iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013

[ncforecaster89]

Now, regarding the footage captured; very impressive! Hard to determine just how high those winds might be? I'm guessing the peak gusts were at least 115 kt (135 mph). I'd even suggest somewhere between 140-150 mph!

I base this best guess on my own experience in wind gusts of 130 mph, and the "Charley" gas station video taken by Mike Thesis. These winds weren't quite as intense as those in the Charley video, but it appears they are certainly exceeding the 130 mph I recorded in Katrina, best I can surmise.

[buckeyefan1]

Can we not move the chaser ethics thread in C/W to the main forum and move these posts there?

If anyone wants to further discuss chaser ethics, they can do so in the C/W forum.  Keep it out of here. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40397-storm-chasing-and-media-coverage-ethics/page-9

[Chaser25973]

Would love to see the data that Josh and co. collected. Whether he chased for data, research, thrill, or humanitarian reasons, it's really none of our business. We're just voyeurs to his experiences. But bravo for surviving a Cat. 5 chase!

[Ginx snewx]

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/11/pkg-stevens-typhoon-haiyan-reporters-notebook.cnn.html

[JamieOber]

[HurricaneJosh]

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/11/pkg-stevens-typhoon-haiyan-reporters-notebook.cnn.html

 

Thanks, Steve.  I really like this piece-- it captures the weird scariness of what was going down in our hotel-- with the howling, the windows smashing, the water rising, the people praying, etc.

[WEATHER53]

Thanks, Steve.  I really like this piece-- it captures the weird scariness of what was going down in our hotel-- with the howling, the windows smashing, the water rising, the people praying, etc.

You gotta come to DC so I can give you a big Hug and I mean it.  Please let me have your date of arrival.

[wxmeddler]

I saw a tweet that Jim Edds and James Reynolds were on CNN (AC360). Anybody catch that interview?

[Radtechwxman]

so just out of curiousity, were any cat 5 winds measured on land? and were there any pressure readings below 900mb seen on land?

[patrick05]

I saw a tweet that Jim Edds and James Reynolds were on CNN (AC360). Anybody catch that interview?

 

yes but they talked about pretty much the same general thing about how they survived, what it was like down there, etc.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The interviews should be online, and for those who have already seen our coverage we're getting asked a lot of the same questions so may appear to be repeating ourselves a lot!

[Sickman]

I moved the chasing debate posts here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40397-storm-chasing-and-media-coverage-ethics/

 

The chasing debate is valid for discussion, and I don't mean to diminish their importance.  I'd just rather keep this thread solely as a recap for the chase, as I'm sure this will be a valuable resource for a long time to come.

 

Thanks.

[Siberian Express]

Josh, seen your interview on CBS this morning.  It was a good interview, glad you and the rest of the group are OK.

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50158963n

[Ginx snewx]

Great interview Josh. 800K homeless is the UN estimate

[H2O]

Great interview Josh. 800K homeless is the UN estimate

 

Winds and tsunami like storm surge decimated such a large area.

[Sampson]

Great interview and unbelievable footage. You are an incredible asset to Amwx. It's a privilege for all of us to see these storms through the course of your adventures.

[Bruinsyear]

Great interview Josh. Amazing job down there capturing the beast, but more importantly jumping into action when human lives are on the line. Just a moving chase all around. Glad you guys made it out alright.

[Rib]

Josh, you are crazy but you helped those people and no matter what people think of you, they have to respect that.

[Drz1111]

First photos out of Guiuan.  And they are, basically, everything you expected Cat-5 wind damage to be.  It looks like a strong tornado rolled through.  Thankfully, looks like a lot of concrete construction there.

 

https://www.facebook.com/david.yu.santos/media_set?set=a.10151810242908212.1073741828.727513211&type=3

[terpguy]

Josh-  Just saw you on th CBS Evening News.  Great job.

 

You are a hero...I mean that.

 

I hope that your friend is OK...anybody I know?

 

Brad

[Srain]

Josh-  Just saw you on th CBS Evening News.  Great job.

 

You are a hero...I mean that.

 

I hope that your friend is OK...anybody I know?

 

Brad

http://m.cbsnews.com/postwatch.rbml?pageType=video&cbsID=50159014

[GaWx]

Josh,

 That was simply amazing! Wow!

[Roger Smith]

Given the severity of the storm, some of the casualty reports are remarkably low outside of Tacloban city. It shows that the major killer in such a storm is the surge, but even so, I suspect that 30-40 deaths in Guiuan if verified would have to be partly due to decisions about where to shelter, and also to the fact that the local construction, while flimsy by our standards, has the advantage of just falling apart rather than crushing trapped inhabitants (in a lot of cases, obviously this won't apply universally).

 

Have been checking into the fate of residents on offshore islands in eastern Samar. First thing learned is that Google Earth has an error, the island it shows as "Homonhon" is actually Suluan -- the real Homonhon is a larger island to the west-south-west. In any case, all I could find was one report of no contact since the storm, and concern about the fate of what would appear to be several hundred on that island (and also presumbaly Suluan for which no specific information came up in my search). I've read here and elsewhere of major damage on nearby Manicani island. There was also a report of near-total devastation on Malapascua Island which is a scuba-diving resort destination north of Cebu (island). People survived there by riding out the storm in a concrete bunker.

 

In general it sounds like relatively moderate tolls of 30-50 deaths in each of western Leyte, north Cebu and north Negros which is part of Negros Occidentale, and also on Panay, and on largely devastated Bantayan Island. A more subdued damage and death report was issued from Coron in northern Palawan.

 

Tacloban City and Basey appear to have the majority of the casualties but there must have been a severe toll in Palo and Tanuaun to the south of there as this is where the eye made landfall. A report from Ormoc City in western Leyte, under the eye on radar, states that damage is worse than an event in 1991 when flooding killed 8,000 people there but death toll is estimated at only 35.

 

All of this seems quite uncertain to me, not sure who could say with much authority a few days into this recovery how many people survived, how many are missing, how many swept out to sea, etc. Death toll could end up anywhere from 5,000 to 25,000. Although obviously a high-end cat-5 at some point around landfall, most of the later intensity seems fairly consistent with cat-4 hurricanes making landfall -- a lot of roofs blown off structures further into the country, not that many walls blown down, seems more typical of cat-4 than cat-5. There may have been a strong cat-5 landfall near Guiuan, borderline 4/5 at Palo, weakening to around cat-3 over Leyte, back up to cat-4/5 borderline near Malapascua, then cat-4 in Panay and cat-3/4 borderline in north Palawan. We'll see what investigators with more data say after their review, that's my very sketchy guess as to what actually happened.

 

Hoping that we do get reliable data somehow from Guiuan, there was one report of a hand-held instrument reading 899 mbs, any further word on this, or just one of those rumours?

[bkviking]

A picture of Josh made it onto Drudgereport, which links to UK Daily Mail article:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2505083/Philippines-Typhoon-Haiyan-survivors-floated-safety-mattresses.html

[Wow]

Excellent work Josh.  Just heard your interview clip on the radio this morning during a discussion w/ Brad Panovich.

[hazwoper]

Josh, good stuff!  Perhaps CBS will hire you on as a special reporter and pick up all your storm chasing costs (and then some).

 

Love what you guys do!

[eyewall]

Well given Josh's facebook post on their pressure observations and what he said in the interview when asked, it looks like 950's-960 may be what he measured. If the Guiuan measured 899 or these both would support the JTWC estimate of 895 mb or so, with the storm filling a bit as it made its closest approach to Josh (Central pressure may have been in the lower 900's by then).

[AgeeWx]

Well given Josh's facebook post on their pressure observations and what he said in the interview when asked, it looks like 950's-960 may be what he measured. If the Guiuan measured 899 or these both would support the JTWC estimate of 895 mb or so, with the storm filling a bit as it made its closest approach to Josh (Central pressure may have been in the lower 900's by then).

 

 

Where have you seen the report from Guiuan of 899mb? Or is that just an extrapolation? I've been seeing numbers all over the board but nothing has be accompanied by actual measurements other than what the we can infer from satellite measurements, like Dvorak Ts.

[eyewall]

Where have you seen the report from Guiuan of 899mb? Or is that just an extrapolation? I've been seeing numbers all over the board but nothing has be accompanied by actual measurements other than what the we can infer from satellite measurements, like Dvorak Ts.

 

There was someone here saying a report came from there from a handheld device. I was implying if that is true. But either way Josh didn't measure a pressure under 950 if you go by his facebook comments thread with his pressure trace teaser photo. The airport made 955 or so in its last reading. So assuming there was even a 30-40 mb drop from the eyewall to the center of the eye that still puts the pressure at 910-920 mb or so. I believe Charley (a tightly compact cyclone) had a 38 mb difference or so (but someone can correct me if I am wrong on that).

[AgeeWx]

There was someone here saying a report came from there from a handheld device. I was implying if that is true.

 

 

Okay, that's what I figured. The number I keep seeing/hearing is 858mb but looking at a Dvorak scale shows that is the assumed minimum central pressure for a reading of 8.0. I think it would be awesome to see a world record minimum pressure but without a confirmed in-situ measurement I think it's foolish to assume that was the pressure reached based upon the data we already have.