

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^^  Amusing, someone is on a multi-Twitter rant about hurricane watches being up for Karen.  He does have a point, sort of, about Sandy, but they did change that policy after the fact and rules are rules.


 


 


Not saying it is right, but latest GFDL ensemble looks reasonable, anyway...


 


GTE_KAREN12L_2013100312_track_and_intens


 


Model spread isn't really that huge, more like some fairly decent sized cities, like New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola not all *that* far from each other, IMHO


 


KAREN12L.2013100312.fsct.png


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^^  Amusing, someone is on a multi-Twitter rant about hurricane watches being up for Karen.  He does have a point, sort of, about Sandy, but they did change that policy after the fact and rules are rules.

 

Not saying it is right, but latest GFDL ensemble looks reasonable, anyway...

 

Model spread isn't really that huge, more like some fairly decent sized cities, like New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola not all *that* far from each other, IMHO

 

Talk about an under-dispersive ensemble!

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Earl 1998 made it to Cat 2 and later 985 mb on a somewhat similar track despite being one of the fugliest sheared pieces of garbage in the history of the tropics.

 

I remember Earl... that was actually a pretty fun storm on the coast despite it looking like crap...it certainly wasn't crap in terms of impacts.

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Karen is really trying to fire convection near the COC.. but you can really see the effects of the shear and the dry air with the partially exposed center.

 

rgb_lalo-animated.gif

 

Looks like it spit out a nice arc cloud.

 

And judging by the cloud streamers at 93-95W, this is going to have a tough time wrapping up.

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The GFDL ensmbles are interesting as well. Likely too strong, but worth noting. Anybody have any verification stats on how the GFDL ensembles have performed?

 

GFE_maxwind_boxplots_KAREN12L_2013100318

 

They have done terribly this year. They are prone to overdeveloping storms. I don't have quantitative verification statistics.. but I would imagine that the verification levels would be pretty low, at least in terms of intensity.

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