ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Have to be careful, those last frames are forecasts not actual radar images. Still has a good westward component as of 12:20. The jog to the north occurs on the forecast frames. Thanks for pointing that out! I didn't notice that beforehand. That obviously makes a significant difference, as you noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Typhoon is about 5 miles sw of forecast track according to Joint Typhoon Center, current motion put Josh and company in western eyewall. Radar starting to pick up entire eye, it's a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Typhoon is about 15 miles sw of forecast track according to Joint Typhoon Center, current motion put Josh and company in western eyewall. Radar starting to pick up entire eye, it's a beast. You're not kidding. http://imageshack.us/a/img820/3872/gu9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm not sure why this thread isn't getting close to the same amount of attention as his Dean 2007 (and other chases) had gotten. Good luck Josh, and stay safe! What an amazing journey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Remember josh is on a mobile network. Link any images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wouldn't be shocked if Damas was nearing super typhoon status. Looks amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 This is the closest obs to the northern end of the island I could find anyone got anything on the north end? This spot is located about halfway up the island. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=okinawa There is a airport on Yoron Island just north of the main island that is liable to get the northern eyewall but I cant find anything for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm in complete awe of these images.... I feel very anxious for what he's about to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Update from Josh: They are holding out in the elementary school in Town on Oku on the northern edge of the island. http://goo.gl/maps/dK5PY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Latest advisory JMA 100kts gusting to 140kts 160 mph. Theres your andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Latest advisory JMA 100kts gusting to 140kts 160 mph. Theres your andrew. Uh...I still have 115 kts gusting to 140. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I wouldn't call it an Andrew... cloud tops are warming... but this is probably legit high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Uh...I still have 115 kts gusting to 140. TY 1324 (DANAS) Issued at 04:50 UTC, 7 October 2013 <Analyses at 07/04 UTC> Scale - Intensity Very Strong Center position N26°05'(26.1°) E129°00'(129.0°) Direction and speed of movement NW 35km/h(20kt) Central pressure 935hPa Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt) Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt) Area of 50kt winds or more NE170km(90NM) SW130km(70NM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I wouldn't call it an Andrew... cloud tops are warming... but this is probably legit high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4. Extremely dangerous storm..looks perfect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Just got off the phone with Josh, He's holed up in the location I posted before. It was very hard to hear him by either the wind or the static of the connection, or both. I asked him if he feels safe at where he is at and he said he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 About how long until he's really in it, do you think? I need to know how long I'm not sleeping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Remember josh is on a mobile network. Link any images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 With each passing hour, it's looking increasingly more likely that they will experience the SW eyewall. Still going to be an excruciatingly close call either way. Still can't completely rule out the unlikely prospect of even catching a portion of the eye. At this point, I suspect they'd be pretty happy with catching at least a portion of the SW eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That's awesome! Congrats on the success and us all deserve this after what 2013 has become. Hopefully Danas will be explosively intensifying as it hits you guys directly during daylight . It appears to be already doing this so good luck! My hopes are panning out exactly the way I wanted, a major bright spot for 2013 tropical cyclone intercepts! Yep, staying on Okinawa Island and heading to the NE tip. It's current heading would give us a royal butt-kicking. Yowee. Radar presentation is sick. Yes, this could be one of your best chases if everything goes right. This one is going to remind you of what a true power tropical cyclones are. Congrats again, stay safe, and capture lots of footage! Convection has warmed quite a bit over the past several hours. The eye remains very well-defined though. *Image* I've seen this happen often with these types of evolving TCs. Every time there is a buzz saw cyclone that explodes and isn't in a perfect environment yet still in a great one, tend to do this. The eye is becoming extremely symmetrical and more annular like while the surrounding convection fades. I don't know why this happens but in my opinion its not weakening despite cloud tops mattering in every other instance. I think it has something to do with a transition of the type of TC it is (not annular necessarily but possible). There have been CAT5 tropical cyclones that didn't have very cold cloud tops before but extremely symmetrical eyes. Wouldn't be shocked if Damas was nearing super typhoon status. Looks amazing! I wondered if it already was one when I first saw her today . My personal estimate on strength is around 130-135 knots 1 min. About 5 hours ago it was around 125 knots. I wouldn't call it an Andrew... cloud tops are warming... but this is probably legit high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4. See my explanation above on the cloud tops warming thing, but how can this be a high end CAT3 only? No way. And your using 1 min winds? I do ask though to those comparing to Andrew, do you think its a CAT5 typhoon currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 James, they are at 10 feet, 200 yards from the bay, no surge concerns? 150 mph winds in a car? I know they are experienced, just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 With each passing hour, it's looking increasingly more likely that they will experience the SW eyewall. Still going to be an excruciatingly close call either way. Still can't completely rule out the unlikely prospect of even catching a portion of the eye. At this point, I suspect they'd be pretty happy with catching at least a portion of the SW eyewall. The SW eyewall is traditionally the weakest portion of a NW moving storm (especially one moving at a quick clip such as this), although based merely on the radar reflectivity, it seems that the W side of the eyewall is pretty robust! Its going to be a very close call, and if the storm takes any significant northward jog they will probably just miss out on the SW eyewall. Of course a westward wobble would probably put them firmly in the eyewall with an outside shot at making the eye, but that appears pretty unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 With each passing hour, it's looking increasingly more likely that they will experience the SW eyewall. Still going to be an excruciatingly close call either way. Still can't completely rule out the unlikely prospect of even catching a portion of the eye. At this point, I suspect they'd be pretty happy with catching at least a portion of the SW eyewall. They can't go any farther N without being unsafe or in the ocean (lol).. I like this town because of the seawall/harbor and if something goes wrong there is people there. If it only was a cat one or a two, I'd suggest they go to that point (Cape Hedo) but not in a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 James, they are at 10 feet, 200 yards from the bay, no surge concerns? 150 mph winds in a car? I know they are experienced, just wondering While this is a very intense storm, I don't think the surge associated with this system will be as significant as what they might have experienced with Fitow given that the radius of winds is much smaller with Danas and is likely unable to draw as large of a fetch of high seas. With that said, anything above cat 3 can be devastating for those right along the coastline, and given the small size and fast forward motion, things would probably be changing very rapidly in these last few hours before impact. However, in smaller very intense TCs, the main impact in most cases is actually the wind (think like TC's Charley and Andrew). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 See my explanation above on the cloud tops warming thing, but how can this be a high end CAT3 only? No way. And your using 1 min winds? I do ask though to those comparing to Andrew, do you think its a CAT5 typhoon currently? I'm taking to account a weaker pressure gradient than would be encountered in the Atlantic. I'd assume that background pressures are already pretty low due to Fitow not being too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 James, they are at 10 feet, 200 yards from the bay, no surge concerns? 150 mph winds in a car? I know they are experienced, just wondering The've got another 10 feet in the building on top of the 10 feet above the harbor. There is also a sea/breakwall in the harbor along with a natural reef that should cut down the wave action. As Phil said also, it's a small system, it won't have the pushing power of a regular cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 They can't go any farther N without being unsafe or in the ocean (lol).. I like this town because of the seawall/harbor and if something goes wrong there is people there. If it only was a cat one or a two, I'd suggest they go to that point (Cape Hedo) but not in a storm like this. I wholeheartedly agree! Excellent choice. I too would be very happy to at least catch a portion of the SW eyewall, and am very encouraged that it currently appears they will do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 About how long until he's really in it, do you think? I need to know how long I'm not sleeping for. Most likely, they will begin to experience the worst within the next two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The SW eyewall is traditionally the weakest portion of a NW moving storm (especially one moving at a quick clip such as this), although based merely on the radar reflectivity, it seems that the W side of the eyewall is pretty robust! Its going to be a very close call, and if the storm takes any significant northward jog they will probably just miss out on the SW eyewall. Of course a westward wobble would probably put them firmly in the eyewall with an outside shot at making the eye, but that appears pretty unlikely at this point. We are in complete agreement! Considering the fact they are confined to a relatively small island with no prospects of readjusting their positions at the last minute, so to speak, I would be pretty happy to catch any portion of the eyewall of this particular storm. For this reason, I suspect they might feel the same. Of course, we can still hope for a more westward wobble and the substantially more intense conditions. That said, I want to add the important disclaimer that I am not rooting for anyone to be too adversely affected by this storm, or any other, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.