Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 With each passing hour, it's looking increasingly more likely that they will experience the SW eyewall. Still going to be an excruciatingly close call either way. Still can't completely rule out the unlikely prospect of even catching a portion of the eye. At this point, I suspect they'd be pretty happy with catching at least a portion of the SW eyewall. Looking at radar animation, going to be close. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Soo close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That left eyewall is so close. Get ready Josh... it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Definite westward wobble the last 30 minutes... eyewall just about onshore. Just another 5-10 minutes before all hell breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Ugh. Such a nail biter. I'm sure I'm accounting for a few percentage points on the server load on the JMA server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 973 mb.. Huddled in a stairwell, can't come out. Call quality was bad. Told them the eyewall is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Any minute. Expect next update will show part of eyewall on NE tip of Okinawa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Ugh. Such a nail biter. I'm sure I'm accounting for a few percentage points on the server load on the JMA server. As long as it continues on the same heading for the next 30 minutes (no major N wobble) it looks like they will get in the SW eyewall. They are just due E of the strongest echoes in the E eyewall and given the storm's motion, this should put them in the direct path of the worst of the SW eyewall within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like they are now currently in the SW eyewall, and should remain in the SW eyewall for the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 They are now (as of 1535 JST) in the eyewall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Success... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I bet the winds are just ripping in from the N and through that valley right now.. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like this is no grazing, they are getting the full brunt of the SW eyewall currently. The storm's slightly more W than expected track might even let them clip the very SW edge of the eye as well. Should be an amazing data grab. Since the pressure was at 978 hPa (metric units ) an hour ago, I think we are going to hear about a remarkable wind story due to the expected minimum central pressure expected to be around 935 hPa. Thats a pretty remarkable pressure gradient. I am assuming you have no communication with Josh right now James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like this is no grazing, they are getting the full brunt of the SW eyewall currently. The storm's slightly more W than expected track might even let them clip the very SW edge of the eye as well. Should be an amazing data grab. Since the pressure was at 978 hPa (metric units ) an hour ago, I think we are going to hear about a remarkable wind story due to the expected minimum central pressure expected to be around 935 hPa. Thats a pretty remarkable pressure gradient. I am assuming you have no communication with Josh right now James Nope. Even the last time I talked to him (41 min ago), before the eyewall, the connection was crackly and I think he said the pressure was 973mb. I can't even imagine what is going on right now, armageddon is my closest guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The heaviest convection of the SW eyewall is sitting right over their locality, according to the 1550 JST radar image. I suspect this may be the time that corresponds to the peak conditions they experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The heaviest convection of the SW eyewall is sitting right over their locality, according to the 1550 JST radar image. I suspect this may be the time that corresponds to the peak conditions they experience. Yep they have taken a direct hit... the actual SW portion of the eye might even clip them. They really hit the jackpot with this storm and I hope they aren't getting more than they bargained for! Hope all these images aren't taxing their bandwidth (they should be relatively low res). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Awesome image! I'm sure they will appreciate you posting it for them and for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wow! Check out the radar reflectivity for 1605 JST! That's the peak I suspect for them. Edit: I'm on my phone. Otherwise, I'd post the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Awesome image! I'm sure they will appreciate you posting it for them and for posterity. Haha I think it was actually James that mentioned how easy it was to overlay images on Google Earth as long as you could line up the land and lat/lon coordinates. Outside of flying to Yoron-jima (the tiny island that's now in the eye of Danas) Josh and James put themselves in the absolute best position for this system. Given the small size and the curvature of the system's track as it rounds the mid-level ridge, this is a remarkable achievement. Regardless of what conditions they are facing now, they couldn't have done a better job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I suspect if Josh poked his head out of his hidey-hole he could see the clearing of the eye just across the harbor. The eye is no less than a mile or two from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I suspect if Josh poked his head out of his hidey-hole he could see the clearing of the eye just across the harbor. The eye is no less than a mile or two from them. Just off the last few frames, it looks like the edge of the eye will just miss them... meaning they will continue to get absolutely hammered by the SW eyewall. I am a bit worried of their location now looking at the terrain. They are in a pretty exposed area thats susceptible to wind funneling given the terrain (which could further enhance the extreme N winds they are experiencing as all of the winds are forced through a smaller surface area. The relatively shallow bay just offshore also tends to be a favorable configuration to enhance storm surge (think like Mobile Bay, AL). I sure hope they are ok where they set up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wow! Check out the radar reflectivity for 1605 JST! That's the peak I suspect for them. Edit: I'm on my phone. Otherwise, I'd post the image. Yeah, that probably was a swift hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Just off the last few frames, it looks like the edge of the eye will just miss them... meaning they will continue to get absolutely hammered by the SW eyewall. I am a bit worried of their location now looking at the terrain. They are in a pretty exposed area thats susceptible to wind funneling given the terrain (which could further enhance the extreme N winds they are experiencing as all of the winds are forced through a smaller surface area. The relatively shallow bay just offshore also tends to be a favorable configuration to enhance storm surge (think like Mobile Bay, AL). I sure hope they are ok where they set up shop. They are at that school with the red roof near the harbor on the west side. I warned them about the funneling effect before the eyewall and the fact that they were in a surge prone place. Josh said he felt comfortable in the location that they were in. I'm not there, so I trust his judgement, but he can't say I didn't warn him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Around half an hour now that they've been in the eyewall. It (the eyewall) actually is becoming more robust looking with each new scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Yeah, that probably was a swift hammering. Cool...thanks for posting that image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 After a period of violent, whiteout conditions, we seemed to clip the eye around 4:15 or 4:20 pm. It calmed considerably, then the wind completely reversed within a minute. (Local topography might have played a role.) Pressure's been steady around 953 mb for 10 or 15 minutes, and we're alternating between calms and big, roaring gusts. I think we're skating the edge of the eye still. -fb page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like the wind should be shifting to them with more of a westerly component (should be NW now). Looks like they have another 30 minutes of eyewall conditions before they fall back into the moat surrounding the eyewall they mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Good to hear they are okay, first and foremost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Good to hear they are okay, first and foremost! Yep... looks like if they still have internet connection they are doing ok! I wonder if mountains are now blocking some of the stronger winds now that the bulk of the eyewall is N of their location. My bet when they are finally able to tell the full story is that the first 10-15 minutes of the eyewall was more intense than the last 10-15 minutes they are currently experiencing because of the terrain blockage impact of the NW flow vs. a more true N direction. While radar suggests the eye didn't make it to the island, Josh's facebook account probably means it was only miles away and knocking on their doorstep. His account seems very similar to what he described in the Karl chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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