andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sorry for the large image but I figured I better get a shot of this...spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like the worst is over for them. That being the case, I better try to get a little sleep, myself. Congrats Josh and company on a very successful intercept! I'm also most thankful you got through it safely, as well. I also want to wish everyone else a good rest of the night and great week ahead! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Around half an hour now that they've been in the eyewall. It (the eyewall) actually is becoming more robust looking with each new scan. Its a nice change from what typically happens during impacts, weakening. -fb page Must be the best Internet securely-wise on the planet for it to still be working after this. Just posting an update on FB while this powerful typhoon hits us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Josh could have definitely clipped the eye based on radar and satellite. Sat image at 4:01 PM JST Considering all the success that Josh is having in the WPAC, he might never come back to the ATL side at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Josh hasn't called yet. I'm heading to bed, I'll post something from my phone if he calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like they are fine: James Reynolds @typhoonfury9m Extremely intense south eyewall absolutely raked us in Oku, blinding whiteout at times. All safe, back to Naha to work video #typhoon #Danas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 James Reynolds @typhoonfury2h Going through footage now from #Danas, resembles a giant atmospheric washing machine. Hard hard filming conditions, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Nice http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mst13yIy38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 From Jame's video it looks like they we're spared by the strongest winds due to the ridge that was to the west of them. Looks like a washout though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Now that you are still fresh and motivated, and before doing Taiwan in 10 days...new basin? NE coast of India for example? Looks like an intense microcane in 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like they were oh so close to experiencing a stadium effect eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Hi guys! James here, first off thank you all so much for the kind words of support. That was a real nail biter of a chase but given our limitations (running out of land) we're immensely grateful of what we managed to experience. The W Pacific is a really tough basin and a lot can go wrong but Josh certainly picked a good time to visit, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Hi guys! James here, first off thank you all so much for the kind words of support. That was a real nail biter of a chase but given our limitations (running out of land) we're immensely grateful of what we managed to experience. The W Pacific is a really tough basin and a lot can go wrong but Josh certainly picked a good time to visit, that's for sure! Dual disc DVD on sale in time for the holidays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Dual disc DVD on sale in time for the holidays?Jesus, Ed. Just buy a Chromecast for $35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Jesus, Ed. Just buy a Chromecast for $35. What is a Chromecast? Will it play on a DVD player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 What is a Chromecast? Will it play on a DVD player?Do you have wifi, a computer, and an HDMI port on your TV? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 nice job guys and glad it all went well. The PAC really spins up some awesome looking typhoons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Do you have wifi, a computer, and an HDMI port on your TV? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromecast The device was announced on July 24, 2013 and was made available for purchase on the same day for US$35, along with a Netflix promotion that provided free access for three months.[3] As of October 7, 2013, Chromecast is available only in the United States and Google hasn't announced any plans for a release date for any other countries . Not like I'm stuck in 2007 or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Hi guys! James here, first off thank you all so much for the kind words of support. That was a real nail biter of a chase but given our limitations (running out of land) we're immensely grateful of what we managed to experience. The W Pacific is a really tough basin and a lot can go wrong but Josh certainly picked a good time to visit, that's for sure! What would say the max speeds were that you guys observed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 What would say the max speeds were that you guys observed? It was hard to say because the conditions were near whiteout, but we were thinking peak gusts in the 100-kt range. There were factors affecting the winds both ways. On the one hand, the wind was coming right off the open water. On the other hand, we had some buildings blocking it, there was some complex topography in the region, and we were on the left side of a fast-moving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 It was hard to say because the conditions were near whiteout, but we were thinking peak gusts in the 100-kt range. There were factors affecting the winds both ways. On the one hand, the wind was coming right off the open water. On the other hand, we had some buildings blocking it, there was some complex topography in the region, and we were on the left side of a fast-moving storm. 100 knots is very respectable! While the things you pointed out obviously deprived you of the full brunt it still looks intense in that video, it probably also adds to the fun factor a bit when the winds are just below the "scary" threshold and you can play around in them. Congratsto both of you for a great week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 100 knots is very respectable! While the things you pointed out obviously deprived you of the full brunt it still looks intense in that video, it probably also adds to the fun factor a bit when the winds are just below the "scary" threshold and you can play around in them. Congratsto both of you for a great week! Awww, thanks! It was a good week and we are really psyched about it! Thanks to you and the other dudes in this thread for the support and diagrams and obs-- it was awesome. Whenever I'm on the road chasing, I come into my AmWx chase thread and it's the fastest way for me to get the latest on what's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 So, the next possible chase is what will be Typhoon NARI in Luzon. The JTWC brings the system ashore Saturday morning with winds of over 70 kt, moving straight W at brisk pace, at a clean angle toward the coast-- my kinda cyclone-- and the prognostic discussions mentions possible RI. Climatologically, October is peak season for major Luzon landfalls, so this could be red-meat material. Given this, James and I had a strategy discussion in Naha this morning-- to plan. He's heading back to Hong Kong now-- I'm gonna chill in Naha for another day or so. If the pieces come together with NARI, we're going to meet in Manila late Thursday or early Friday and head N from there. James has chased in the Philippines before, which is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 So, the next possible chase is what will be Typhoon NARI in Luzon. The JTWC brings the system ashore Saturday morning with winds of over 70 kt, moving straight W at brisk pace, at a clean angle toward the coast-- my kinda cyclone-- and the prognostic discussions mentions possible RI. Climatologically, October is peak season for major Luzon landfalls, so this could be red-meat material. Given this, James and I had a strategy discussion in Naha this morning-- to plan. He's heading back to Hong Kong now-- I'm gonna chill in Naha for another day or so. If the pieces come together with NARI, we're going to meet in Manila late Thursday or early Friday and head N from there. James has chased in the Philippines before, which is awesome. This one looks like it should be strengthening steadily through landfall. CIMSS analysis suggests that the vorticity signature is still elongated slightly to the west into that region of enhanced convection. I suspect 24W will tighten up rapidly once that convection wanes. Only real factor working against it is the expected acceleration in forward motion which would limit time for strengthening before landfall. Latest ASCAT looks good too... very symmetric for a TS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 This one looks like it should be strengthening steadily through landfall. CIMSS analysis suggests that the vorticity signature is still elongated slightly to the west into that region of enhanced convection. I suspect 24W will tighten up rapidly once that convection wanes. Only real factor working against it is the expected acceleration in forward motion which would limit time for strengthening before landfall. Latest ASCAT looks good too... very symmetric for a TS: Hey, thanks, icebreaker! I hadn't seen that ASCAT and I'm actually kinda surprised by it! Looks awesome. The JTWC and JMA are both being kind of conservative on development, with JTWC calling for 70 kt (1-min) and JMA calling for only 50 kt (10-min) prior to reaching Luzon. These forecasts seem low to me, given climo (cyclones really bomb out in this area, and Oct is the month for major Luzon landfalls), the really solid convection, and the fact that there are no obvious inhibiting factors. I'm no forecaster, but it just seems a little low to me, We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Hey, thanks, icebreaker! I hadn't seen that ASCAT and I'm actually kinda surprised by it! Looks awesome. The JTWC and JMA are both being kind of conservative on development, with JTWC calling for 70 kt (1-min) and JMA calling for only 50 kt (10-min) prior to reaching Luzon. These forecasts seem low to me, given climo (cyclone really bomb out in this area, and Oct is the month for major Luzon landfalls), the really solid convection, and the fact that there are no obvious inhibiting factors. I'm no forecaster, but it just seems a little low to me, We'll see... You are not crazy Josh, both of those forecasts are going to bust horribly on the low side. Nari had been lacking inner core convection, but the last 6-12 hours there has been some substantial structural changes with a formative inner core developing in response the deep convection close to the center. The combination of very high SSTs, very high OHC, very moist atmosphere, low vertical wind shear, and the fact that convection is already organizing the inner core screams we are probably about to enter a period of RI. The one fly in the ointment here might be the convective organization of a budding Monsoon Depression (92W) to its east. That system is much larger in areal extent, and if it becomes more convectively active, it could induce some easterly shear. However, I see no signs of that happening in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Filipino met agency calling it 'Santi', The use their own names. "SANTI" has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move towards Luzon. Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 470 km East of Virac, Catanduanes Coordinates: 14.5°N, 129.0°E Strength: Maximum winds of 65 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 80 kph Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 11 kph Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:240 km Northeast of Virac, CatanduanesFriday evening:230 km East of Baler, AuroraSaturday evening:expected to be in the vicinity of Dupax, Nueva Vizcaya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 omg, i wish i was there!! enjoy your stay... anyway, looks like Nari (Santi) will be making landfall in a relatively less remote area in Luzon... the consensus would probably bring the center near Casiguran which is a fairly-sized town of about 25k people... if it lands somewhat further south, there's Baler which has about 35k people... both towns are connected by a national highway although you gotta be wary about landslides and being stuck there for maybe a day after it passes... they do clear the roads in a timely fashion so i won't worry about getting stuck for more than a day or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The fast/straight west path towards Luzon is not supported by the GFS...the 12z GFS interacts with a low to it's NE, slowing it down and doing a partial Fujiwhara, so it dives SW and weakens before landfall. Hopefully a much stronger Nari would render this unlikely. I'm not that bullish, but certainly more bullish than the JMA or JTWC (85kts 1 min at landfall is my guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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