Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Useless Wiki fact of the day. According to folk legend, the name Casiguran was obtained from the word Kasiguruhan which means "safety" or "assurance". Safety means defense - a fortress or sanctuary for sailing ships during stormy weather. Another legend says that if an unmarried stranger comes to the place, he unavoidably falls in love with someone and gets married and most of the time stays for good. Casiguran was founded by the Spanish Missionaries on June 13, 1609. I miss widespread -80ºC cloud tops in the Atlantic. (Karen had an hour or two of -80º tops, and it still died...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 JTWC upped the peak to 90kt before landfall... course still staying steady towards Aurora Province.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 JTWC upped the peak to 90kt before landfall... course still staying steady towards Aurora Province.... Interesting, considering 12z GFS and 12z Euro are pretty unimpressed. Looking at sat imagery it looks pretty decent, though. MW is fine as well...no signs of RI soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 10 meter winds at 48 hours (landfall by 60) show what looks like 60 knot 10 meter winds. Could be 65 knots. Map scale and color scale make it hard to tell. Impossible to tell exactly where it landfalls. Casiguran looks somewhat sheltered by the San Ildefonso peninsula, Baler has 'surfing beaches' marked just to its North on a different province map I looked up on the Internet. No idea of topography or surge. Having a veteran area chaser with iCyclone sounds like a good idea, as insurance. Although I'd guess parts of Pacific Mexico probably have similar topography. (Not from personal knowledge of either Pacific Mexico or Eastern Luzon) I think Nari/Santi is developing an eyewall SW of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The ECMWF shows a significant ramp up in easterly shear beyond the next 24 hours from the larger 92W... that looks to be the only potential thorn in this system's side. However if Nari significant intensifies before the shear really picks up (a possible solution) the storm might turn out to be much stronger at landfall than the ECMWF is currently projecting. I am not even going to acknowledge the 12z GFS, I just don't think its a realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 10 meter winds at 48 hours (landfall by 60) show what looks like 60 knot 10 meter winds. Could be 65 knots. Map scale and color scale make it hard to tell. Impossible to tell exactly where it landfalls. Casiguran looks somewhat sheltered by the San Ildefonso peninsula, Baler has 'surfing beaches' marked just to its North on a different province map I looked up on the Internet. No idea of topography or surge. Having a veteran area chaser with iCyclone sounds like a good idea, as insurance. Although I'd guess parts of Pacific Mexico probably have similar topography. (Not from personal knowledge of either Pacific Mexico or Eastern Luzon) I think Nari/Santi is developing an eyewall SW of the center. just for perspective, here's Baler Bay... there may be a couple of nice resorts that they could take shelter at in case something goes wrong; and the town isn't far from the beach either... there's also a fish port on the southern end of the bay... however, compared to what they had in Okinawa, there aren't a lot of choices here in terms of a safe spot for hunkering down and filming... and that's a good point about Casiguran, the peninsula might shelter the town from the strongest winds, and the roads leading to it might be inundated by the surge... meanwhile, Baler has two major connections so they shouldn't have any significant problems getting out of the town after the storm... if they have time, they could go to the PAGASA observatory just south of Baler and hunker down there... they have the new doppler radar from Japan so they have can have direct access to that lol... they usually let people in from what i heard (although probably not for long duration).. and it's at 175amsl, atop a hill, so Josh may not like that... that's pretty much what i can think of; aside from Baler and Casiguran, there aren't any towns there that I would recommend to them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Hey, Ed and Patrick-- thanks for the info-- it's awesome! Yeah, the projected landfall looks pretty chaseable! James has chased in Luzon a few times and he was feeling good about it-- that this is a navigable zone for us. I'm heading to TPE this morning-- then, if we pull the trigger, heading to MNL from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The ECMWF shows a significant ramp up in easterly shear beyond the next 24 hours from the larger 92W... that looks to be the only potential thorn in this system's side. However if Nari significant intensifies before the shear really picks up (a possible solution) the storm might turn out to be much stronger at landfall than the ECMWF is currently projecting. I am not even going to acknowledge the 12z GFS, I just don't think its a realistic solution. 18z GFS acknowledges that 12z was full of it...it's more in line with other forecasts...decent cyclone is modeled, peaks around cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Looks like we have a core developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 TS Nari (Santi) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westerly turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to be over the Central Philippine Sea...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning, Nari (Santi) will make landfall over Aurora somewhere along the towns of Casiguran and Baler between 6:00 to 8:00 am. SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 2 TY as it bears down the coast of Aurora...prepares to make landfall...about 45 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 12: 16.1N 122.5E @ 165kph]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 0z GFS confirms track and it peaks a bit stronger...967mb, which would probably translate to a mid/high end Cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Hey, guys! Nice to see the usual crew here. Just landed in Taipei! Flying to Manila really early tomorrow, where James and I are meeting up and heading N. James has arranged a car and driver for us. It might sound fancy, but this is how it's done there. I feel like the cyclone is slowly coming together, and I dig how the JMA has finally come into line and is showing a typhoon. Yesterday they were peaking it at 50 kt! I was like, wtf?? (Thanks to Phil for confirming that I wasn't going crazy. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 You have to be hard core to want to come here in the midst of severe weather or for typhoon chasing. Widespread flooding and distress are easily triggered. Good luck with your chase...be sure to load up on bottled water and pesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 You have to be hard core to want to come here in the midst of severe weather or for typhoon chasing. Widespread flooding and distress are easily triggered. Good luck with your chase...be sure to load up on bottled water and pesos. Oh, he does, I can attest to that... hopefully they are the correct pesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Josh on track in Luzon to intercept a strengthening Nari, probably borderline 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 With Typhoon Nari already at category three intensity, it is very likely that this storm is going to produce the most intense winds Josh has ever experienced to date-not simply the strongest wind gusts he will have encountered during the two previous Typhoon intercepts. Based on nearby obs and James' video, they have already been able to experience peak wind gusts upwards of 85 knots (100 mph) in the SW eyewall of Typhoon Danas, not to mention some of the most incredible rainfall rates I've ever seen! With "Nari", I will be very surprised if they aren't able to position themselves where they will at least experience wind gusts exceeding 100 knots-likely quite a bit higher! With that in mind, it's safe to say that I'm eagerly looking forward to video of what will likely be the most impressive Josh has ever captured on film. I strongly suspect Typhoon Nari will continue to intensify, and might even be pushing category four intensity at landfall. Consequently, I am praying first and foremost for the safety of both Josh and James, as well as all the others, in the path of this very dangerous storm! Good luck guys, and please be extra careful with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 finally the site's back!! can't wait to hear from Josh.. JTWC upped the current intensity to 100kt although looks like the eye is struggling to "appear" so to speak... microwave looks pretty good though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It has excellent outflow, high OHC, light vertical shear, and a moist environment. As a result, I suspect it will continue to strengthen a little more, baring the fairly unpredictable onset of an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The outflow isn't quite so impressive in the eastern quadrant where easterly shear has increased and appears to be restricting the outflow. This also explains why the eye is having difficulty closing off on that side. Its producing some very deep convection, but I think its reached its peak intensity and will battle the 15-20 knot shear as it approaches landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The outflow isn't quite so impressive in the eastern quadrant where easterly shear has increased and appears to be restricting the outflow. This also explains why the eye is having difficulty closing off on that side. Its producing some very deep convection, but I think its reached its peak intensity and will battle the 15-20 knot shear as it approaches landfall. Excellent post and I completely concur with your assessment. I've noticed an increase in the shear during the past hour as you alluded to...and it doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did an hour ago. If it maintains its current intensity, and they can get into the RMW, they could theoretically see peak wind gusts upwards of 115 knots. As we both know, a category three hurricane, Typhoon in this case, is a very powerful storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Currently calm winds and light showers here a bit SE of Manila. Some vivid lightning and thunder rolled through last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Based on the latest infrared satellite imagery, it appears that the convective outflow being generated by TS Wipha (to the east of Nari) has contributed to an increase in the wind shear on the eastern flank of Nari-which is restricting the outflow in that particular quadrant. On the other hand, the outflow remains fairly well established in the other quadrants of the storm. The cloud tops within the CDO have also cooled during the past hour. With all the other aforementioned factors remaining the same, Typhoon Nari is currently in a general steady state trend, relative to its overall intensity. It now appears that any fluctuation in intensity, prior to landfall, will likely be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Latest Infrared satellite image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Eye is in radar range. Looks further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Satellite- look at all the -80C cloud tops. One frame, not a loop, per connectivity issues over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Scott, have you been in contact with them this morning? The last text I got from him was at 4:24 Eastern/3:24 central. I sent him a text last at 6 Central but haven't gotten anything back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Scott, have you been in contact with them this morning? The last text I got from him was at 4:24 Eastern/3:24 central. I sent him a text last at 6 Central but haven't gotten anything back. Nothing since he was in Manila and headed towards Baler. Left a message on facebook plus he just updated a bit ago. Think they need to go further S but don't know if it's feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Their are no roads between bayler and ding and the topography is less than ideal. Plus the other that Josh said this morning in the facebook post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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