iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013

[WNash]

The affects of this storm will be felt long after the storm has passed. Even years....

So as bad as things are immediately following the typhoon, they will get much worse before they get better. And for some of the very poor in that region, things unfortunately will never get better.

Thanks for detailing the relief difficulties they'll expect. This is the real world aftermath, and the humanitarian version of the famous NWS Katrina "fire ants" warning.

Serious question: a few people keep talking about how they're sure that the chasers are involved in disaster aftermath, helping the most stricken survivors. I trust these guys are ok-- a more experienced bunch you literally could not find-- but are they in touch with Red Cross/Crescent or other disaster relief NGOs or do they have disaster relief training? Rescue work is dangerous in any case, let alone when you don't speak the language and can't effectively work with a small team-- I almost hope they're NOT wading in the waters trying to help. But it seems like having a small group already on the ground in the aftermath of a deadly storm, able to do an immediate survey with aid needs in mind, is exactly what relief groups need.

[Ian]

Not a stretch they are helping. Doubtful they have power to do video cuts so what else you gonna do?

Not a hit to Josh. No qualms there but funny how many assume chasers are out to help the locals. Usually only by accident...

[f2tornado]

Not a stretch they are helping. Doubtful they have power to do video cuts so what else you gonna do?

Not a hit to Josh. No qualms there but funny how many assume chasers are out to help the locals. Usually only by accident...

 

This is very true. Chasers go out for the thrill of the storm but many are very happy to assist when possible. You see this a lot with chasers in the Plains though most are not equipped to handle much more than phone or radio communication to report what they are seeing.

[WNash]

I just worry a bit that the risk is even higher to them in the aftermath than in the storm itself-- disease, submerged debris, etc. But obviously these guys aren't the least bit risk averse. I'm just thinking that they are uniquely well positioned to assist in assessing logistics planning efforts, which might be even more valuable than wading in the water doing rescue work. Off topic, I know, but just a thought.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Top post in this thread with a lot of information, and being continually updated.  should be a good place to get information/pictures/video the next couple of days.  Hope this is okay to post.

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1q5gkt/video_emerging_from_the_philippines_as_typhoon/

 

 

 

(i'd ignore the majority of the rest of the posts in that thread, they're a little maddening, as reddit can get sometimes)

[eyewall]

Just so people know the language in the Philippines is Tagalog . That might help if you are trying to throw anything in Google translate.

[WNash]

This is very true. Chasers go out for the thrill of the storm but many are very happy to assist when possible. You see this a lot with chasers in the Plains though most are not equipped to handle much more than phone or radio communication to report what they are seeing.

Yeah, it may be serendipity but having lots of people around all over the place in a disaster situation with high tech communications equipment sounds like an unequivocally good thing. And it gets overlooked when ignorant people b**ch about chasers being "in the way." But Josh et al. are even better situated and more experienced. I'm grateful they're there in so many ways.

[somethingfunny]

I am surprised that they don't carry satellite-based communications equipment.

[Tullioz]

Just so people know the language in the Philippines is Tagalog . That might help if you are trying to throw anything in Google translate.

While that is the national language, it is mostly spoken in the capital region. You will find it difficult to translate posts you find online from people in the Philippines as there are so many languages spoken here. The language spoken in Leyte is mostly Cebuano. Waray-Waray is also widely spoken in that region as well as on Samar Island. Here in Davao Bisyan is the most common language spoken. There are dozens more depending on the region or island one resides so google translate is useless in many cases.   

[Ed Lizard]

Just so people know the language in the Philippines is Tagalog . That might help if you are trying to throw anything in Google translate.

 

My experience with the Pinoys at church is that most speak decent, if somewhat accented, English.   Never asked where they are from.  Because my pastor is a Sto. Tomas grad (per him, the Harvard of Asia), I follow them on FB and the posts often contain complete English paragraphs.   Also noticed from watching news video, older words not in the language, like ventana (window) borrowed from Spanish, and a lot of newer words/phrases like "storm surge" used.  I *think* the RP is something like India, because they are various regional dialects (Tagolog, I believe, is based on the dialect near Metro Manila) English is something of a second language or "lingua franca" for a healthy percentage of the inhabitants.  The Americans, in less than 50 years, did a better job spreading English than the Spanish did spreading their language in 400 years.

[Ian]

Yeah, it may be serendipity but having lots of people around all over the place in a disaster situation with high tech communications equipment sounds like an unequivocally good thing. And it gets overlooked when ignorant people b**ch about chasers being "in the way." But Josh et al. are even better situated and more experienced. I'm grateful they're there in so many ways.

It's just a very happy view of what chasers do.  Hurricane chasing obviously a bit different because you are more guaranteed to place yourself in a disaster zone if you do it right whereas most tornado chasers only come across that stuff once in a blue moon.  Granted the group is much smaller but I don't recall too many stories of hurricane chasers doing much other than trying to get out of the area as soon as possible in the aftermath.. not necessarily starting up a new Red Cross etc.  Again, no qualms there for me personally  That's not what they are there to do.  Obviously, people who have a conscience are going to assist if they can/must... 

[LocoAko]

While that is the national language, it is mostly spoken in the capital region. You will find it difficult to translate posts you find online from people in the Philippines as there are so many languages spoken here. The language spoken in Leyte is mostly Cebuano. Waray-Waray is also widely spoken in that region as well as on Samar Island. Here in Davao Bisyan is the most common language spoken. There are dozens more depending on the region or island one resides so google translate is useless in many cases.   

 

I remember reading I think on Wikipedia that Waray-waray is spoken by 98% of people in Guiuan though I don't know about Tacloban. There are over 100 languages spoken in the Philippines. 

[Ian]

It's a huge shame this storm was not sampled at all. Disaster for science.  Needs to be a push to get a drone on base somewhere in the Pacific. One could argue it's a national security interest if you wanted to. Hopefully Josh et al got some good stuff there. 

[tacoman25]

CNN just had a climate expert from Columbia University on right now and they tried their damnedest to bait him into blaming Haiyan on global warming, but he did a fantastic job of explaining the all of the aspects and uncertainties surrounding that.

 

Then the host of course cuts him off and before moving on says "we seem to be getting these 100 year storms every other year"...ughhh

 

Anyhow, hoping we hear from these chasers soon but I'd guess they are in the midst of helping people in dire need right now.

 

 

Perhaps he doesn't realize that "100 year" only applies to a certain place? There are going to be dozens of 100 year storms every year all over the globe.

[eyewall]

Wow I wasn't aware of so many other languages there. You learn something everyday.

[eyewall]

 

Perhaps he doesn't realize that "100 year" only applies to a certain place? There are going to be dozens of 100 year storms every year all over the globe.

 

Also a 100 year event simply means there is about a 1% chance of it occurring in any given year at a particular location. It doesn't mean you have to wait 100 years for it to happen again necessarily.

[patrick05]

GMA news reported at least 30 bodies found so far in the road leading south out of Tacloban... a female reporter was also interviewed and was very emotional as the church that they stayed at had its roof blown away; one of the more profound interviews I've seen on tv so far... they were staying in the town of Palo south of Tacloban and looks like it got a direct hit from the eye...

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's a huge shame this storm was not sampled at all. Disaster for science.  Needs to be a push to get a drone on base somewhere in the Pacific. One could argue it's a national security interest if you wanted to. Hopefully Josh et al got some good stuff there. 

Seriously? That is a shame. Doesn't the US still have large naval and air assets in the area?

[patrick05]

Seriously? That is a shame. Doesn't the US still have large naval and air assets in the area?

 

they have assets but they don't necessarily have a base in the philippines; the nearest one is in Okinawa and they don't fly recon out of there either... with all the cost cutting, it'd be unlikely for them to do so... what would be ideal, i think, is to have the countries in WPAC (Japan, Philippines, South Korea, maybe China too) to have coordination with USA and share financial responsibilities in undertaking recon missions...

[Derecho!]

Seriously? That is a shame. Doesn't the US still have large naval and air assets in the area?

 

We only do storm penetration with WC-130s and the NOAA P-3s now. They're based in CONUS and it costs money to forward base them and operate them in the West Pac, or to buy enough of them that we could cover the West PAC and LANT at the same time. The choice was made not to spend the money.   For the purposes of the region and the Navy, we really don't need aircraft recon from a warning and safety perspective anymore; it's a pure scientific interest perspective.

 

We have large bases in Japan and Okinawa. We officially, technically, have no "bases" in the Phillipines anymore though we do a lot of port visits and "rotational" deployments of some SOF-y things.

 

Japan has had the financial resources, equipment, and training to do TC recon for decades, and they've chosen not to and clearly believe they're are fine doing warning and forecasting by satellite. One could argue they "free ride" off the scientific value of the LANT recon by the US, as anything we learn about TC structure and intensity from hurricane recon applies to Typhoons as well.  

[Santa Clause]

Hope Josh and company are doing there best to help while staying safe. Aftermath has some severe dangers.

[J.Mike]

Hope Josh and company are doing there best to help while staying safe. Aftermath has some severe dangers.

+1. I've just read this whole thread, and I've got goosebumps. Worried about Josh & Co. but he his driven and is a survivor

[WishingForWarmWeather]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Philippines/comments/1q426f/typhoon_yolanda_live_thread_post/

 

 

Here is another from /r/Philippines itself, really good info here as well. 

[Santa Clause]

+1. I've just read this whole thread, and I've got goosebumps. Worried about Josh & Co. but he his driven and is a survivor

Yea, I agree j.mike worried, but know if anyone could pull this thing off it's Josh.

[Jonger]

CNN just had a climate expert from Columbia University on right now and they tried their damnedest to bait him into blaming Haiyan on global warming, but he did a fantastic job of explaining the all of the aspects and uncertainties surrounding that.

 

Then the host of course cuts him off and before moving on says "we seem to be getting these 100 year storms every other year"...ughhh

 

Anyhow, hoping we hear from these chasers soon but I'd guess they are in the midst of helping people in dire need right now.

 

 

Perhaps he doesn't realize that "100 year" only applies to a certain place? There are going to be dozens of 100 year storms every year all over the globe.

That last part is hitting the nail on the head.

[canderson]

Via the AP - four dead so far.

 

 

MANILA, Philippines — One of the strongest storms on record slammed into the central Philippines on Friday, killing at least four people, forcing hundreds of thousands from their homes and knocking out power and communications in several provinces. But the nation appeared to avoid a major disaster because the rapidly moving typhoon blew away before wreaking more damage, officials said.

[somethingfunny]

Quite a lot of information and video on this article, with a reporter from Palo.

 

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/334590/news/nation/at-least-33-dead-as-super-typhoon-yolanda-pounds-central-philippines

[Santa Clause]

Like that I'm hearing it may not have been as bad as we all feared.

[patrick05]

Like that I'm hearing it may not have been as bad as we all feared.

 

not yet at least.. i posted in the other thread that they saw at least 30 bodies on a road leading south out of Tacloban... bodies that washed from the surge lying on roads... and that is just for one town... they haven't even reached the isolated towns in parts of Leyte and especially in Samar Island.. not to be a downer but i won't be surprised if there's at least a few hundred people dead...

[wi_fl_wx]

Judging from the radar loop, the southern eyewall looked stronger, but that may have been because the northern eyewall went over that first island (Guiuan?). So Tacloban was probably fortunate in that respect.

 

I suspect that eventually we will find evidence of 150kt+ winds (forest blowdowns perhaps?). Often a slow moving, weaker storm can be more dangerous since rainfall is the main cause of mass casualties.