iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013

[TalcottWx]

Is that area prone to mudslides during events like this?

Have not seen that mentioned

One benefit of quick moving storm is less rain at least

[Ginx snewx]

Some aerial footage of Tacloban. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation/regions/11/09/13/watch-aerial-footage-tacloban-city-disaster

holy crap,OT but maybe someone can explain the mixed use of English. that reporters on the ground video I am sure is just a very small glimpse of the extent. 

[Cory]

I hope some people in this thread will soon be on a plane to go help the victims. 

[wxmeddler]

 Damn.

[Ed Lizard]

Re the Twitter pic on Cebu.

 

There is YouTube video of the partial collapse of a 350 year old church in Cebu during the October 15th earthquake.  Many people in Cebu were already in tent cities, the picture I saw on the internet of ~140 families sheltering in a different Catholic church that didn't look all that sturdy, and the weakened buildings from the earthquake, I think damage will be bad even South of the center.

 

The chasers didn't add to the suffering or the death toll, they risked their own personal safety, and I hope the ones with financial means donate to disaster relieff, and I hope everyone who can afford it donates to disaster relief, but I don't see them as the bad guys.

[tornadotony]

For those trying to so quickly judge intensity, esp comparing to tornado damage, consider the following:

 

1) We don't know what winds cause different levels of tornado damage.  The EF-scale is an expert-elicited estimate of wind damage for different levels of damage to different buildings.

 

2) Hurricanes/typhoons do not have the intense vertical component of wind that a tornado has.  This fact has two consequences.  The first is that it's going to be somewhat easier to shield a small building or object behind a stronger building that's facing the wind.  The second, and probably more important, consequence is that you don't have the strong upward force counteracting gravity that you have in a tornado.  And since many buildings are only built to counteract gravity, that upward force make buildings can make buildings more susceptible to horizontal forces in a tornado.  This doesn't really happen in a hurricane/typhoon.

 

3) I would not be surprised if, in some cases, the surge actually helped protect some buildings.  Remember, unlike a tsunami, a storm surge itself builds relatively slowly.  Much of the damage from surge is actually going to be from breaking wave action closer to the coast impacting huge surface areas of the buildings that the surge is enveloping.  Notice in his video how Josh was able to wade out to get the trapped residents.  I wouldn't be surprised if we find that at least some of the buildings were left standing because of the surge farther inland.

 

4) That blowdown picture posted earlier, if my eyes aren't deceiving me, is rather telling.  I'm not sure the exact strength of the trunks, root system, or even what species of tree that is.  I'm gonna take a wild guess, though, and guess that, since it's a very typhoon-prone area, the tree life has likely had to adapt to wind.  That makes that blowdown all the more incredible.

 

I'd rather wait to hear what Josh has to say about his estimate of peak intensity before jumping to conclusions.  He typically has a very good estimate of intensity, seldom a major overestimate, as most personal estimates are.

[ncforecaster89]

I hope some people in this thread will soon be on a plane to go help the victims.

I for one have already committed to offering financial resources, and hope others who are able, might do the same.

[Ed Lizard]

holy crap,OT but maybe someone can explain the mixed use of English. that reporters on the ground video I am sure is just a very small glimpse of the extent. 

 

 

400 years of Spanish rule, some older words, ventana, pero, basura, borrowed from Spanish but after losing the American colonies the Spanish feared an educated populace would be a rebellious one, so they did not educate the natives.  50 years of American rule, and the US was already preparing the Philippines for independence before the Japanese invasion.  The US followed the original timeline, the RP might have been better if the US delayed total independence because of the years lost in the Japanese occupation.  The Americans dealt with some rebellion in the Muslim dominated Southern provinces, but since the plan was independence all along, didn't fear the natives learning to read and right.

 

Our church pastor and the nurse at our final baby's delivery spoke Spanish only because they both went to the most prestigious college in the RP, Sto. Tomas, and Spanish was a required class.  Really benefits both our pastor, who says the Spanish Mass, and the nurse, who is trilingual in an  area of Houston where not everyone speaks English.

 

As mentioned before, the dialect around Manila is dominant, but with so many dialects, many Filipinos speak some English, and will talk in "Tag-lish". 

[Ed Lizard]

Donate money to established charities already in the area, preferably with fairly low overhead/admin costs.

[BxEngine]

"We need the videos to show how bad it is to get donations" doesnt hold water. There isnt a need to ride out a storm to get aftermath pictures.

[Tullioz]

For those who want to help out financially or otherwise I have started a thread to see if there is enough interest. If you want to help the people affected by Typhoon Haiyan and be assured that 100% of your donation will go to those who are in the most need, this is the way to do it. I will be contributing $1,200 to this effort and hope others can donate enough to make this happen. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41654-relief-effort-for-those-affected-by-typhoon-haiyan/

[Ed Lizard]

For those who want to help out financially or otherwise I have started a thread to see if there is enough interest. If you want to help the people affected by Typhoon Haiyan and be assured that 100% of your donation will go to those who are in the most need, this is the way to do it. I will be contributing $1,200 to this effort and hope others can donate enough to make this happen. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41654-relief-effort-for-those-affected-by-typhoon-haiyan/

 

Might not be a bad thing if a healthy chunk of the AmWx community helped out.

[Ginx snewx]

Sebastian Rhodes Stampa, head of the UNDAC team, reported this morning that there is an unprecedented level of destruction.

"The last time I saw something of this scale was in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami," according to Stampa. "This is destruction on a massive scale

[ncforecaster89]

Sebastian Rhodes Stampa, head of the UNDAC team, reported this morning that there is an unprecedented level of destruction.

"The last time I saw something of this scale was in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami," according to Stampa. "This is destruction on a massive scale

I must admit that I didn't foresee a storm surge achieving the height that the preliminary info is suggesting may have occurred in places like Tacloban. I didn't think it would exceed 20 feet. It appears I underestimated it. With such a massive surge, the reference to the 2004 Tsunami is a fair correlation to make.

[WNash]

Sebastian Rhodes Stampa, head of the UNDAC team, reported this morning that there is an unprecedented level of destruction.

"The last time I saw something of this scale was in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami," according to Stampa. "This is destruction on a massive scale

There's a lesson here in selection bias. Remember yesterday when the narrative in the media coverage and on here was that the effects of Haiyan/Yolanda were not as bad as feared, presumably because of the lateral speed of the typhoon? Apparently the real reason was that the favorable video was either before the worst of the storm or taken from less hard hit areas, so of course it was easy to get out of the damaged area and be broadcast first. We have such arrogance that we think we should instantaneously know everything, everywhere, and make immediate judgements.

[Ed Lizard]

Josh's pressure readings have been used in NHC post storm reports (and he has even been credited), so the claim that he does no science is, on its face, wrong...

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, guys--

 

Not going to delve into this debate-- it bores the daylights out of me.  I chase for the thrill first-- because intense cyclones just really excite me in a way I can't describe-- and for data collection second; I'm a serious weather nerd and get excited by sharp pressure dips. When the NHC reassesses a cyclone's intensity because of my data, I get a small thrill from it.  It y'all don't like that, I don't know what to tell ya.

 

This having been said... Yes, I believe we made a difference and saved lives during Haiyan.  I didn't go there to help people, but I just instinctively threw my camera down and hugged three absolutely hysterical children to calm them down as the cyclone started really pounding the building.  I'm not good with children and I didn't plan to be compassionate-- it was just a human moment.  And then when the sh*t really hit the fan and first-floor guests were smashing their windows and screaming for help because their rooms were filling with water and they couldn't open their doors... again, we didn't plan to be helpful or think about it, it was just an instinctual reaction to throw the cameras down and fight like hell through the water to drag them out. I lost that camera-- it floated away in a flower pot as the lobby filled with water, and my fellow chaser, Mark, ripped his leg open-- to the bone-- on a piece of roofing trying to pull a woman out through her window.

 

I believe our net impact on Tacloban City was positive.  The old women, the disabled girl, the mother who we dragged out of windows and across the surge on mattresses, the dude in the wheelchair who we dragged up a flight of stairs as windows were blowing out-- they sure seemed appreciative.  (The entire next day, victims were treating Mark like a fallen hero-- one even came to our room to give thanks.)

 

But, again, the ethical discussion is boring to me.  

 

James and I consider this chase the absolute pinnacle of our careers on so many levels and we have no regrets.

 

Carry on.

[Amped]

It's great hear the data is still alive. Can't wait to see it.

 

 

Oh ad I guess it's pretty cool the chasers survived.

[Eyewall2005]

Josh iam glad you guys are ok..after going through andrew in 92 i can relate to the emotions iam sure you experienced. This event is likely to stay with you forever. Its been 20+ yrs since andrew hit sfl and i still remember it like it was yesterday.

[apm]

Josh,

 

Any pressure or wind data to report?

 

Hey, guys--

 

Not going to delve into this debate-- it bores the daylights out of me.  I chase for the thrill first-- because intense cyclones just really excite me in a way I can't describe-- and for data collection second; I'm a serious weather nerd and get excited by sharp pressure dips. When the NHC reassesses a cyclone's intensity because of my data, I get a small thrill from it.  It y'all don't like that, I don't know what to tell ya.

 

This having been said... Yes, I believe we made a difference and saved lives during Haiyan.  I didn't go there to help people, but I just instinctively threw my camera down and hugged three absolutely hysterical children to calm them down as the cyclone started really pounding the building.  I'm not good with children and I didn't plan to be compassionate-- it was just a human moment.  And then when the sh*t really hit the fan and first-floor guests were smashing their windows and screaming for help because their rooms were filling with water and they couldn't open their doors... again, we didn't plan to be helpful or think about it, it was just an instinctual reaction to throw the cameras down and fight like hell through the water to drag them out. I lost that camera-- it floated away in a flower pot as the lobby filled with water, and my fellow chaser, Mark, ripped his leg open-- to the bone-- on a piece of roofing trying to pull a woman out through her window.

 

I believe our net impact on Tacloban City was positive.  The old women, the disabled girl, the mother who we dragged out of windows and across the surge on mattresses, the dude in the wheelchair who we dragged up a flight of stairs as windows were blowing out-- they sure seemed appreciative.  (The entire next day, victims were treating Mark like a fallen hero-- one even came to our room to give thanks.)

 

But, again, the ethical discussion is boring to me.  

 

James and I consider this chase the absolute pinnacle of our careers on so many levels and we have no regrets.

 

Carry on.

[BxEngine]

Hey, guys--

Not going to delve into this debate-- it bores the daylights out of me. I chase for the thrill first-- because intense cyclones just really excite me in a way I can't describe-- and for data collection second; I'm a serious weather nerd and get excited by sharp pressure dips. When the NHC reassesses a cyclone's intensity because of my data, I get a small thrill from it. It y'all don't like that, I don't know what to tell ya.

This having been said... Yes, I believe we made a difference and saved lives during Haiyan. I didn't go there to help people, but I just instinctively threw my camera down and hugged three absolutely hysterical children to calm them down as the cyclone started really pounding the building. I'm not good with children and I didn't plan to be compassionate-- it was just a human moment. And then when the sh*t really hit the fan and first-floor guests were smashing their windows and screaming for help because their rooms were filling with water and they couldn't open their doors... again, we didn't plan to be helpful or think about it, it was just an instinctual reaction to throw the cameras down and fight like hell through the water to drag them out. I lost that camera-- it floated away in a flower pot as the lobby filled with water, and my fellow chaser, Mark, ripped his leg open-- to the bone-- on a piece of roofing trying to pull a woman out through her window.

I believe our net impact on Tacloban City was positive. The old women, the disabled girl, the mother who we dragged out of windows and across the surge on mattresses, the dude in the wheelchair who we dragged up a flight of stairs as windows were blowing out-- they sure seemed appreciative. (The entire next day, victims were treating Mark like a fallen hero-- one even came to our room to give thanks.)

But, again, the ethical discussion is boring to me.

James and I consider this chase the absolute pinnacle of our careers on so many levels and we have no regrets.

Carry on.

Glad you are ok...amazing story. Get home safe.

[ZackH]

Hey, guys--

Not going to delve into this debate-- it bores the daylights out of me. I chase for the thrill first-- because intense cyclones just really excite me in a way I can't describe-- and for data collection second; I'm a serious weather nerd and get excited by sharp pressure dips. When the NHC reassesses a cyclone's intensity because of my data, I get a small thrill from it. It y'all don't like that, I don't know what to tell ya.

This having been said... Yes, I believe we made a difference and saved lives during Haiyan. I didn't go there to help people, but I just instinctively threw my camera down and hugged three absolutely hysterical children to calm them down as the cyclone started really pounding the building. I'm not good with children and I didn't plan to be compassionate-- it was just a human moment. And then when the sh*t really hit the fan and first-floor guests were smashing their windows and screaming for help because their rooms were filling with water and they couldn't open their doors... again, we didn't plan to be helpful or think about it, it was just an instinctual reaction to throw the cameras down and fight like hell through the water to drag them out. I lost that camera-- it floated away in a flower pot as the lobby filled with water, and my fellow chaser, Mark, ripped his leg open-- to the bone-- on a piece of roofing trying to pull a woman out through her window.

I believe our net impact on Tacloban City was positive. The old women, the disabled girl, the mother who we dragged out of windows and across the surge on mattresses, the dude in the wheelchair who we dragged up a flight of stairs as windows were blowing out-- they sure seemed appreciative. (The entire next day, victims were treating Mark like a fallen hero-- one even came to our room to give thanks.)

But, again, the ethical discussion is boring to me.

James and I consider this chase the absolute pinnacle of our careers on so many levels and we have no regrets.

Carry on.

Fantastic post

[donsutherland1]

Hey, guys--

 

Not going to delve into this debate-- it bores the daylights out of me.  I chase for the thrill first-- because intense cyclones just really excite me in a way I can't describe-- and for data collection second; I'm a serious weather nerd and get excited by sharp pressure dips. When the NHC reassesses a cyclone's intensity because of my data, I get a small thrill from it.  It y'all don't like that, I don't know what to tell ya.

 

This having been said... Yes, I believe we made a difference and saved lives during Haiyan.  I didn't go there to help people, but I just instinctively threw my camera down and hugged three absolutely hysterical children to calm them down as the cyclone started really pounding the building.  I'm not good with children and I didn't plan to be compassionate-- it was just a human moment.  And then when the sh*t really hit the fan and first-floor guests were smashing their windows and screaming for help because their rooms were filling with water and they couldn't open their doors... again, we didn't plan to be helpful or think about it, it was just an instinctual reaction to throw the cameras down and fight like hell through the water to drag them out. I lost that camera-- it floated away in a flower pot as the lobby filled with water, and my fellow chaser, Mark, ripped his leg open-- to the bone-- on a piece of roofing trying to pull a woman out through her window.

 

I believe our net impact on Tacloban City was positive.  The old women, the disabled girl, the mother who we dragged out of windows and across the surge on mattresses, the dude in the wheelchair who we dragged up a flight of stairs as windows were blowing out-- they sure seemed appreciative.  (The entire next day, victims were treating Mark like a fallen hero-- one even came to our room to give thanks.)

 

But, again, the ethical discussion is boring to me.  

 

James and I consider this chase the absolute pinnacle of our careers on so many levels and we have no regrets.

 

Carry on.

I'm glad your safe, as are the others. Have a safe trip home.

[canderson]

Josh, thanks for your post. So very glad you guys are OK (Mark's leg wound notwithstanding). Thank you for everything you do for science and most importantly thank you for being in a position to saves multiple lives which otherwise would be gone today. Remarkable efforts.

[andyhb]

Saw a report of 200-300 fatalities in a municipality north of Guiuan that missed the eyewall in Eastern Samar.

[LakeEffectKing]

Josh,

Many props to you.  Some will never understand the "thrill", whether it be tornadoes, hurricanes/typhoons, blizzards, LES, etc....nor should you care that they understand....

.

.

That said......WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING!!

[Sickman]

Josh, firstly I am very relieved to hear you guys made it through this okay.

 

I won't ask for much in the way of details, because I'm sure you're still decompressing and processing everything you've experienced, although I'm as anxious as anyone to hear every little detail.

 

But I do have one question:

 

When you left for Tacloban a few days ago, I know you were looking to experience (yawn) another WPac super typhoon.  With hindsight being 20/20, would you have still gone had you known that this would be not just a super typhoon, but the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history?

[FPizz]

Here's an indisputable fact. The storm was going to happen whether josh was there or not. What he can share with us after the fact is cool in my book.

Best post here

[99lsfm2]

Josh, thanks for the spot on Candid Post, Love the Carry on. It means something different to me than most here. Glad for the most part the crew is intact. I hope Mark gets the care he needs soon.

[Sunny and Warm]

so any real numbers on pressure and wind yet??