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iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013


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looks like James and Josh are staying in Okinawa for Danas... can't blame them; you don't wanna get stuck in Amami.. and it looks like Danas will move close to Okinawa anyway (may even make landfall there??) so they may still get much higher winds than what they got with Fitow... :weight_lift:

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Danas looking very powerful this morning. Current trajectory/forecast shows that Danas's eye will pass over the very northern tip of Okinawa Island.

 

I recommend Cape Hedo: http://goo.gl/maps/XWjn9 It is right on the northern tip of the island on the shore and there is a 3 story tall solid concrete structure, a few monuments, and a lookout. It will take ~2 hrs from Naha via the toll road and 58.

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Nice cyan ring around the eye 

 

That eyewall on radar looks insane. Hopefully Josh and James can catch some of that

 

There's gotta be some 130kt-140kt gusts in the NE Quad. Just insane. Becoming worried on some of the NE Okinawa towns. Storm surge is going to be at least 15-20 feet then put 30 ft waves on top of that.

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There's gotta be some 130kt-140kt gusts in the NE Quad. Just insane. Becoming worried on some of the NE Okinawa towns. Storm surge is going to be at least 15-20 feet then put 30 ft waves on top of that.

 

Yeah, if that slams into Okinawa with it's current presentation, there may very well be some safety concerns. Such an impressive little typhoon

 

EDIT: Intensity estimates suggest winds are near 132 knots 

 

013OCT06 223200 6.7 907.4 -0.2 132.2 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 

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Josh, It looks to cross the island between 26.8N and the top of the island, or between the towns of Ada (on the east coast) and the top of the island. That's 10mi as the crow flies.  Right now it's doing a little left wobble but should resume it's WNW track. The exact center is on the N side of the eye and the NE eyewall is INSANE. Talking Andrew caliber here. I must warn you though that Route 70 on the east side of the island has a bunch of low bridges that could get wiped by the surge and waves, so be careful if going that way.

 

Please call me if you need to.

 

Edit: Hey other guys posting, can we please limit the images as we get closer to crunch time. Josh is on mobile and may have limited bandwidth as he positions and the cyclone gets closer, we don't want to waste that bandwidth.

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If it continues on its past two hour trajectory, and doesn't jog further north as it nears the island, the NE tip would be in the center of the relatively small eye. In other words, your extrapolation is accurate based on its current heading.

That said, the latest forecast track calls for a little more of a poleward bend as it nears the island. It's going to be close. I am hoping you catch at least a portion of the SW eyewall, at worst. It's all about watching the wobbles, as it closes in on you, at this point. Quite honestly, it won't take too many wobbles more poleward for you to actually miss the eyewall. Of course, the same is true of any prospective wobbles more westward. It's literally going to be that close!

Regardless, I wish you the best of luck Josh!

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Josh, It looks to cross the island between 26.8N and the top of the island, or between the towns of Ada (on the east coast) and the top of the island. That's 10mi as the crow flies.  Right now it's doing a little left wobble but should resume it's WNW track. The exact center is on the N side of the eye and the NE eyewall is INSANE. Talking Andrew caliber here. I must warn you though that Route 70 on the east side of the island has a bunch of low bridges that could get wiped by the surge and waves, so be careful if going that way.

 

Please call me if you need to.

 

Edit: Hey other guys posting, can we please limit the images as we get closer to crunch time. Josh is on mobile and may have limited bandwidth as he positions and the cyclone gets closer, we don't want to waste that bandwidth.

Hey, James--

James and Mark and I are really grateful for the analysis-- it's hard on huge road. Thank you so much. Thanks also for warning the others are Re: bandwidth. So far, our data connection is pretty good, so for now, everything's cool except high-rest loops.

I would like to call you. Would you please PM your number again?

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If it continues on its past two hour trajectory, and doesn't jog further north as it nears the island, the NE tip should be in the center of the relatively small eye. In other words, your extrapolation is accurate based on its current heading.

That said, the latest forecast track calls for a little more of a poleward bend as it nears the island. It's going to be close. I currently see very little chance you miss catching the SW eyewall, at the worst.

Good luck, Josh!

Hey, thanks, Tony! That all makes a lot of sense!

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I modified my post after looking at the updated images of the most recent radar loop. This is the toughest, and most apprehensive, part of intercepting TCs, as you know-watching each successive wobble! There was a noticeable poleward wobble during the past 15 minutes. Hopefully, it will wobble back more westerly and it's not the beginnings of the forecasted more poleward bend I referenced in the preceding post. :(

Still hopeful you will at least catch a portion of the SW eyewall! :)

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This chase it turning out to be eerily reminiscent of the "Dean" chase where Josh was essentially a wobble away from experiencing the eyewall of a category five!

I'm hoping the wobble, or wobbles, work out in his favor on this occasion.

Edit: I must admit I'm a little discouraged, at the moment, based on the radar trends of storm motion during the past hour. There has been a definitive more poleward trajectory during that time frame.

If this motion continues, Josh will just miss the SW eyewall. We need another wobble or two more westward, as it closes in on the island.

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This storm looks very Andrew like. Stay safe Josh. it will probably be the most intense storm you've been in.

Just saw the radar and wow at the eye shape. Haven't seen anything like that in the Atlantic since Dean.

Was just thinking the same thing in terms of satellite appearance conpared to Andrew. Having gone through Andrews 150+mph winds in 92 in Florida city i hope you stay safe cause if that eyewall manages to clip you these winds are nothing to mess around with.
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This chase it turning out to be eerily reminiscent of the "Dean" chase where Josh was essentially a wobble away from experiencing the eyewall of a category five!

I'm hoping the wobble, or wobbles, work out in his favor on this occasion.

Edit: I must admit I'm a little discouraged, at the moment, based on the radar trends of storm motion during the past hour. There has been a definitive more poleward trajectory during that time frame.

If this motion continues, Josh will just miss the SW eyewall. We need another wobble or two more westward, as it closes in on the island.

Have to be careful, those last frames are forecasts not actual radar images. Still has a good westward component as of 12:20. The jog to the north occurs on the forecast frames.

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