iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

As far as the JMA is concerned, I wasn't aware of that policy regarding the ceiling they place on maximum intensity estimates. Unlike the NHC's operational areas of forecasting responsibility, I admittedly aren't nearly as familiar with the workings of the JMA or the JTWC. That said, I am acutely aware of the significant discrepancies that tend to exist between satellite estimates and those verified by actual recon observation. That's the frustrating part of accurately ascertaining the peak intensity of WPAC TCs.

Unless I'm mistaken, the PAGASA meteorological agency is considered an official agency, as well, and as such, their interpretation of the satellite data deserves some merit, as well.

Regardless, there's no doubt, at least in my mind, that Haiyan displayed one of the best satellite signatures I've ever seen. The obvious question though is how that highly impressive satellite signature actually translated to the max intensity at the surface of this phenomenal Typhoon. That part of the equation is still open to genuine debate, and I'm afraid we may never truly known the answer. Based on all the available data and information available to date, I stand by my own personal assessment of what I suspect to be the likely landfalling intensity of Haiyan, for its first two respective landfalls. To reiterate, this is just simply my own personal opinion based solely on the current available evidence-which is left to more subjectivity than I'd like.

Of course, the debate about just how intense Haiyan was, at either respective landfall, pales in comparison to the incredible suffering it has left in its wake!

 

Hey, Tony--

 

For whatever reason, Pagasa is taken less seriously, and folks often accuse them of being low with the intensity estimates.

 

Yeah, for JMA, 125 kt is off the charts.  When JMA gets up to the 100-kt mark, that's when you know you're dealing with a really, really intense storm. Even making an allowance for the fact that they use a 10-min wind, their estimates are just very conservative. I can't find anything in their database over 125 kt.  Megi is 125 kt in their database, and Bopha-- the Cat 5 that smashed Mindanao last December-- is only 100 kt!

 

I usually take a blend of the JTWC and adjusted JMA intensities as my "truth".  For example, when we chased Typhoon Nari a few weeks ago, the JTWC had 105 kt (1-min) (Cat 3), whereas JMA had 70 kt (10-min), which adjusts to 80 kt (1-min) (Cat 1).  Blending the two estimates (105 kt and 80 kt) yields ~90 kt, which feels about right, and so I consider Nari a Cat-2 chase in my portfolio.

 

Blending JTWC and JMA for Haiyan puts us solidly in Cat-5 territory for both landfalls.  There doesn't seem to be any debate about this topic among tropical meteorologists.  I would agree, however, that it was a stronger Cat 5 when it hit Guiuan than when it came ashore just S of us in Leyte.

[ncforecaster89]

Hey, Tony--

For whatever reason, the Pagasa estimates are taken less seriously, and folks often accuse them of being low with the intensity estimates.

Yeah, for JMA, 125 kt is off the charts. When JMA gets up to the 100-kt mark, that's when you know you're dealing with a really, really intense storm. Even making an allowance for the fact that they use a 10-min wind, their estimates are just very conservative. I can't find anything in their database that's over the 125-kt mark.

I usually take a blend of the adjusted JMA intensity and the JTWC as my "truth". For example, when we chased Typhoon Nari a few weeks ago, the JTWC had 105 kt (1-min) (Cat 3), whereas JMA had 70 kt (10-min), which adjusts to 80 kt (1-min) (Cat 1). Blending the two estimates (105 kt and 80 kt) yields ~90 kt, which feels about right, and so I consider Nari a Cat-2 chase in my portfolio.

Blending JMA and JTWC for Haiyan puts us solidly in Cat-5 territory for both landfalls.

To be completely honest, I most certainly understand where you're coming from. Until proven otherwise, I too would consider Haiyan to be a category five TC landfall at its closest approach to your intercept location.

As I alluded to in my previous posts, if it didn't, in fact, come ashore just S of Palo at category five intensity, it was most definitely exceedingly close.

Regardless, the effects you experienced in Tacloban City were indeed "extremely severe!"

[somethingfunny]

Fox News has been running with the PAGASA estimate for quite some time (ignoring the issue of 1-min vs 10-min winds)

 

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/11/10/strongest-typhoon-year-hits-philippines/

Haiyan hit the eastern seaboard of the Philippine archipelago on Friday and quickly barreled across its central islands before exiting into the South China Sea, packing winds of 147 miles per hour that gusted to 170 mph, and a storm surge that caused sea waters to rise 20 feet.

By those measurements, Haiyan would be comparable to a strong Category 4 hurricane in the U.S., nearly in the top category, a 5.

[HurricaneJosh]

Fox News has been running with the PAGASA estimate for quite some time (ignoring the issue of 1-min vs 10-min winds)

 

Ugh, that is frustrating to read that.  The mainstream news agencies need someone to vet any meteorological statements they make.  I've seen other things like this.

 

When you convert Pagasa's 10-min wind to a 1-min wind, all three agencies had it as solid Cat 5.

[Big Jims Videos]

Ugh, that is frustrating to read that. The mainstream news agencies need someone to vet any meteorological statements they make. I've seen other things like this.

When you convert Pagasa's 10-min wind to a 1-min wind, all three agencies had it as solid Cat 5.

For whatever reason the quality of meteorologists on main stream cable news outlets is severely lacking.

[andyhb]

It's called the Chad Myers effect.

[HurricaneJosh]

Stepping back from Haiyan for a second and looking at this thread big picture... My head is kind of spinning from what happened this fall.  To go out there to the WPAC for the first time-- a basin I'd previously dismissed as bad chase turf-- and get in the eyewalls of a Cat 2, a Cat 4, a Cat 2, and a Cat 5, all within about a month, is kind of mind-blowing.  Never saw this coming.

[aslkahuna]

Stepping back from Haiyan for a second and looking at this thread big picture... My head is kind of spinning from what happened this fall.  To go out there to the WPAC for the first time-- a basin I'd previously dismissed as bad chase turf-- and get in the eyewalls of a Cat 2, a Cat 4, a Cat 2, and a Cat 5, all within about a month, is kind of mind-blowing.  Never saw this coming.

This places you in the same category as the VCAT team that was on scene for Pinatubo or Jim Leonard on Guam in 1992-what do you do for an encore.

Steve

[HurricaneJosh]

This places you in the same category as the VCAT team that was on scene for Pinatubo or Jim Leonard on Guam in 1992-what do you do for an encore.

Steve

 

Yeah, I was kind of wondering-- but I think there's still new territory to tread.  I haven't been squarely in the eye of a Cat 4 or 5 yet, and that's something important I really need to do.  All four chases this year were successful because I hit the eyewalls, but I didn't get right in the center of any of the eyes.  (I grazed the Cat-4 eye (Danas), but it was such a short lull-- right on the edge-- that it doesn't count.)

 

P.S.  Hi, Steve!    Long time, no chat.

[Amped]

Just for the record is anyone Petitioning JMA or JWTC about their no recon policy on land falling super-typhoons?   This cyclone was clearly a threat to human life as well as having scientific importance.  It was not just a storm for the weenie record books.

[Ed Lizard]

Just for the record is anyone Petitioning JMA or JWTC about their no recon policy on land falling super-typhoons?   This cyclone was clearly a threat to human life as well as having scientific importance.  It was not just a storm for the weenie record books.

 

They don't have policies on recon.  the USAF 54th WRS based out of Guam was shut down 20 plus years ago, and the JMA is not the Japanese Self Defense Forces.  I'm sure JMA would be thrilled to have recon they could task.

[somethingfunny]

Recon wouldn't have saved any lives here.  It was apparent from satellite that we had a beast on our hands, and apparent from a topographic map of the coastal waters that Leyte Gulf was a storm surge catastrophe waiting to happen (well, waiting to repeat, it last happened in 1897)

[Ginx snewx]

Most know that surge from a tropical cyclone is usually a rapid buildup of water with waves on top etc. I wondered when the tsunami type reports came in why this storm was different. Here is video that at the end indeed shows a Tsunami type situation occurred. Pretty dramatic, it shows how incredibly strong and intense this wave was. I will not speculate on the cause but will be eager to read others opinions.

[somethingfunny]

Most know that surge from a tropical cyclone is usually a rapid buildup of water with waves on top etc. I wondered when the tsunami type reports came in why this storm was different. Here is video that at the end indeed shows a Tsunami type situation occurred. Pretty dramatic, it shows how incredibly strong and intense this wave was. I will not speculate on the cause but will be eager to read others opinions.

 

Holy ****

 

Weirdest thing about that is the video was taken in a location I would not pick as being real vulnerable to surge.

 

[andyhb]

Holy ****

 

Yeah, that's pretty much all.

[Ginx snewx]

Holy ****

Weirdest thing about that is the video was taken in a location I would not pick as being real vulnerable to surge.

notice the retraction of water right before, there must have been a massive sea wave. Sure is different from my knowledge base of landfalling storms.

[somethingfunny]

I'm not sure how sudden the retraction was, the camera angle changes though I believe it's the same house in the entire video.  Maybe the wind shift had a hand in the sudden surge?  The location's a bit north of the eye, though I can see how water would pile up along Guiuan and Salcedo sloshing northwest along that coast before the wind out of the south surges it all into that location at Hernani. http://goo.gl/maps/QeDl4

[Amped]

notice the retraction of water right before, there must have been a massive sea wave. Sure is different from my knowledge base of landfalling storms.

If that was not some sort of a damn break flowing into a bay, then it is a legit rogue wave.  All the reports thinking of standing anywhere close to the water in a major hurricane should watch that video. Here is an article about rouge waves in Ivan.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4739741.stm

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow-- yeah-- that is incredible the way it comes up so fast.  And what's interesting is that that location was outside the cyclone's core-- it was well N.  (Notice the winds aren't crazy strong.)

 

We noticed in Tacloban City, also, that the surge came up very suddenly.  Everyone I talked to afterward-- survivors, news media, etc.-- described the rise as happening fast and taking them off guard.  It surprised us.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Wow-- yeah-- that is incredible the way it comes up so fast.  And what's interesting is that that location was outside the cyclone's core-- it was well N.  (Notice the winds aren't crazy strong.)

 

We noticed in Tacloban City, also, that the surge came up very suddenly.  Every I talked to afterward-- survivors, news media, etc.-- described the rise as happening fast and taking them off guard.  It surprised us.

 

Josh were you scared at any point on this chase? It must have been like starring down the barrel  of a gun. I think that video shows that is was not a run of the mill storm. This was something diffrent. This one could kill you even in a well constructed building. I watched the surge with Sandy first hand I even swam through it. The power of water is insane when compared to wind. If there had been recon they probaly would have seen the ocean behave like it did in Camile. This was the ultimate surge monster as the surge had already been created when this thing was producing near 200mph sustained winds!

[aslkahuna]

Another classic example of a rapid storm surge is Jim Leonard's classic video of the surge on Guam from STY Yuri where he was filming surge from a beach and found himself in waist deep water in 30 seconds of less.

Steve

[Amped]

Another classic example of a rapid storm surge is Jim Leonard's classic video of the surge on Guam from STY Yuri where he was filming surge from a beach and found himself in waist deep water in 30 seconds of less.

Steve

Just checked the video. 44 seconds was when it 1st hit the house by 53 seconds, the house is gone.

[icebreaker5221]

Holy ****

 

Weirdest thing about that is the video was taken in a location I would not pick as being real vulnerable to surge.

 

 

Hmm, could have been that the swell was pushing in from the ESE but was channeled northward along the coast before finally all rushing over that outcropping.  Shallow reef waters probably exacerbated the problem. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh were you scared at any point on this chase? It must have been like starring down the barrel  of a gun. I think that video shows that is was not a run of the mill storm. This was something diffrent. This one could kill you even in a well constructed building. I watched the surge with Sandy first hand I even swam through it. The power of water is insane when compared to wind. If there had been recon they probaly would have seen the ocean behave like it did in Camile. This was the ultimate surge monster as the surge had already been created when this thing was producing near 200mph sustained winds!

 

Oh, sure I was a little scared at times-- you'd have to be foolish not to be in a storm that violent.

 

What freaked me out most was feeling like other people around me were going to die if I didn't do something-- and thus the really desperate rescue operations which you might have seen on TV. The storm surge never got any higher than ~4 ft in our hotel, but at the time we didn't know that-- we thought it would keep rising-- and I just felt like, "Holy f*ck-- if we don't get out there and pull those people out of their windows with our own hands, the're gonna die."  That was a heavy feeling.

 

And afterward it was scary watching the city descend into chaos.

 

So, yeah, it was scary and disturbing on many levels.

 

P.S.  Can't believe you swam through Sandy's surge-- crazy!

[HurricaneJosh]

I posted this on Facebook but will post it here, too:

 

I'm reviewing my own Super Typhoon HAIYAN video footage in great detail now. It's really awesome how well-defined the eyewall is. I can tell you from the time-stamped footage that it sweeps into Tacloban City at almost exactly 6:47 am. That's only a half hour before the lowest air pressure, which happened at ~7:15 am. And the highest winds seem to occur at ~7:25 am-- so, in the NE eyewall, as the center is moving away from the city and the pressure is recovering. These details are fascinating to me. Watching the footage is like dissecting the anatomy of the cyclone's ferocious core. I hope to post my video this week.

[aslkahuna]

I posted this on Facebook but will post it here, too:

 

I'm reviewing my own Super Typhoon HAIYAN video footage in great detail now. It's really awesome how well-defined the eyewall is. I can tell you from the time-stamped footage that it sweeps into Tacloban City at almost exactly 6:47 am. That's only a half hour before the lowest air pressure, which happened at ~7:15 am. And the highest winds seem to occur at ~7:25 am-- so, in the NE eyewall, as the center is moving away from the city and the pressure is recovering. These details are fascinating to me. Watching the footage is like dissecting the anatomy of the cyclone's ferocious core. I hope to post my video this week.

Winds before eyewall passage would have had a more offshore component than the winds in the NE quad given Tacoloban's location with respect to the island and Leyte Gulf.

Steve

[HurricaneJosh]

Winds before eyewall passage would have had a more offshore component than the winds in the NE quad given Tacoloban's location with respect to the island and Leyte Gulf.

Steve

 

Yep-- that makes perfect sense, and it can partially explain why the winds seemed to get more violent after the directional shift, as the center was moving away and the pressure was recovering.

[HurricaneJosh]

OK, I'm really excited.  When I stopped filming the typhoon so I could help people, I threw my camera into a flower pot in the lobby. The storm surge swept it away.  Later on, after the cyclone passed, I found the camera in the wreckage. The camera had been submerged and was totally shot but I saved the memory card. It read initially but then it wouldn't. Back in L.A., I took it to a data-recovery place and they've managed to save the files!  The technician who saved the files was like, whoa, that footage is crazy. Kind of psyched to see it.  I am so glad these files were saved.  Omg.

[eyewall]

OK, I'm really excited.  When I stopped filming the typhoon so I could help people, I threw my camera into a flower pot in the lobby. The storm surge swept it away.  Later on, after the cyclone past, I found the camera in the wreckage. The camera has been submerged and was totally shot but I saved the memory card. It read initially but then it wouldn't. Back in L.A., I took it to a data-recovery place and they've managed to save the files!  The technician who saved the files was like, whoa, that footage is crazy. Kind of psyched to see it.  I am so glad these files were saved.  Omg.

Awesome! You may very well have caught the camera being swept by the surge before it died.

[buckeyefan1]

OK, I'm really excited.  When I stopped filming the typhoon so I could help people, I threw my camera into a flower pot in the lobby. The storm surge swept it away.  Later on, after the cyclone past, I found the camera in the wreckage. The camera has been submerged and was totally shot but I saved the memory card. It read initially but then it wouldn't. Back in L.A., I took it to a data-recovery place and they've managed to save the files!  The technician who saved the files was like, whoa, that footage is crazy. Kind of psyched to see it.  I am so glad these files were saved.  Omg.

Great news!